North Korea has definitely been the bright shining object of US foreign policy for decades in the Pacific region. China would definitely not benefit if North Korea suddenly was not a major preoccupation for the United States:
Picture this: thanks to a combination of diplomatic ingenuity, unique personalities and a historic willingness to see tensions in Northeast Asia disappear, President Donald J. Trump convinces North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un to do the unthinkable and give up his nuclear weapons.
While we are a long way from even a meeting between the two taking place, let alone the ending of Kim’s nuclear weapons program, we can stargaze a little. If the Trump administration can somehow land the ultimate of deals, the geopolitical map would instantly be reset. America’s security, and that of its allies in Asia, would be enhanced dramatically, ridding our planet of one of its greatest security risks. Not only would President Trump deserve the Nobel Prize, but his place in history would be secure—forever.
And nothing would terrify China more. The reason, if you think about it, is obvious. The instability that Pyongyang brings to U.S. foreign policy presents to China a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to achieve many of its goals throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Remove the North Korea crisis from Asia and Washington has the economic, diplomatic, political and, most of all, military bandwidth to contain Beijing’s aspirations across Asia—and indeed, around the world. [Fox News]
You can read more at the link, but the author believes that if the North Korea crisis is resolved than that will allow the US to focus more on China’s activities in the region such as their island building campaign in the South China Sea.
Supposedly peace in our time is about to break out on the Korean peninsula with the announcement of a US-DPRK summit, but you would not know that if you only read the North Korean media:
Even after a historic announcement that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for the first time as a sitting president, Pyongyang continued Saturday to denounce the U.S. for its sanctions and vowed never to bow to the pressure.
In an opinion piece attributed to an individual writer, North Korea’s state newspaper Rodong Sinmun said Saturday that the regime won’t bow to “military power, sanctions or blockade.”
“We won’t let Americans determine good and evil according to their own ruler and trample upon justice and truth,” it argued.
It denounced the latest sanctions and secondary boycott by the U.S. and said they violated international law and infringed on sovereignty. It also called those disciplinary actions “very dangerous” and said they “might provoke a war.”
Neither the paper nor other North Korean media mentioned that South Korean envoys extended an invitation from Kim Jong-un to President Trump Thursday (local time) in Washington to meet to discuss the regime’s nuclear weapons programs and that Trump accepted it. [Yonhap]
This likely means that the state controlled media in North Korea will continue to take a hardline against the US until it is clear that the upcoming summit is going to lead to the concessions they want.
This could be a trial balloon by the ROK government to see what the US reaction would be to scaling down the upcoming joint exercises:
South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo (R) talks with U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Scott Swift in Seoul on March 8, 2018. (Yonhap)
South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo “jokingly” said Thursday the United States does not need to send a nuclear submarine and other strategic assets to Korea for the upcoming joint military drills.
He made the remark during a meeting with visiting Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Scott Swift amid speculation that Seoul hopes to scale down this year’s Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises in order to maintain the mood of inter-Korean reconciliation spurred by the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
“Lots of changes are expected in South-North relations and (security conditions) surrounding the Korean Peninsula going forward,” the minister told the admiral, who is retiring in a few months.
In particular, Song added, the two Koreas plan to hold their third summit talks in late April with South Korea and the U.S. scheduled to stage the annual exercises.
He asked Swift to keep doing his best for a firm defense posture through his retirement, reportedly slated for May.
“You need not deploy (defense assets) like nuclear submarines during the remainder of your tenure as commander,” the minister said with a slight smile in front of TV cameras.
Swift briefly replied that his troops will stay ready for deployment in case of an order from national leaders.
Ministry officials later played down Song’s remark as a joke. [Yonhap]
"Lost his mind" is correct. If the U.S. were to launch an unprovoked preventive war against Son'gun Korea, the U.S. would be relegated to the status of a pariah state. https://t.co/FuxzIgCG5y
It looks like the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises that are reportedly scheduled for next month will occur, but the ROK government wants them scaled down and low key as part of their “maximum prudence” strategy:
The allies delayed the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills, originally scheduled for February, to prevent possible tension with North Korea ahead of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. North Korea also held a low-key military parade on the eve of the Olympics in an apparent gesture of reconciliation.
