Tag: United States

Here is the latest from the Trump administration on North Korea’s denuclearization:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday during a campaign rally in Illinois that he doesn’t care how long North Korean denuclearization takes as long as there is no nuclear testing.

The remark was made as denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang remain deadlocked and a month after Trump said it “doesn’t matter” if it takes “two years, three years of five months” for the North to denuclearize.

Trump’s refusal to set a time frame seems to ignore North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s thinking on the issue. South Korean President Moon Jae-in said in September, shortly after his third summit with Kim, that Kim mentioned his regime was willing to give up its nuclear arsenal by the end of Trump’s term in January 2021.

“I don’t care,” Trump said during the Illinois rally. “I tell my people, I couldn’t care how long, as long as there’s no testing, as long as there’s no nuclear testing.”

Trump boasted of his “great relationship” with Kim and how both sides were happy with each other, rebuking critics who say his administration isn’t moving fast enough to get the denuclearization job done.

“North Korea’s going to be a great economic place,” Trump said, again painting a rosy future for the North if it gives up its nuclear weapons. “The location is so good between Russia and China and South Korea.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

It will be interesting to see how the US reacts to this:

The two Koreas and the United Nations Command (UNC) discussed disarmament of the Joint Security Area (JSA) Tuesday amid expectations for unarmed soldiers to “guard” the inter-Korean border area in a near future.

“The three-way consultation body had negotiation on measures on having a weapons-free JSA, including the withdrawal of firearms and guard posts,” according to the Ministry of National Defense.

Army Colonel Cho Yong-geun headed the South’s three-member delegation, with the North led by Colonel Om Chang-nam, according to the ministry. United States Army Colonel Burke Hamilton also represented the UNC for the hours-long discussions.

The trilateral meeting is aimed at finalizing details to realize complete disarmament at the JSA. The two Koreas reached a consensus over the plan by signing a joint military agreement during an inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang last month.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if this just gets slow rolled because who wants to put faith in the North Koreans complying with this agreement?

One way the US could respond is that they will disarm the JSA if the North Koreans agree to withdraw their artillery 50 kilometers north of the DMZ.

Trading away our national security & that of our allies for a short-term political advantage. Which it is, because Pyongyang isn't disarming. https://t.co/YYEj7uqPwL

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) October 7, 2018

It looks like a second Trump-Kim summit is coming:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hailed “progress” in discussions with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, Sunday (KST), saying the two had a “productive conversation” in taking steps toward denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

“I don’t have much to add. I would certainly tell you in private about our conversation. But we had a good productive conversation. As President Trump said there are many steps along the way and we took one of them today with another step forward. This is I think a good outcome for all of us,” Pompeo told President Moon Jae-in at Cheong Wa Dae late Sunday.

Pompeo said Kim had agreed to hold a second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump “as early as possible,” adding working-level discussions between the two countries to set a date and location would take place soon.

President Moon responded that the second summit between Trump and Kim would be “decisive progress” in Pyongyang’s denuclearization process.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but my guess is that the second Trump-Kim summit will announce an end to the Korean War.  The Kim regime wants the peace treaty so badly because it then challenges the legitimacy of the US military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?

ROK President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, but this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

If the US government decides to withdraw USFK in the future on their own accord then the Moon administration is able to get what it ultimately wanted without getting blamed for it.

Not that this took much foresight, but I called it that the 2nd Trump-Kim Summit if held would be to sign the end of the Korean War and that is apparently what it will be:

South Korea is proposing that the United States hold off on a demand for an inventory of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and accept the verified closure of a key North Korean nuclear facility as a next step in the negotiations, Seoul’s top diplomat said in an interview with The Washington Post.

The plan is designed to break the impasse between North Korea and the United States as President Trump comes under mounting pressure to demonstrate progress on the denuclearization talks. It will be one of the options available to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as he arrives in North Korea on Sunday to restart negotiations.

In exchange for the verified dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility, the United States would declare an end to the Korean War, a key demand of Pyongyang that U.S. officials have been reluctant to make absent a major concession by North Korea.

