Tag: US-ROK Alliance

The THAAD has been in South Korea now for five years and still the environmental assessment has not been completed and protesters continue to block the road. This clearly has little to do with the environment and everything to do with politics. It will be interesting to see if the Korean left tries to mobilize around the THAAD issue and launch Braveheart style attacks against ROK police if and when they try and remove the protesters like they did at Camp Humphreys years ago:

South Korea will expeditiously push for the “normalization” of a U.S. THAAD missile defense unit here, Seoul’s defense minister said Monday, as it has been in the status of “temporary installation” due to an environmental assessment and other reasons.

Lee Jong-sup made the remarks as Seoul and Washington are striving to sharpen joint deterrence against Pyongyang amid growing concerns about possibilities of the regime’s additional provocations, like a long-range ballistic missile or nuclear test.

“The normalization of the THAAD unit should have been done (earlier),” Lee said in a meeting with reporters. “We will push for it (to materialize) at an early date.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It looks like Key Resolve and UFG exercises could be coming back:

President Yoon Suk-yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed Saturday to begin discussions on expanding joint military exercises between the two countries amid growing nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.

The two reached the agreement during their first summit in Seoul, which took place as both countries believed a nuclear test or intercontinental ballistic missile launch from the North was imminent and could even happen while Biden was touring the region.

“Both leaders agree to initiate discussions to expand the scope and scale of combined military exercises and training on and around the Korean Peninsula,” a joint statement on the summit said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but this news will assuredly be used as an excuse for North Korea to conduct a provocation on some kind.

Here is some increased messaging of unity within the US-ROK alliance:

 Top South Korean and U.S. military officers on Thursday boarded a U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier sailing in the East Sea, sources said, in a rare move to highlight the allies’ unity amid concerns about possible North Korean provocations.

Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Won In-choul and Gen. Paul LaCamera, the head of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, met aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier that arrived in the waters earlier this week in a show of America’s military might.

Their symbolic meeting came amid speculation that the North could engage in provocative acts, like another intercontinental ballistic missile launch or a nuclear test, in time for its key political events, including the 110th birthday of its late national founder Kim Il-sung on Friday.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

That is pretty bad when China is outpolled by North Korea is a survey like this. Additionally these survey results give a mandate to incoming President Yoon’s agenda to strengthen ties with the U.S.:

Nearly 87% of South Koreans think their country ought to develop closer ties to the United States than to any other nation, according to a poll released Monday.

The survey found 86.8% of respondents believe Seoul should develop closer economic, foreign and security policy ties with Washington. The Federation of Korean Industries commissioned the poll, which was conducted March 24-28.

Just 5% of respondents said North Korea ought to be the top partner with South Korea, and 3.2% said China. The European Union was cited by 2.1%, and 1.4% said Japan.

The poll surveyed 1,000 people and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. The federation, an association of large businesses, seeks to “promote sound economic policies,” according to its website.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but I think this survey says more about China than the U.S. because is demonstrates the level of distrust many South Koreans have with the CCP. It would be interesting if this same poll was conducted in multiple countries in the region to see if similar results are found.

The U.S. and ROK militaries will work to update OPLAN’s that reflect the changes in capabilities the North Koreans have demonstrated with their nuclear and missile programs:

 The top military officials of South Korea and the United States have signed a document directing the update of joint wartime contingency plans, Seoul officials said Thursday, following North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch last week.

Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Gen. Won In-choul and his U.S. counterpart, Gen. Mark Milley, inked the Strategic Planning Directive (SPD) during their talks in Hawaii on Wednesday (local time), according to South Korea’s JCS.

The SPD signing is bound to accelerate a previously agreed-upon process to rewrite the allies’ wartime operation plans (OPLANs).

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

It looks like US-ROK exercises will go back to Key Resolve and UFG level and diplomacy with Japan will be enhanced if I am reading the tea leaves correctly from President-elect Yoon’s recent statements:

South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol vowed Thursday to strengthen strategic alliance with the United States, build a strong national defense to deter North Korean provocations and pursue a future-oriented relationship with Japan, hours after winning the nation’s closely contested presidential election. (…..)

