The World's Most Expensive Photo-op

The Chosun Ilbo has confirmed my earlier suspicions of why the South Korean government is pushing for a second inter-Korean summit:

Ruling Uri Party chairman Kim Geun-tae said late last month that he will ask the president to dispatch a special envoy to North Korea for the purpose of promoting an “unconditional” inter-Korean summit, and the former Uri Party chairman Chung Dong-young said March or April next year would be the right time for the summit, when the presidential election is some six months away.

This government is now obsessed with an inter-Korean summit. Until the middle of its tenure, officials asked what the point would be unless the North Korean nuclear crisis has been resolved. But their rhetoric has recently changed: now the two heads of state must meet unconditionally. President Roh Moo-hyun keeps saying the North’s nuclear weapons are nothing to worry about: he is begging Kim Jong-il for a meeting.

The Kim Dae-jung administration paid Pyongyang US$500 million to make the first inter-Korean summit in 2000 happen. Having extracted that much money as the price for meeting a vigorous South Korean president in the first half of his tenure, North Korea is surely going to demand several times the money for meeting a lame duck. There is a strong smell of hustling for a summit about the government’s refusal to impose any additional sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear test, and in its earmarking of W1 trillion (US$1=W923) for “economic cooperation” with the North next year.

I hadn’t thought of the political angle, but yes an inter-Korean summit would appear on the surface to be something that would boost the Uri Party’s chances in next year’s elections, but I think it would back fire if South Korea gets nothing in return for the summit.  I think a second inter-Korean summit is a distinct possibility because President Roh appears intent on sending as much hard earned South Korean taxpayers money up North as possible to secure such a summit.

If a summit does happen I expect Kim Jong-il to only make vague promises and declarations with no substance.  President Roh understands Kim Jong-il won’t denuclearize or make any major concessions, but that isn’t what a second inter-Korean summit is about.  It is all about the photo-op of him toasting Kim Jong-il.  I think that would be a fitting legacy for President Roh.

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usinkorea
17 years ago

I haven't been as down on Kim Dae Jung as some K-bloggers, but if we attach Roh and Uri as part of his legacy, which I think is something that has to be considered seriously if you are judging history, then the Kim presidency must be considered a rather bad failure.

The 2000 SK-NK Summit has pretty much lost all the luster it shone brightly with at the start for 2 highly fundamental reasons:

1. We know he paid Kim Jong Il for it at a time when NK was struggling for survival. And that has to mean that Kim Dae Jung basically subsidized the worst regime on earth's tyranny over its own people.

2. All the goodwill (and money) generated (at least on the SK side) thanks to the 2000 summit and continuation of the Sunshine policy —- has failed miserably to produce any significant changes in North Korea.

Since the 2000 summit, it has become clear that the policies began by Kim Dae Jung have become nothing more than a process of propping Pyongyang up.

I believe that is how history (at least outside of South Korea) will judge this period in Korean history some 20 years from now.

If we look beyond the Summit and changes it did or did not bring, what do we have since 1998?

I'm drawing a blank.

South Korea's relations with other nations has not particularly strengthened in benefit to SK. Meaning – there have been no clear cut, significant foreign policy gains.

In fact, the relationships with the two most important nations in relation to South Korea's future have become considerably worse: Japan and the US. You can safely say that the ties between both nations are at pretty much the lowest ebb in decades – especially on the US side.

And again, a Uri and Kim and Roh-led government could have still come away with positive gains for itself if it had accomplished something to counter the negatives:

If SK had been able to successfully pull China into a closer relationship, hacking away at the US and Japan relationship would not have stung as much. But, China is no closer to being a staunch ally of SK today than it was in 1998.

On the economic front, I don't know if you can lay the majority of the blame on the Kim and Roh administrations or not, but the best you can say about the success of SK economic policies is that the economy recovered from the 1998 IMF bailout.

If the FTA with Chile and deals with China had made a dent in South Korean society's "hermit kingdom" mentality on trade issues, we could give post-1998 Korean leadership a big Kudo.

But, if you go back and look at how the government and society handled these big economic stories, you will see the FTA and other agreements were done in such a manner that next to no changes have come in the hermit kingdom mentality.

And the government is directly to blame: the way the ROK government handled the Chile FTA was particularly glaring as a lack of leadership. SK's gains in its trade with Chile were one-sided in Korea's favor, but the government still tried to keep the terms of the agreement secret — and worse by far — when the terms became public knowledge, what did the government do? — immediately ran out and said that the deal would be renegociated because it was too harmful to Korea's interests —– basically echoing the hermit kingdom theory.

The Kim Dae Jung presidency was a watershed moment in Korean history. It and Roh's election could have been a major turning point for the better in South Korea's history. Both were a clear sign that democracy has flowered in South Korea, but rather than using the momentum to spring board SK into a better future, these two presidencies have done little more positive than towing the line while at the same time undermining the future.

