North Korea Backing Down?

Not really, they are basically making the same old demands they always do; that they want bi-lateral talks with the US so they can get their pay day for saying they will give up nuclear weapons:

North Korea informed China it may drop its plan to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks with the communist country, a former South Korean lawmaker said Sunday.

The North also denied speculation that its nuclear test was imminent and said the regime has not raised the alert level of the country’s military, said Jang Sung-min, citing a telephone conversation with an unidentified Chinese diplomatic official.

North Korea warned the Chinese official, however, that it would accelerate its preparations for a nuclear test if the United States moves toward imposing sanctions or launching a military attack, Jang said, citing his contact.

The Chinese official was informed of North Korea’s stance by North Korean officials Sunday afternoon, Jang said.

While this is going on, North Korea has also turned to their lackeys within South Korea to begin lobbying for the US to hold direct talks.  Former President Kim Dae-jung who bribed for $156 million won the Nobel Peace Prize for his failed Sunshine Policy was on CNN’s Talk Asia saying the US needs to hold bi-lateral talks:

South Korea’s former President Kim Dae-jung said that the United States should give North Korea one more chance even though it is on the brink of a nuclear test.

In an interview with CNN’s Talk Asia on Sunday, he urged the U.S. to engage in direct talks with North Korea so that the isolated country could give up its nuclear ambition and come back to the negotiation table.

“Even former U.S. President Ronald Reagan had dialogue with the Soviet Union, which he branded as an `evil empire,”’ Kim told the U.S. 24-hour news channel. “I can hardly understand why the U.S. does not hold talks with North Korea.”

First of all, North Korea is not the equivalent of the Soviet Union.  NK is one of the world’s poorest countries with a ruthless dictator who is trying to blackmail the US into giving him free aid.  The US is treating this as a regional problem that will require a regional solution with the country’s in the region.  That is what the six party talks are for.  What precedent is this going to set if the United States is expected to hold bi-lateral discussions with every two bit dictator in the world?  Here is a chance for major powers in the region like China to step up and show the world their global leadership credentials.

This is basically 1994 all over again.  North Korea needs a deal soon in order to keep the regime a float, but has no intentions of completely scrapping their nuclear weapons program.  Kim Jong-il not only needs the weapons for international prestige, but also for protection from any international attempts at regime removal and to appease the generals in his military that keep him in power.  If a deal is reached the North Koreans will just keep the program secret just like after the 1994 deal until they need more money again and 8 years down the road the US will be doing the same old song dance with these guys once again under a new US administration.

Kim Jong-il might also see the time as right now for a favorable deal because the Republicans are hurting at the polls with the elections coming up and major foreign policy success such as appearing striking a deal on the NK nuclear crisis may help the Republicans.  I think this is just one of many factors driving this crisis but I would be really surprised if President Bush makes any big policy changes in regards to North Korea even if there are political consequences.