Tag: THAAD

A group of scientists is claiming THAAD cannot effectively defend South Korea from ballistic missile attack:

Another scientist, David Wright, co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Global Security Program, said that a salvo of North Korean short-range missiles could overwhelm THAAD.

The 10 million people living in Seoul will also not be protected by THAAD, since it is being installed 125 miles south of the city. “It cannot engage missiles fired at Seoul, so it offers no additional protection of the city,” David Wright told the Associated Press.

“We have a layered defense systems, which is shared with the Republic of South Korea and Japan,” Commander Gary Ross, a Pentagon spokesperson, told Business Insider in response to whether or not Seoul was protected. “But we don’t discuss specific weapons systems.”

As it stands, US Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile defenses provide protection for Seoul, though it has similar limitations to THAAD.

One scientist was even more wary of THAAD’s capabilities. Harris’ statement about THAAD is “technically incorrect,”Theodore Postol, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said.”The THAAD interceptor is very easily defeated by either causing a missile to tumble end over end or by intentionally fragmenting a rocket into pieces.”

In the case of a saturation attack, or a large volume of missiles as Postol described, THAAD’s defense capabilities “can be expected to be very low, probably zero or close to that,” Postol said.  [Business Insider]

You can read more at the link, but of course if North Korea masses enough ballistic missiles at one location and there is not enough Patriot and THAAD interceptors to shoot them down then ballistic missiles will get through.  When it comes to Seoul, North Korea can already destroy Seoul with artillery why waste ballistic missiles by shooting at it?

It seems they would want to use their ballistic missiles to target areas further to the south that their artillery systems cannot reach.  Additionally as mentioned in the article THAAD is not the only missile defense system in South Korea with Patriot batteries deployed across the peninsula.  THAAD has never been sold as being a magic force field to protect all of South Korea, it is part of a layered missile defense system to protect the country.

As I figured the statement made by President Trump in regards to South Korea paying for THAAD is related to upcoming US-ROK cost sharing negotiations:

National Security Adviser Gen. H.R. McMaster said Sunday that the U.S. will indeed pay for the roughly $1 billion THAAD missile defense system in South Korea, amid neighboring North Korea’s repeated ballistic test launches.

“What I told our South Korean counterpart is until any renegotiation, that the deals in place, we’ll adhere to our word,” McMaster told “Fox News Sunday.”

He spoke days after President Trump said South Korea should pay for the anti-missile system and hours after Seoul said that McMaster had assured its chief national security officer, Kim Kwan-jin, about the deal.

“The last thing I would ever do is contradict the president of the United States,” McMaster also told Fox News. “And that’s not what it was. What the president has asked us to do, is to look across all of our alliances and to have appropriate burden sharing-responsibility sharing. We’re looking at that with our great ally South Korea, we’re looking at that with NATO.”  [Fox News]

You can read more at the link.

The comment by President Trump that he wants South Korea to pay for the THAAD deployment is not going over very well in South Korea as one would expect.  Here is how many citizens feel about paying for a system intended to protect them:

“We’re already upset about THAAD being deployed in our town, and now they want us to pay for it, too? South Korea can’t pay, so just send it back to the US,” said Lim Soon-boon, 61, on Apr. 28. “At first, the US said it would be paying for the deployment, so it’s ridiculous for them to start asking us to pay for it now.” Lim is head of the women’s association in Soseong Village, Chojeon Township, Seongju County, North Gyeongsang Province, where the THAAD missile defense system is being deployed. “I’m grateful to Trump for bringing us to the realization that the US’s ultimate goal was to sell THAAD to South Korea,” said Bae Mi-yeong, 39, a Seongju resident.

On the day that US President Donald Trump asked South Korea to pay US$1 billion to deploy THAAD and South Korea’s Defense Ministry rejected the request, a group chatroom on KakaoTalk that is used by more than 800 residents of Seongju was filled with comments about “bastards selling out the country” and “morons in the Defense Ministry.”

“It seems as if not a single thing has gone right with the THAAD deployment. It doesn’t make sense for the Defense Ministry to deny that when the US president is openly asking for US$1 billion,” said Kim Chung-hwan, 57, co-chair of the Seongju Committee Fighting for the Cancellation of the THAAD Deployment. “Is South Korea a colony that has to cough up cash whenever the US wants it to?” asked Park Hee-ju, 48, who is a member of the Gimcheon city council as well as co-chair of the Gimcheon Civic Action Committee Against the THAAD Deployment.  [Hankyoreh]

Here is what the Presidential candidates had to say about paying for THAAD with most of them as expected taking the populist we are not paying for THAAD stance:

Presidential candidates on Friday argued over Washington’s pressure on Seoul to pay for a US missile defense system to be stationed on the peninsula.

The top five candidates sat in a televised debated hosted by the National Election Broadcasting Debate Commission, the last debate to be held prior to the election on May 9.