At least we can probably conclude that saving a better future is not too late.

The damage and lack of movement forward have not become irreversible.

And the reason I went off on this tangent was to say:

the fact Uri and crew are desperately trying to arrange a 2nd summit just shows they have really lost touch with anything that can be considered sound leadership.

A 2nd summit is NOT likely to produce any thing remotely close to the momentum Kim Dae Jung's 2000 deal gave to South Korea's love affair with the North.

Meaning: the 2nd summit isn't likely to really wow South Koreans.

And it will surely be looked at with cynical, disbelieving eyes in the US, Japan and elsewhere after the North has done nothing but screw Seoul up the rear since the 2000 summit.

trackback
17 years ago

[…] THE KOREAS – The World’s Most Expensive Photo-op “President Roh understands Kim Jong-il won’t denuclearize or make any major concessions, but that isn’t what a second inter-Korean summit is about. It is all about the photo-op of him toasting Kim Jong-il. I think that would be a fitting legacy for by myrick @ 12:30 pm. Filed under Uncategorized   [link] […]

Joshua
17 years ago

Hmmm. I see no mathematical possibility that it can backfire significantly.

You wouldn't normally make a blanket statement like that about politics in Korea or anywhere else, but you can when the prez's approval rating is 5.8% (note statistical significance of the decimal point).

scott
17 years ago

The summit will probably go through and it will be a big success for the Woori boys and North Korea. Here's how it works:

1. Yes, a big amount of money will go to North Korea but this will not come out until years later, just like Kim Dae Jung's illegal payment didn't surface right away. They suffered no political fallout from the first payoff when it become disclosed, and of course pardoned everyone involved. Why not do it again?

2. North Korea knows that if it wants to keep the money rolling in, they can't allow the GNP to take over the Presidency. This means that you can expect some kind of radical results to come out of the next summit (probably they will agree to dismantle all nukes). Months later, just when the political elections in South Korea are most intense, they will actually allow some UN inspectors in to observe the dismantling process.

Maybe North Korea will even allow some aging family members in North Korea to go to the South to live out their last few remaining years. There will be a lot of love flowing around and the Korean people will see that the Sunshine Policy has finally worked.

3. With such dramatic results, the election will shift back to the left. This will probably be solidified when the newest American GI 'scandal' breaks out about that time. What will it be? Hard to say, but they'll find something to blow out of proportion. The FTA talks will continue to flounder, and the Korean Press will pin all the blame on the arrogant and bullying US. Remember that the 2002 hate fest (which came during an election year) did not really have a whole lot to build on from a rational analysis (not many Koreans really exerted much energy on the accidental killings of the middle school girls until months later when the election process reached its peak). It won't be hard to create this atmosphere again.

4. Once the election is won and the Norcs are assured of 5 more years of Sunshine, the UN inspectors will be kicked out again and the nuclear program will continue with barely a hitch. The relationship between the Koreas will quickly revert to what it is now and Kim Jong Il's regime is assured for 5 more glorious years.

It all starts with the Summit…

mike mcstay
17 years ago

Gi you might want to read this article and follow the links, this could become very interesting.

http://mikemcstay.blogspot.com/2006/12/when-i-usu

trackback
17 years ago

[…] Can anyone name anyone from the ruling government that has thanked the USFK soldiers serving in Korea for their service?  Ban is the only one I know of.  You would think that with now over 4 years in the Blue House that President Roh Moo-hyun would have found the time to make the hour drive up MSR3 to Uijongbu to thank some of the soldiers there for giving a year of their lives away from their families to help protect the republic that he leads.  Yet some how Roh has time to set a side to visit with Kim Jong-il?  Heck former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld flew to Iraq to thank the Korean Army soldiers stationed there for their service and Roh can’t even make it up to Uijongbu?  Heck I’ll even pay his subway fair and cab ride to CRC if he wants.  At least Ban did make the drive up to Uijongbu which means something and if he can turn the UN around it will mean even more. […]

trackback
17 years ago

[…] Imagine if the billions of dollars of aid from South Korea to Kim Jong-il was instead used on buying people out of starvation and despotism.  […]

trackback
17 years ago

[…] THE KOREAS – The World’s Most Expensive Photo-op “President Roh understands Kim Jong-il won’t denuclearize or make any major concessions, but that isn’t what a second inter-Korean summit is about. It is all about the photo-op of him toasting Kim Jong-il. I think that would be a fitting legacy for by myrick @ 12:30 pm. Filed under Uncategorized [Comments (0)]  [link] […]

trackback
16 years ago

[…] Kalani Find Kalani. Sponsored by: http://www.Toseeka.org [Found on Ads by Ask.com] The World’s Most Expensive Photo-op at ROK Drop ROK Drop. Blog. About. Archives. Photos. ROK Drop Shop " Korea’s Playboy Model Release New […]

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