“What North Korea has indicated is they will permanently dismantle their nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, which is a very big part of their nuclear program,” South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said during a discussion at the South Korean mission to the United Nations. “If they do that in return for America’s corresponding measures, such as the end-of-war declaration, I think that’s a huge step forward for denuclearization.”  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but closing of Yongbyon is once again just more “pretend denuclearization”.  The North Koreans can drag the closure out and then at a time of their choosing the North Koreans could kick any inspectors they do allow in out and blame the US for some manufactured reason.  Additionally we don’t even know what secret facilities they may be hiding.  Before this all happens they will have already be rewarded with the peace treaty they have been seeking.  Nuclear experts seems to understand this:

“If the Yongbyon shutdown proves to be the first bite of the apple, it might be an OK starting point, but if it proves to be the only bite of the apple, it will be deeply unsatisfying – and totally reversible,” said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Duyeon Kim, a Korea expert with the Center for a New American Security, said the closure of Yongbyon would be a “welcome” and “tangible” step but noted that North Korea would still be able to expand its nuclear arsenal and fissile material production at covert facilities elsewhere in the country.

The Kim regime wants the peace treaty so badly because it then challenges the legitimacy of the US military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?  John Bolton seems to understand this:

Hawks inside the Trump administration, in particular national security adviser John Bolton, remain skeptical of signing such a declaration out of fear that it will give North Korea and China justification to demand the removal of the 28,500 U.S. forces stationed in South Korea, people close to Bolton said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.

Kang downplayed concerns about the declaration, emphasizing that it would be a purely “political” document and “not a legally binding treaty.”

President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

If the US government decides to withdraw USFK in the future on their own accord then the Moon administration is able to get what it ultimately wanted without getting blamed for it.  It appears that Trump might play along:

Trump, according to diplomats familiar with the negotiations, is open to signing the declaration and may not be bothered by ensuing demands about U.S. forces given his long-standing complaint that the United States pays far too much to station troops in East Asia.

It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out, but considering the mid-term elections are coming up it seems this would have to happen fast for maximum political benefit if the Trump administration really thinks this is a great deal.

Below are excerpts from some more great analysis by Professor B.R. Myers about the state of Inter-Korean affairs and the United States.  This first excerpt shows how President Moon really feels about the US-ROK alliance:

This is in line with the remarkable discretion Moon Jae-in has sustained since the start of his election campaign. Never does he speak more guardedly than when around foreigners critical of the North. Shortly after he took office I asked two Americans who had talked with him on separate occasions what impression they had got: “well-rehearsed,” said one, “well-drilled” the other. Had he given vent to the sort of anti-American, pro-North remarks Roh Moo Hyun went in for (though Roh was conservative in comparison), his policies would have encountered more resistance.

His base knows how he really feels. During the presidential election campaign in 2012 the novelist Kong Chi-yŏng, a prominent supporter, tweeted cheerfully that the Yankee-go-home candidate Lee Jung-Hee sounded “like Moon’s inner voice.” The conservatives pounced, and she had to do a quick Prufrock: It wasn’t what she’d meant at all. Since then the Moon camp has shown remarkable discipline. Professor Moon Chung-in is an exception of sorts, since it’s his job to send up trial balloons.  [B.R. Myers]

I have long believed that President Moon is just a better polished, smarter, and more disciplined version of former President Roh Moo-hyun.  Remember Moon was Roh’s Chief of Staff during his presidency, so learned well from all of Roh’s mistakes.  This discipline and political smarts he learned has allowed Moon to sell himself as a centrist when he is in fact a leftist.

This next excerpt shows how the Moon administration plans to implement their confederation plans with North Korea:

To assume that the two Korean administrations do not already see each other as confederates, and behave accordingly, albeit discreetly, is like assuming that a man and woman planning a marriage are not yet having sex. When we ask for Moon’s help in getting the other half of the peninsula to denuclearize, we are in effect asking this fervent nationalist to help remove the future guarantor of a unified Korea’s security and autonomy. Why should he comply? The only remaining point of the US-ROK alliance is to ease the transition to a confederation — which would obviate that alliance altogether.

The recent news of South Korean violations of sanctions (and of a presidential award just given to the main importer of North Korean coal) is merely illustrative. It’s trivial in comparison to the basic truth staring us in the face: No true liberal-democratic ally of the United States would think of leaguing up with an anti-American dictatorship, let alone one still in the thrall of a personality cult. I’m not sure whether the Trump administration is unaware of this or merely pretending to be.

