I think retired Army officer Steve Tharp makes a fair point to be concerned about an increase in anti-Americanism during the upcoming Winter Olympics. With that said I think the conditions are a bit different this time compared to the 2002 World Cup where this time I think the likelihood of a large increase in anti-Americanism is low:
Steve Tharp
What is unknown right now is how the Korean populace will react towards the United States and its athletes during the Olympics. In 1988, South Koreans were observed cheering wildly for the Soviet athletes during competitions against the Americans. In 2002, I watched on TV as the South Korean soccer team mimicked a speed skating maneuver in front of the American net after South Korea scored, which brought a very emotional reaction from their fans in the bar where I was watching the game. I found both events disconcerting.
A final factor will be the presence of the North Korean delegation. It has long been my contention that there is a zero-sum game in South Korea when it comes to sentiment for and against the U.S. and North Korea. When pro-North Korean sentiment increases, pro-U.S. sentiment goes down, and the converse is also true. A possible effect of the combined Korean delegation may be that some South Koreans view the U.S. and its athletes in a more negative manner.
I hope my concerns prove unfounded and that we don’t have another spike in anti-Americanism in the coming months. While there is never a good time for a wedge to be driven into the ROK-U.S. alliance, this seems an especially bad time given the current political and security situation. Let’s not repeat history but instead, as they say at the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, “Let’s Go Together!” [Korea Times]
You can read the whole article at the link, but during the World Cup timeframe many Koreans felt differently about North Korea due to the implementation of the Sunshine Policy. So when negative incidents involving Americans happened the ROK media, politicians, and public felt free to inflate their importance and bash the US. The 2002 Armored Vehicle Incident is a perfect example of this; the media published lies, politicians demagogued, and the public relentlessly bashed the US over a tragic traffic accident that USFK was deeply remorseful for.
During this same timeframe the North Koreans deliberately launched an attack that killed six ROK sailors and the media and politicians made excuses while the ROK public paid little notice. This is how strongly the Sunshine Policy altered the ROK public’s perceptions of the US and North Korea.
Since 2002, the Sunshine Policy has been revealed as a sham that gave the Kim regime billions of dollars to help develop their nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Additionally the North Koreans have made many deadly provocations to include sinking a ROK naval ship killing 46 sailors and even shelling a South Korean island with artillery. The change in perceptions of North Korea by the ROK public compared to 2002 is most evident by the relatively cool reception North Korean athletes are receiving that will attend the Winter Olympics.
With all these factors converging at the Winter Olympics I would not be surprised if US athletes receive cheers from the ROK public if they end up competing against a North Korean athlete.
North Korea has reaffirmed its commitment to ultimately reunite with South Korea, but not before rejecting any involvement by the U.S. and any other foreign powers on their shared East Asian peninsula.
The phrase “By Our Nation Itself” has frequently appeared in North Korea’s official media, attributing it to various bodies of government or its supporters. It was first conceived during a 2000 joint declaration in which the leaders of the two rival states “agreed to solve the question of the country’s reunification independently by the concerted efforts of the Korean nation responsible for it,” as quoted by state-run website Uriminzokkiri, which was named after the phrase. Most recently, it popped up in an article published Wednesday by the official Korean Central News Agency, which included it in the context of current negotiations between the two Koreas.
In remarks attributed to pro-North Korea site Jaju Sibo, described by The Diplomat as the successor to an online outlet shut down by South Korea’s strict anti-communist laws, an individual titled the honorary chairman of the Association for Supporting Prisoners of Conscience of the Family Movement for Realizing Democracy in South Korea “urged the authorities to adhere to the principle of By Our Nation Itself in mending the north-south relations.”
He also said “the authorities should abolish institutional and legal barriers such as repeal of the ‘Security Law,'” or National Security Act, which forbade South Koreans from expressing support for North Korea or communism in general. [Newsweek]
The Moon administration seems giddy after Kim Jong-un’s New Year message offering to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics:
This photo, taken on Jan. 2, 2017, shows Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon proposing high-level talks with North Korea next week. (Yonhap)
Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon proposed Tuesday holding high-level talks with North Korea, Jan. 9, to discuss its participation in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
Cho’s offer came in response to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s message, in which he said he was willing to send a delegation of athletes to the South’s first Winter Olympics.