He promised to reconstruct South Korea-U.S. alliance and strengthen comprehensive strategic relationship with Washington by sharing the core values of human rights, market economy and human rights.

Earlier, Yoon talked with U.S. President Joe Biden on the phone prior to his visit to the Seoul National Cemetery and they affirmed strong bilateral alliance and close cooperation, according to PPP officials.” (…….)

In relations between South Korea and Japan, it is important to find out what will be beneficial to both countries and to the people of both countries in the future rather than in the past,” the president-elect said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but Yoon has promised to respond “sternly” to any illegal North Korean actions or provocations with the international community. It is almost certainty based on that statement that North Korea is going to launch some provocation to test Yoon once he is President.

The Moon administration is in desperation mode to get a Korean War peace treaty signed before they office this Spring:

It is the right time to declare an end to the Korean War, as an unprecedentedly favorable environment for the implementation of the declaration has been set up among relevant countries, according to Unification Minister Lee In-young.

In this regard, he also believes the first half of the year could be a “golden time” to make strides in frayed inter-Korean ties and stalled nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the United States, citing a heap of political events in the second half of the year that could disrupt efforts toward Pyongyang-related issues. 

Strongly believing such an agreement could serve as a catalyst for negotiations on the denuclearization of North Korea, President Moon Jae-in resurrected his proposal of declaring a formal end to the 1950-53 conflict in a speech at the United Nations last September. 

Since then, South Korean and U.S. diplomats have been meeting frequently with each other to discuss the proposal, while National Security Director Suh Hoon also drew support from China following a meeting with top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi in December.

Korea Times

Look at what some people want to give up to North Korea to entice them to meet to discuss a peace treaty that is a favorable action towards them anyway:

The lasting silence is fueling speculation that Seoul and Washington should offer something to entice North Korea into responding to the end-of-war issue, and the suspension of combined military drills and partial sanctions relief are being mentioned as possible incentives among others.

You can read more at the link, but the North Koreans want this peace treaty in order to question the legitimacy of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. If there is peace why are U.S. troops and by extension the UN Command needed?

If the Kim regimes wants a peace treaty they should agree to actions that actually makes it look like they want peace. For example removing all their artillery off of the DMZ would show the seriousness of their peace overtures. If they want peace why do they need artillery to target Seoul and other metropolitan areas?

Anyone who thinks the Afghan withdrawal is a sign of a weakening US commitment to South Korea doesn’t know much about US-ROK relations:

A bipartisan pair of U.S. lawmakers said Thursday the alliance with South Korea remains strong, despite fears that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan signals weakened resolve on the Korean Peninsula.

Reps. Ami Bera, D-Calif., and Young Kim, R-Calif., gave their assessment of the alliance with South Korea during a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Bera, a co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional Study Group on Korea, advised policy watchers not to read too deeply into President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.

“Korea is a totally different country — it’s one of the most developed democracies in the world,” he said. “It’s certainly a developed economy. We have a long geopolitical, strategic relationship and our security commitments are extremely important to members of Congress in a bilateral way.”

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link, but I don’t see the ROK president fleeing with a helicopter full of cash and the ROK Army completely folding against any North Korean attack. Unlike the Afghan military, the ROK military is professional, motivated, and will fight.

This is a stupid take in the Washington Post:

Rep. Song Young-gil, chairman of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), Wednesday, struck back at tweets by a Washington Post columnist saying that South Korea would be like Afghanistan if the U.S. forces leave the Korean Peninsula.

In addition, he added that Seoul needs to take advantage of the Afghanistan crisis to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean forces from Washington.

On Monday (local time), Marc Thiessen, a former speechwriter for former U.S. President George W. Bush, tweeted, “If South Korea were under this kind of sustained assault, they would collapse just as quickly without US support. There’s virtually no American ally who could defend themselves without us.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the ROK military will fight and not capitulate like the Afghan government that was corrupt and unpopular. South Korea is a developed democracy with a first world military with equipment far better than anything North Korea has. There is no way the ROK military would abandon their posts and rush to Osan Airbase to cling to fleeing C-17’s.