North Korea Will Likely Display New Missile During Military Parade

Both the Unification and the Defense Ministries believe that North Korea will not execute a high level provocation before the U.S. presidential election; instead they will display a new missile:

North Korea appears to be preparing a measured show of force at an upcoming military parade marking the 75th anniversary of its ruling Workers’ Party, South Korea’s top inter-Korean official said Thursday.    

During a parliamentary audit hearing at the National Assembly, Minister of Unification Lee In-young presented a somewhat different forecast from Seoul’s military officials — as well as his own ministry — of what lay in store during Pyongyang’s big event Saturday, for which the regime has been preparing for months.  

“In the past, ahead of a U.S. presidential election, and to show off its nuclear or missile capacities, [the North] would actually fire or test [missiles],” Lee said. “But this time, we are getting indications that [Pyongyang] will conduct something on the level of lower intensity acts or shows of force.”  

Lee did not elaborate on what he meant by “lower intensity,” but according to his own ministry’s report to the National Assembly, Pyongyang was likely to unveil a new “strategic weapon” it has warned about for months, which could range from a new form of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to a submarine-launched ballistic missile.     

A similar prediction was made a day earlier by Seoul’s Minister of National Defense Suh Wook, who expressed agreement with a lawmaker’s assertion that the North was more likely to display a new missile than conduct an active provocation in the form of a weapons test.   

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but I think this shows that the North Koreans believe if they behave it will improve their chances of a deal to reduce sanctions with the next President.