Tag: THAAD

The Vice Chairman of the Seoul Financial Forum has come out against the deployment of THAAD to Korea:

James Rooney, vice chairman of the Seoul Financial Forum, said that South Korea will suffer unwanted consequences for its deployment of a U.S. missile defense system, describing the move as a “self-inflicted” mistake.

He said that South Korea needs to keep the U.S. engaged but not at the expense of antagonizing China through inappropriate access to the latter for either Washington or Japan through a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.

“Bringing THAAD onto the Korean Peninsula is the most thoughtless thing that South Korea has done in a long time,” Rooney told The Korea Times.

He said that THAAD is next to the worst solution to solve the North Korea nuclear issue. He believes that it will further sour relations among neighbors and escalate geopolitical tension in the region

“THAAD is an unnecessary and distracting sideshow from much bigger and urgent issues that need to be addressed today, both within Korea and in the neighborhood,” he said.

“But it will not go away by ignoring it, and China’s issues with it will not change just because we want to argue the case differently,” he added. “We need to respect their opinion and take actions accordingly.”

Using the example of a spy cam, Rooney, a professor of international finance at Sogang University, explained why China is so sensitive to the missile defense system.

“Imagine your next door neighbor installed a spy cam system that enabled him to look over into your garden and could even tell what was going on inside your house,” he said.

His argument was that he installed it to watch out for thieves and villains coming from the other direction and has nothing to do with the neighbor.

“You cannot imagine why your neighbor would want to give this party access to information about themselves like this, but you certainly do not want any third parties to have greater abilities to monitor you and potentially threaten you with defensive weapons,” he said.

It is claimed that THAAD is purely defensive, but he said that there is no good reason to believe that the claims made for its defensive capabilities will play out to prevent loss of human life in the future.

“Many may not realize that it actually adds to the potential for death and destruction in the neighborhood because once it is installed there will be a temptation for the targeted adversary to test it to see what happens,” he added. “That temptation is not present if THAAD is not present.”  [Korea Times]

You can read the rest at the link.

Mr. Rooney’s spy camera claims are only valid if you assume that the US currently has no sensors to track Chinese ballistic missile launches.  Does anyone really think the US has no sensors right now to track Chinese missile launches?  Does Mr. Rooney know that two identical AN/TPY-2 radars, identical to the one THAAD uses is located just across the water from Korea in Japan.  Why didn’t China complain about the installation of those radars.  Plus if THAAD in Korea is going to be used to spy on Chinese ballistic missile launches, it is pointed in the wrong direction of where China’s ballistic missile test range is located at.

The THAAD radar is not a 360 radar, like other missile defense systems such as Patriot, it is a directional radar pointed towards the enemy ballistic missile threat.  To look towards western China the radar would have to be completely turned away from North Korea making it useless to defend against ballistic missiles fired from North Korea.  Plus if the radar is turned towards western China satellite surveillance from China would easily detect this and would validate their current claims.  The US military is not stupid and knows they can’t point the radar towards China with no one noticing.

Then Mr. Rooney’s claim that North Korea would actually launch something at THAAD “to see what happens” is very unlikely.  Launching a ballistic missile into South Korea could be interpreted as an act of war and met with a heavy response.  Plus all across South Korea the US and the ROK military already have Patriot missile batteries deployed at key locations.  The North Koreans have never launched a ballistic missile into South Korea “to see what happens” with those systems.  THAAD like Patriot is missile defense system, just with greater range to shoot down more capable threats the North Koreans have developed that the Patriot system has less capability to shoot down.

The reason why China is opposed to THAAD is the simplest answer which is they are attempting to create a wedge in the US-ROK alliance.  I think it will ultimately fail considering how even the left wing ROK politicians favored to win the ROK presidency have now come out to support the THAAD deployment.

It seems like the Kim regime is trying to put pressure on the next ROK government to cancel the THAAD deployment:

North Korea claimed on Tuesday that South Korea has become “a primary target of strike” by neighboring countries with its decision to deploy a U.S. missile defense system.

In a commentary, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said South Korea will only turn itself into a victim as it presses ahead with the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD.

China has balked at the deployment, fearing that the system’s powerful radar could hurt its strategic security interests. Beijing has undertaken apparently retaliatory measures against South Korean companies and goods, as its relations with Seoul have deteriorated.

The North said South Korea has only itself to blame.

“The South Korean puppet regime is pressing ahead with the deployment of THAAD despite the strong protest of the public at home and abroad,” the KCNA’s English commentary read. “South Korea, which turned into the frontline base and nuclear outpost for the U.S. in carrying out its strategy for dominating Asia-Pacific, has become a primary target of strike by the neighboring countries due to the THAAD deployment, whereby the South Korean people cannot but fall victim to it.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Residents of Seongju County confront policemen on May 29, 2017, as they block the entry of trucks to the site picked for the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile defense system. Five trucks tried to enter the golf course in the county, 296 kilometers south of Seoul, that will host the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) for environmental inspection but then turned back. The deployment is fiercely opposed by local residents and some civic groups and religious organizations, including Won Buddhism which provided this photo. (Yonhap)

Here is the latest theory on the so called real reason the Chinese are upset with the THAAD deployment to South Korea:

The second hypothesis is, I think, more convincing, and one where Beijing may have legitimate concern about the Gyeongsangbuk-do AN/TPY-2 radar upsetting U.S.-China strategic nuclear stability. Specifically, China may — correctly or incorrectly — fear that its nuclear second-strike capability is significantly degraded as a result of a third U.S. AN/TPY-2 radar going up specifically near the southern tip of the Korean peninsula.