Minister Cho suggested holding the cross-border dialogue at the truce village of Panmunjeom. He said Seoul is open to discuss the timing, venues, methods and other preparatory steps regarding the talks with Pyongyang.
“We propose to hold high-level talks on Jan. 9 at the Peace House (on the South Korean side of Panmunjeom),” Cho said during a press conference at the ministry in downtown Seoul. “We’re willing to talk with the North freely over the necessary steps both sides must take. To do so, the dialogue channel at Panmunjeom should be restored promptly. We expect to hear a positive response from the North soon.”
If North Korea accepts, this will be the first cross-border dialogue since President Moon Jae-in took office in May 2017. It will also be the highest-level contact between the two Koreas since December 2015 when vice minister-level officials met. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but for long time Korea watchers like myself this is just another example of the pattern with North Korea of raising tensions with provocations and then conducting a charm offensive to get concessions. Once they get the concessions they will then break whatever agreement they made and blame the US and the ROK and restart the provocation cycle.
What is different this time is President Trump seems determined to enforce stricter sanctions and President Moon seems determined to start another Sunshine Policy particularly trying to reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex. I can easily see a return to the failed Sunshine Policy causing tension politically between the US and the ROK which is likely one of the goals of the Kim regime if they do implement a charm offensive.
That is what this retired Naval Captain is advocating for in his article published on the US Naval Institute website:
Limited strikes should be targeted carefully and focused on North Korea’s specific provocation. A good start would be to take out the next North Korean intercontinental test missile on its launch pad. Before making such a preemptive strike, however, careful consultation with allies, particularly South Korea and Japan, would be essential. Controlling escalation would require the adept execution of sound tactical and strategic plans that had already been established.
In the wake of such strikes, Kim likely would feel compelled to act. If rational, he would respond in ways that would not promote a wider war. Especially because this is an unknown factor, it would be wise to prepare for cyber and maritime aggressions similar to his more serious provocations in 2010. Such planning would dovetail with the development of sound preplanned responses to increase the odds of U.S. military success at this “escalate to deescalate” strategy. The nature of North Korea’s reaction to military strikes—rational or irrational—would shape U.S. and its allies’ policies to protect their citizens. [US Naval Institute]
You can read more at the link, but I to am skeptical of the claim that Seoul will be destroyed if a limited strike is conducted against the Kim regime. Kim knows if he attacks Seoul then a regime change war would be justified to remove him from power. A limited military response in response to a preemptive strike would allow Kim to save face while not triggering a regime change war.
I tend to think that if for example his nuclear and ICBM facilities are targeted he would respond by targeting the bases where the bombers came from with ballistic missiles such as Andersen AFB on Guam or US military facilities in Japan. I also think ballistic missile and even terrorism attacks against US bases in South Korea or Japan are a possibility.
I also think the ROK will not support a preemptive strike and will publicly make that known in an effort to not have military retaliation occur against South Korea.
So what does everyone else think? Is it time to conduct a preemptive strike on North Korea? If so what do people think the response would be?
I tend to agree with this analysis from Carl Schuster from Hawaii Pacific University:
But if U.S. forces were to enter North Korea, how China responds will depend largely on why, said Carl Schuster, a retired Navy captain who now lectures at Hawaii Pacific University.
“Let’s say North Korea does something stupid like launches a missile that lands in South Korea or hits a U.S. base, or North Korea suddenly fires some artillery rounds across the DMZ and Seoul, if North Korea does that, China will have no problem with us pounding North Korea’s government into the dirt,” he said.
But there is a difference between aerial strikes and troops on the ground, and how the Chinese regime will respond to either is uncertain. At the very least, Beijing will seek international pressure to stop a U.S. offensive.
But while crossing the 38th parallel may be tolerated under some circumstances, taking the North Korean capital will not be, he said.
“If it looks like we are going to go north of Pyongyang, in their minds, that will be a red line.”
China may tolerate U.S. forces crossing the border to crush the North Korean army, he said, but he expects Beijing would send forces to occupy Pyongyang. North Korea’s capital will remain a no-go zone, he said.