Downsizing the drills is the most probable scenario for Seoul to maintain the ongoing mood for dialogue with Pyongyang.
North Korea has demanded the U.S. and South Korea suspend the drills for good, threatening to take “stern” countermeasures against the move.
The government, however, is likely to resume the drills as planned in April, as the U.S. has expressed a strong willingness to conduct the exercises right after the closing of the PyeongChang Paralympics in mid-March.
“There is little chance of the delay or suspension of the joint exercises,” Moon Chung-in, special adviser to President Moon Jae-in, said in a seminar in Washington, Tuesday.
Pyongyang is likely to lodge a vehement protest even against toned-down annual drills, so he said the thing is how to proactively deal with the reaction from the North.
He said President Moon will feel like he is walking on egg shells, taking an approach of “maximum prudence” on North Korea unlike maximum pressure from the U.S. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but I guess time will tell if maximum prudence will become maximum appeasement at some point.
The North Koreans are likely offering to hold talks now to get what they can get out of negotiations and then set conditions for their next provocation cycle:
A senior North Korean official said Monday that the reclusive state is willing to hold talks with the United States, noting the door for dialogue between the two countries remains open, according to an official from Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae.
The remarks from Kim Yong-chol, the North’s point man on South Korea, came in a meeting with Chung Eui-yong, chief of South Korea’s National Security Council and the top security advisor to President Moon Jae-in.
“Kim said the door remains open for dialogue with the United States. He said the North has also repeatedly expressed such a stance,” a ranking Cheong Wa Dae official told reporters, while speaking on condition of anonymity.
Kim’s remarks came one day after he told the South Korean president in a meeting that the North has enough willingness to hold bilateral talks with the United States.
He, however, attached no conditions for the talks, according to the presidential official.
The U.S. seemed to remain cautious, with White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders saying Washington will first see if Kim’s remarks represented the North’s first step toward denuclearization. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime has no intention of denuclearizing which means the talks will likely go no where. However, before the talks go no where the Kim regime will try to get concessions out of the ROK. The Moon administration is already floating the idea of suspending joint military exercises and economic aid for them suspending their nuclear and missile programs:
Moon has promoted a two-step roadmap to end the security crisis prompted by the North’s nuclear threats. According to his proposed first step, the North must place a moratorium on its nuclear and missile tests, freeze any further development of the technologies and join denuclearization negotiations. In return, the international community was to offer corresponding compensations. The second step would be actual nuclear dismantlement.
Moon, however, never made clear what Seoul and Washington would offer to Pyongyang in return for the first step, a freeze. Suspending or downsizing joint military exercises by South Korea and the United States has been discussed as a possible option, as well as an economic assistance package for the impoverished economy of the North. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
So basically the Kim regime gets significant concessions for doing nothing. The economic assistance will likely include the reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the restarting of Mt. Kumgang tours, and the opening of the Masik Ski Resort to tourism. This would essentially shred all the sanctions that the US has been trying to leverage against the ROK. That is why we will likely see a renewed push for a “freeze deal” in the coming weeks and months.
After the Kim regime gets all they can out of talks they will then restart their nuclear and missile programs and blame “US hostility” or some other made up reason. Their leftist supporters will of course all fall in line with the narrative. We have seen this all play out before. Any freeze deal they sign the Kim regime will find a way to cheat on it. I fully expect they will continue with short and intermediate range ballistic missile testing claiming this is okay because they are not ICBMs. I suspect they will use space launches to test their ICBM technology and claim it is for peaceful purposes. They have done this before.
They will also likely continue efforts to miniaturize their nuclear technology to put on ICBM warheads. Without inspections this will be easy for them to conceal. Even if they get called out for cheating they will just deny it and their apologists will come out in force to support them. Supporters of past nuclear deals kept claiming that North Korea was in compliance despite clear evidence they were not.
It will be interesting to see which direction the Trump administration wants to go. If they want to kick this can down the road to deal with later, the freeze deal is a way to do it.