To avoid the need for a massive nuclear build-up and to feel comfortable with its several hundred or so nuclear warheads for targeting, China needs to feel comfortable enough its intercontinental ballistic missiles can reliably penetrate U.S. antiballistic missile countermeasures.  [The Diplomat]

It does not matter what radar is in Korea because the Ground-based Missile Defense (GMD) system fielded by the United States is not designed to shoot down complex ICBMs like the Chinese and Russians both have.  It is designed to intercept non-complex ICBMs from rogue nations like North Korea and Iran.

Here is the part of the article where somebody let out the “good idea fairy”:

Li’s proposed solution for the United States was simple enough: the United States could “deploy its Green Pine radar or another radar with similar capabilities to guide the THAAD interceptors.” Li add that the “THAAD TPY-2 radar does not provide more capability to protect the ROK from the North Korean missile threat relative to a Green Pine-level radar since the TPY-2 radar’s detection range goes too far beyond North Korean territory.” It’s unclear also if a Green Pine radar would synergize with the existing AN/TPY-2s in Japan.

First of all Green Pine is not a US radar, it is an Israeli radar that was sold to the ROK.  The ROK has two of these radars deployed on the peninsula.  THAAD is not designed or tested to use anything but the AN/TPY-2 radar.  If you want to know why the THAAD system uses the AN/TPY-2 radar doing a search on Youtube is a good place to begin.  The Green Pine radar is designed to work with the Israeli Arrow system.  These are two completely different systems with their own complex hardware and software that cannot be mix and matched.

The reason why China is opposed to THAAD is the simplest answer which is they are attempting to create a wedge in the US-ROK alliance.  The Chinese feel that that the US is trying to recreate the old USSR containment strategy against them and thus are taking actions to counter this.  They have made inroads within the Philippines at countering US influence there are are now focusing on the ROK.  With a left wing politician expected to be elected in a couple of months in the ROK we will see if this strategy works for the Chinese.

The viewpoint in this article is something that I have been saying for months that the Chinese are using the THAAD deployment to drive a wedge in the US-ROK alliance.  They have had success in the Philippines with this strategy and have been trying to replicate it in South Korea.  We will see if the strategy works when a ROK left wing politician likely gets elected May to the Presidency:

Chinese opposition to South Korea’s deployment of the THAAD missile defense system is less about missiles than about an ongoing effort to weaken—and ideally demolish—the United States’ network of formal and informal alliances in Asia that has underpinned the regional order for the last seventy years.

The THAAD controversy that heated up in 2016 once deployment became likely displays a familiar Chinese modus operandi: First, pick a fight over an allegedly offensive act. Next, follow up with vitriol and veiled threats, and then inflict economic pressure—while making bland denials or declaring it the spontaneous reaction of the righteously offended Chinese people.  [The National Interest]

You can read more at the link.

Thehe retaliation by China against the ROK is extremely petty and not something an aspiring super-power should be doing:

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Friday that China’s economic retaliation against South Korea for its decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) U.S. antimissile system was “inappropriate and troubling,” and that Washington asks Beijing to “refrain from such action.”Although the U.S. “acknowledges” China’s opposition, Tillerson urged China to “address the threat that makes Thaad necessary.”

The statement was Tillerson’s first time personally addressing the issue in public. It was made during a 20-minute joint press conference with South Korean Foreign Affairs Minister Yun Byung-se in central Seoul, ahead of his closed-door meeting with Yun.

Tillerson touched down at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, 70 miles south of the capital, Friday morning for his second of three-leg trip in Asia. He had flown in from Tokyo, where he had talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, among others.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

This THAAD nonsense from China is getting stupider and stupider:

Chinese police are looking for a woman who has posted more than 100 videos of herself vandalizing products in a Lotte Mart in retaliation against the U.S. deployment of missile defense system in South Korea.

In the video, the woman, who appear to be in her 20s, crushing the instant noodle cups, stealing snacks, giving her middle finger in an obscene gesture at the main gate and drinking beverages before putting the containers back on the shelf.

These videos began to appear one after another on Chinese portal Sohu from early this month, and have gone viral.  [Korea Times]

This photo, released by U.S. Forces Korea on March 7, 2017, shows parts of an advanced U.S. missile defense system being unloaded from a cargo plane at Osan Air Base, south of Seoul, the previous day. The deployment of the system, known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, began in South Korea, the U.S. Pacific Command said March 7. (Yonhap)

Thaad deployment begins months early https://t.co/Hcg06qmdni pic.twitter.com/cLnHn25Y0r

— KoreaJoongAngDaily (@JoongAngDaily) March 8, 2017

Rep. Won Yoo-chul of South Korea’s ruling Liberty Korea Party stages a protest in front of the Seoul-based Chinese Embassy on March 4, 2017, against China’s economic retaliation over the country’s plan to install an advanced missile defense system. (Yonhap)