“If North Korea initiates the conflict, China will watch it closely, prepare for North Korea’s defeat, but they won’t intervene if we don’t go to far.” [The Epoch Times]
You can read much more at the link, but I have always believed there is a strong possibility the Chinese would move in and occupy Pyongyang if they feared the US or ROK were going to occupy North Korea. This would not be a repeat though of the massive Chinese intervention into the Korean War where they played a significant combat role. Instead I believe the Chinese will rapidly, but openly move into Pyongyang under the guise of being peacekeepers.
If the US or the ROK were to attack the Chinese troops they would be initiating combat against peacekeepers. I think this will likely prevent any action against the Chinese troops and give Beijing a strong negotiating hand to settle the conflict in a way favorable to Chinese interests.
Even the North Koreans have decided to join in and bash the US for announcing that the US embassy would be moved to Jerusalem:
North Korea has lambasted US President Donald Trump for recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, renewing its description of him as a “dotard” in a statement released Saturday on state media.
Trump and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un have traded threats of war and personal insults in recent months as tensions remain high over the North’s missile and nuclear threats.
Now the hermit state has joined near-universal condemnation of the US president’s decision on Jerusalem, calling it a “reckless, wicked act”.
“Considering the fact that the mentally deranged dotard openly called for a total destruction of a sovereign state at the UN, this action is not so surprising”, a foreign ministry spokesman was quoted as saying by the state-run KCNA news agency.
“But this move clearly shows to the whole world who is the destroyer of world peace and security, pariah and rogue in the international community”, he said, using epithets usually reserved for the North. [AFP]
You can read more at the link, but last I checked President Trump was not the one causing violence in the Middle East instead Palestinian rioters were.
Here is the latest social justice cause that is targeting Korean-American business owners:
Earlier this month, Councilwoman Cindy Bassintroduced a bill to better regulate the hundreds of “stop and go” convenience stores that operate predominantly in Philadelphia’s low-income neighborhoods. Among its stipulations, the controversial measure would prohibit any physical barrier that separates cashiers from customers at these so-called “nuisance” establishments – including protective bulletproof glass.
According to Bass, these storefronts take advantage of the city’s lax restaurant liquor license provision while contributing to a variety of quality-of-life issues in low-income communities. Content to rely solely on the sale of cigarettes and alcohol, along with a bag of Doritos or two, many of these business owners don’t even sell the food that they advertise. [PhillyMag.com]
The councilwoman claims that these stores help promote crime because they sell alcohol and cigarettes. I find it interesting how she puts the onus on the business owners to stop crime instead of the police or the public. What else is interesting is that many of these business owners are Korean-American:
Rich Kim’s family has run the deli, which sells soda, snacks, meals and beer by the can for 20 years. He says the glass went up after a shooting and claims it saved his mother-in-law from a knife attack. Now, he may be forced to take some of the barrier down.
“If the glass comes down, the crime rate will rise and there will be lots of dead bodies,” he said.
A bill moving through city council reads: “No establishment shall erect or maintain a physical barrier.”
It’s called the ‘Stop and Go’ bill and is being offered by City Councilwoman Cindy Bass.
“Right now, the plexiglass has to come down,” she said.
She wants to put some controls on these small stores that she says sell booze, very little food and are the source of trouble in her district.
Rich Kim resents the charge stores like his attract loiters and argues calls to police are often met with a slow response.
Mike Choe runs a non-profit supporting Korean-owned businesses. He plans on raising $100,000 to fight the measure.
“I do think it’s a bad bill that will endanger Korean Americans,’ he said.
Bass says she’s battling for her constituents.
Kim argues as a Korean-American he’s being targeted.
“This bill targets Korean Americans,” Cole asked. Bass responded, “Absolutely not. I find that offensive.” [Fox 29]
The tensions between Korean-American business owners and African-American communities has been simmering since the 1992 LA Riots when Koreantown was a major target of the rioters. It has continued in recent years when riots in Baltimore and Missouri targeted Korean-American businesses. There was also the protests to shutdown a Korean-American gas station in Dallas:
Muhammad, 44, who was appointed to his post in 1994 by Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, says Pak must go. So should other Asian-American merchants in black neighborhoods, he says.
Could you imagine the uproar if legislation was passed that targeted African-Americans to make them more easy victims of crime and to put them out of business? That is clearly what some of the social justice warriors are trying to do with violence, legislation, and protests to push the Korean-American business owners out of black communities. Yet racism directed towards Korean-Americans draws little national media attention.
