Tag: missiles

Both the Unification and the Defense Ministries believe that North Korea will not execute a high level provocation before the U.S. presidential election; instead they will display a new missile:

North Korea appears to be preparing a measured show of force at an upcoming military parade marking the 75th anniversary of its ruling Workers’ Party, South Korea’s top inter-Korean official said Thursday.    

During a parliamentary audit hearing at the National Assembly, Minister of Unification Lee In-young presented a somewhat different forecast from Seoul’s military officials — as well as his own ministry — of what lay in store during Pyongyang’s big event Saturday, for which the regime has been preparing for months.  

“In the past, ahead of a U.S. presidential election, and to show off its nuclear or missile capacities, [the North] would actually fire or test [missiles],” Lee said. “But this time, we are getting indications that [Pyongyang] will conduct something on the level of lower intensity acts or shows of force.”  

Lee did not elaborate on what he meant by “lower intensity,” but according to his own ministry’s report to the National Assembly, Pyongyang was likely to unveil a new “strategic weapon” it has warned about for months, which could range from a new form of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to a submarine-launched ballistic missile.     

A similar prediction was made a day earlier by Seoul’s Minister of National Defense Suh Wook, who expressed agreement with a lawmaker’s assertion that the North was more likely to display a new missile than conduct an active provocation in the form of a weapons test.   

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but I think this shows that the North Koreans believe if they behave it will improve their chances of a deal to reduce sanctions with the next President.

I hope nobody is surprised by the fact missiles will reportedly be displayed in this parade.  What will be interesting is what kind of missiles?  If their mobile ICBMs are displayed I think that would be a clear sign to the Trump administration they are not giving them up:

Satellite imagery shows large numbers of tanks and other vehicles in a plaza in Pyongyang that the regime uses to practice for a military parade celebrating its 70th founding anniversary on Sept. 9, according to Voice of America on Thursday.

About 100 tanks and other mobile vehicles can be seen standing in formation according to their length and color and moving about in the plaza near Mirim Airport.

Six large vehicles about 12 to 14 m long, which looked capable of carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles, were also seen at the rear. [Chosun Ilbo]

Here is an excerpt from article forwarded to me that speculates how the Kim regime may try and use their missiles to launch provocations against the United States to cause a split in the US-ROK alliance:

You can read the rest at the link.  However, I don’t think the Kim regime would use their missiles to launch a provocation against the United States because the South Koreans would have to back US retaliations as part of the US-ROK alliance.  However, where things muddier is what if he launched a missile provocation against Japan?  Would the South Korean government be willing to back retaliation in support of Japan?

I think someone is definitely helping the North Koreans with their missile technology, but blaming Ukraine sounds like a Russian information operation:

Ukraine’s top diplomat in Seoul on Thursday denied allegations that North Korea might have obtained rocket engines used in its recently tested long-range missiles from Ukraine.

Charge d’Affaires Taras Fedunkiv, the acting Ukrainian ambassador to Seoul, still suspected that North Korea could not have been able to advance its missile technology “without outside help,” calling for an international probe to find “who was responsible.”

“The production lines for building these types of rockets in Ukraine were decommissioned in 1992. The expertise cannot be carried in the heads of rogue scientists. The instructions are included in complex manuals locked in top-security facilities guarded by our security forces,” he said in a written interview with Yonhap News Agency, citing Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin’s recent op-ed in The New York Times.

“Not only would it be virtually impossible for criminals to access these manuals, but also any effort could not go unnoticed by our government,” he added.

Citing a study by Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the New York Times reported on Aug. 14 that North Korea could have got its hands on technology needed for the success of the recent missile launches through black market purchases of rocket engines from Ukraine.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if it was the Russians helping the North Koreans master their long range rocket technology.

I am sure the Kim regime would be willing to sell their ballistic missiles to just about anyone with the cash to buy them even Nancy Pelosi:

The U.S. House minority leader expressed concerns Thursday about the possibility of North Korea transferring missiles and related technology beyond its borders, saying Pyongyang’s missile test-firings could be a “roadshow” aimed at selling the weapons.

“I’m concerned about North Korea for many reasons. But one of them, in addition to most of what you have heard, is that North Korea could be a proliferator,” Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told reporters during a news conference.

“And all of these demonstrations of strength are really a roadshow for them to sell to a rogue nation or lone wolf, or whoever, some very dangerous technology,” she said.

Concerns about North Korean missile threats have spiked in the U.S. after the communist nation successfully carried out its first test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile that is now capable of striking Alaska and could be further developed to reach the U.S. mainland.