At any rate a peculiar pattern has repeated itself every few weeks or so since Moon took office. It goes like this. First the Blue House is caught in some statement or act of disloyalty to the spirit of the alliance — like appointing an unrepentant former enforcer of North Korean copyrights to the second most powerful post in the government. (I don’t mean the prime minister.) South Korean conservatives then shout in chorus, “The Americans won’t stand for this!” Whereupon the White House rushes to say, in effect, “Oh yes we will!” It seems to revel in making pro-American, security-minded South Koreans look foolish.  (…….)

It’s therefore easy to imagine Trump or Pompeo expressing support for whatever “peace system” Moon and Kim happen to agree on, so long as progress toward denuclearization is made first. Any significant step in that direction — which we can expect the upcoming Pyongyang summit to announce with great fanfare — would then compel the US to sign off on  confederation, thus encouraging the South Korean public to do likewise. Before we know it, the ROK could be locked in an embrace it might eventually need American help to get out of.  [B.R. Myers]

As always I highly recommend reading the whole article from Professor Myers at the link, but at some point you would think the Trump administration would start pushing back on President Moon’s pro-North Korean agenda.  Possibly the suspension of Inter-Korean railway inspections by the United Nations Command is the start of a push back?

This seems like something that should not be lifted until North Korea fully agrees to denuclearize and act like a responsible member of the world community:

The U.S. on Thursday extended the ban on Americans’ travel to North Korea for another year, saying it was too dangerous to go there.

“The safety and security of U.S. citizens overseas is one of our highest priorities,” a State Department official said. “The travel warning for North Korea remains in place — the Department of State strongly warns U.S. citizens not to travel to North Korea.”

The travel ban extension, in force until August 31 next year, comes as Washington’s efforts to negotiate the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula with Pyongyang have stalled  [VOA]

You can read more at the link.

That's a fundamental disunity of interests that, if not healed, will certainly lead to decoupling. Better that we should use that leverage while we still have it. https://t.co/aafxfC97yS

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) August 28, 2018

I personally always thought the joint exercises would be restarted in time to execute Key Resolve 2019 because I never believed the Kim regime was were serious about real denuclearization:

The U.S. military will move ahead with all future military exercises on the Korean Peninsula, Defense Secretary James N. Mattis said Tuesday, suggesting that America’s brief suspension of the drills as a show of “good faith” toward North Korea has not paid dividends in the struggling denuclearization talks with Pyongyang.

“We have no plans at this time to suspend any more exercises,” Mr. Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon, less than three months after President Trump labeled the U.S.-South Korean drills “provocative” and ordered them temporarily halted following his unprecedented face-to-face meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Mr. Mattis made the announcement at a rare press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, during which the two also weighed in on a range of other topics, including efforts to stamp out the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the U.S. role in battling Iran-backed rebels in Yemen.  [Washington Times via a reader tip]

You can read more at the link, but supposedly the President received a hostile letter from the Butcher of the Cheonan, Kim Yong-chol that caused this announcement:

After the announcement it appears the ROK government may want to play delay games with restarting the joint exercises:

Resumption or suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States is subject to discussions between the allies, an official from Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said Wednesday.

“As of now, the issue has not been discussed between South Korea and the United States,” Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom told a daily press briefing.  (……)

“It is an issue that should be discussed and decided by South Korea and the U.S. while reviewing the progress in the denuclearization of North Korea,” the Cheong Wa Dae official said.  [Yonhap]

I expect that the Moon administration will come out of his upcoming summit with Kim Jong-il offering some minor concession to entice the Trump administration to believe the Kim regime is serious about denuclearization.  Regardless I would be surprised if Key Resolve 2019 does not happen.  I guess we will see what happens.

The message President Moon should bring with him is very simple, get rid of the nukes if you want sanctions dropped:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in will likely seek to mediate a breakthrough in talks between the United States and North Korea when he visits Pyongyang for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, a Seoul official said Sunday.

The presidential aide highlighted the importance of Moon’s role in advancing apparently stalled talks on the North’s denuclearization following the cancellation of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to the North scheduled for this week.

“I believe President Moon’s role has only become greater,” the official from the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said when asked about any possible change to Moon’s scheduled trip after U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday abruptly called off Pompeo’s visit.

Trump cited a lack of “sufficient progress with respect to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.