Something I have been advocating for, for many years the interdiction and inspection of North Korean ships may finally become a reality:
The United States is imposing a fresh set of sanctions on North Korea – the “largest ever”, President Trump says.
The measures target more than 50 ships and maritime transport companies in North Korea, but also China and Taiwan.
North Korea is already under a range of international and US sanctions over its nuclear programme and missile tests.
But it continued tests last year, including tests of a nuclear weapon and a long-range ballistic missile capable of reaching the US.
The US says the new sanctions are designed to put a further squeeze on North Korea, cutting off sources of revenue and fuel for its nuclear programme and clamping down on evasion of already existing restrictions. [BBC]
Here is how the US may enforce the inspections:
The Trump administration and key Asian allies are preparing to expand interceptions of ships suspected of violating sanctions on North Korea, a plan that could include deploying U.S. Coast Guard forces to stop and search vessels in Asia-Pacific waters, senior U.S. officials said. [Reuters]
It will be interesting to see how vigorously these sanctions are enforced by other nations because the US Coast Guard can’t be everywhere at all times to enforce these sanctions. I fully expect the Chinese government will do what it can to help the Kim regime circumvent the sanctions. If the sanctions don’t work President Trump says he is ready to implement Phase 2:
Speaking at a new conference on Friday, President Trump warned of serious consequences if the latest round of sanctions did not generate results.
“If the sanctions don’t work we’ll have to go phase two – and phase two may be a very rough thing, may be very, very unfortunate for the world,” he said.
“It really is a rogue nation. If we can make a deal it’ll be a great thing and if we can’t, something will have to happen.”
He did not specify what “phase two” would entail. [BBC]
Here is what ROK Drop favorite One Free Korea has to say about this news:
If China claims the unilateral right to make artificial islands, we can claim the unilateral right to make some artificial reefs. https://t.co/o1E6F7DQ31
Former Financial Times journalist John Burton thinks the Trump administration is to paternalistic with South Korea and should let them settle their own differences with North Korea:
John Burton
The U.S. has been doing itself no favors in its rather paternalistic response to the thawing relations between the two Koreas at the Winter Olympics.
The bottom line message emerging from Washington is that South Koreans cannot be trusted in handling Pyongyang. The U.S. is worried that North Korea is trying to drive a wedge in relations between Seoul and Washington. But the Trump administration’s own behavior is contributing to the possibility of any split.
And if the South Koreans can’t be trusted with their own security, then why should the U.S. be so concerned about defending them unless it is for some ulterior motive such as maintaining a military presence on the Asian mainland to counter China?
The fact is that the Koreans have reached out to each other because of fears that Trump might launch a “bloody nose” preventive attack that could result in appalling destruction across the Korean Peninsula. No wonder why Koreans want to give peace a chance.
But the U.S. has not reacted well to what is happening in PyeongChang. The American media has reported about South Koreans having been seduced by the wily charms of Kim Yo-jong, described as North Korea’s Ivanka Trump, and her accompanying “army of beauties.”
Many predict that her siren song is likely to result in President Moon Jae-in accepting her invitation to travel to Pyongyang and meet her brother, Kim Jong-un, who will trick the South Koreans into undermining the international sanctions regime against North Korea over its nuclear program. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but Mr. Burton is also upset with Vice President Pence not standing and showing respect to the North Korean delegation at the Winter Olympics. I have to wonder if Mr. Burton thinks the then Apartheid South Africa should have been allowed in the Olympics and shown proper respect as well?
Mr. Burton then goes on to say the South and North should be allowed to resolve their issues themselves without US interference. That boat has long ago sailed when North Korea decided to begin launching ICBMs and testing nuclear weapons capable of mass destruction in the United States. If North Korea was not conducting such activities threats of “bloody nose” strikes and “maximum pressure” campaigns by the Trump administration would not be happening.
Until North Korea gives up on these programs the United States will continue to have a vested interest in any negotiations between North and South Korea. Especially after the original Sunshine Policy that sent billions of dollars to North Korea is arguably the reason why the Kim regime now has nuclear and ICBM weapons to threaten the US with. Because of this the Trump administration rightfully should be advocating against any give aways by the Moon administration to the Kim regime for little or nothing in return.