Pelosi said her concerns about the North’s proliferation deepened after a trip to the North many years ago.

“When we went to Pyongyang, and we talked about missiles, we talked about MIAs and POWs, we talked about home, we talked about a number of subjects. But about the missiles, because the development of missiles was a national security issue of concern,” Pelosi said.

“They said, ‘Look, we just make these to sell. You want to buy them? We’ll sell them to you,'” she said.  [Yonhap]

If you live in Seoul and you are wondering how long it would take for North Korea to nuke you, here you go:

The Associated Press(AP) reports that it takes zero to six minutes for a North Korean missile to hit Seoul, around ten minutes to hit Japan and 30 to 39 minutes to reach the capital of the United States.

The AP revealed the data on Wednesday, citing David Wright, scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, and missile analyst Markus Schiller at ST Analytics, a space technology and rocketry consulting company in Germany.

The two experts said if North Korea launches a strike against South Korea using its conventional artillery north of the Demilitarized Zone, the first wave of shells could land with essentially no warning.  [KBS World Radio]

You can read more at the link.

Another example of the urgency the Trump administration has put on stopping North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

The Central Intelligence Agency has created a special team dealing exclusively with North Korea in an unusual move underscoring the seriousness the United States attaches to the nuclear and missile threats from the communist nation.

The Korea Mission Center was established to “harness the full resources, capabilities, and authorities of the Agency in addressing the nuclear and ballistic missile threat posed by North Korea,” CIA said in a statement. “The new mission center draws on experienced officers from across the agency and integrates them in one entity to bring their expertise and creativity to bear against the North Korea target.”

A veteran CIA operations officer has been selected as the new assistant director for Korea and presides over the mission center, the statement said without identifying the officer, adding that the team will work closely with the intelligence community and the entire U.S. national security community.

“Creating the Korea Mission Center allows us to more purposefully integrate and direct CIA efforts against the serious threats to the United States and its allies emanating from North Korea,” CIA Director Mike Pompeo said. “It also reflects the dynamism and agility that CIA brings to evolving national security challenges.”  [Yonhap]

No one does a military parade quite like the North Koreans:

North Korea’s latest military hardware, including what analysts said appeared to be three kinds of intercontinental ballistic missiles, rolled through the North’s capital on Saturday, as the country showed off its military might amid heightened tensions with the United States.

As the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, watched from a platform, long columns of goose-stepping soldiers, accompanied by a fleet of tanks, missiles and rocket tubes, marched through a large plaza in the capital, Pyongyang, that was named after Mr. Kim’s grandfather Kim Il-sung, the country’s founding president.

Saturday was the 105th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birth and the North’s most important holiday, called the Day of the Sun. The United States, China and other regional powers had feared that North Korea might mark the occasion by conducting its sixth nuclear test or by launching an intercontinental ballistic missile. The United States sent a naval strike group to the area in a show of force.

But no seismic tremor emanated on Saturday morning from the North’s nuclear test site, where recent satellite photographs have shown what appeared to be preparations for an underground detonation.

South Korean analysts said Mr. Kim seemed to have decided to celebrate his grandfather’s birthday not with a nuclear test or a missile launching, but with a military parade meant to demonstrate his missile capabilities to his American foes.

To military analysts scrutinizing North Korea’s broadcast of the parade, the most noteworthy element seemed to be three types of long-range ballistic missiles, one of them apparently new.  [New York Times]

You can read the rest at the link, but remember that these new ICBMs have not been tested and could be mock ups for all we know.  The signaling that the Kim regime appears to be doing is to show the US that they are developing solid fuel ICBMs.  Missiles with solid fuel means they can be fired quicker due to not needing to be fueled.  They did recently successfully test fire the Pukguksong-2 intermediate range missile which uses solid fuel which shows they are developing the capability.

Most significant was that the Kim regime did not conduct a nuclear test yet.  It will be interesting to see if in the coming days if they will attempt to conduct one.  If not this is an indication that the US show of force worked to stop their planned nuclear test.

For further reading I recommend going over to CNN where they have some good video of the missiles North Korea had on display.  The Diplomat as well has a good analysis of the parade that is worth reading.

Trump Inherits a Secret Cyberwar Against North Korean Missiles https://t.co/LM2GBKDdAt

— KingSejong (@KingSejong) March 4, 2017

Holy-shit map of the day: China has area-denial capability over most of the South China Sea https://t.co/ZTBeexeKHs pic.twitter.com/jhxhcs3mky

— Max Fisher (@Max_Fisher) September 21, 2016