The session started off with liberal candidates raising objections to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and its deployment process.

“We have to tell (the US) to take THAAD back as we will not pay for it, for the sake of our nation’s dignity,” said Sim Sang-jeung of the progressive minority Justice Party.  (…….)  Front-runner Moon Jae-in of the main liberal Democratic Party of Korea, partly agreed with Sim’s argument.

“We have lost bargaining power over the issue because several parties and candidates unconditionally consented (to THAAD),” Moon said.

But he took a more moderate stance, claiming that the detailed discussions should be handed over to the incoming government.

“More diplomatic discussion and public consultation is required,” he said.

“Also, the billion-dollar amount is a huge financial burden upon the South Korean government, so a parliamentary ratification is necessary (to decide on the payment).”  Korea Herald]

There was at least one candidate that actually analyzed Trump’s remarks instead of taking a populist stance:

“I believe that President Trump has other purposes in mentioning (the THAAD expenses),” said Yoo.

“It has already been agreed that (Seoul) would not pay (for the deployment), so when I become president, I will talk (with the US) so that we won’t have to pay.”  [Korea Herald]

Mr. Yoo is likely right that President Trump has other purposes with the THAAD comment which I think may have been intended to set conditions for USFK cost sharing negotiations.  Korea will likely not end up paying for the THAAD deployment, but I would be surprised if they don’t end up paying more for USFK cost sharing once the current agreement ends next year.

Residents of Soseong Village, North Gyeongsang Province hold a press conference calling for the US to make a formal apology for a soldier who was seen smiling as he used his mobile phone to film residents protesting the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system, Apr. 28.  [Hankyoreh]

I think who ever the next ROK president is will find it politically very difficult to pay for the THAAD deployment like President Trump is now requesting.  I think this may just be something President Trump is doing as a bargaining chip for future US-ROK Free Trade Agreement renegotiations which is something else he has been wanting.  I guess we will see what happens:

U.S. President Donald Trump has abruptly demanded that Seoul pay $1 billion for the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here, stoking negative public sentiment against the anti-missile system.

In response to the unexpected, deal-breaking remark, the Ministry of National Defense said Friday that Washington should pay any costs in accordance with the two countries’ Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that governs the treatment of U.S. forces stationed here.

Trump’s comments were squarely against the allies’ previous agreement, reached based on SOFA, which calls for South Korea to provide the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) with the site for the anti-missile shield and other infrastructure, and for the U.S. to bear the cost of deployment and operation.

The government provided the USFK with land in Seongju County, North Gyeongsang Province, previously owned by Lotte Group, April 20.

Trump’s surprise remarks are adding fuel to the ongoing controversy over the deployment of the THAAD battery, giving objectors another reason to oppose it, along with fierce protests from local residents over the system’s possible environmental risks.

During an interview with Reuters, Thursday, President Trump said the THAAD system was to protect South Korean people, questioning why the U.S. should pay for that.

“On the THAAD system, it’s about a billion dollars. I said, ‘Why are we paying? Why are we paying a billion dollars? We’re protecting,'” he said. “So, I informed South Korea it would be appropriate if they paid.”

Stressing that the battery is “phenomenal” and “the most incredible” equipment to shoot down enemy missiles, he continued: “We’re going to protect them. But they should pay for that, and they understand that.”  [Korea Times]

Here is the ROK political reaction to President Trump’s demand:

Presidential front-runner Moon has been opposing the deployment of the U.S.-led antimissile defense system in Korea.

“The deployment and management of the Thaad system must be paid for by the U.S. government, as agreed upon initially between the two governments,” said People’s Party Rep. Son Kum-ju, chief spokesman of the presidential campaign of Ahn Cheol-soo. “But if there were disagreements on the bilateral agreement to deploy the defense system, the agreement must be tabled for approval at the National Assembly.”

The Park Geun-hye administration last July said the deployment requires no approval by the National Assembly, but liberal opposition parties that are against the placement said the matter should be deliberated and ratified by the lawmakers.

“The People’s Party also opposes renegotiating the Korea-U.S. FTA. It is only right that two countries stick to agreements they have reached together,” Son added.

Some lawmakers went so far as to request the cancellation of the agreement over Thaad.

“We would rather the U.S. government take back the Thaad battery if it’s going to make the South Korean government pay for it,” said Rep. Sim Sang-jeung of the Justice Party, also a candidate for the presidential election, in a campaign speech on Friday at Hongik University Station in western Seoul. “The South Korean people have not asked for Thaad.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

It will be interesting to see how this turns out.

Thaad shld be operational in "next few days" says Susan Thornton. Bravo! @JChengWSJ @annafifield @CSISKoreaChair @followFDD pic.twitter.com/hNahXZ38ZM

— Victor Cha (@VictorDCha) April 27, 2017

A Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery launcher is being installed on a former golf course in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province on Wednesday. /Yonhap

By all appearances it seems the US and ROK governments pushed ahead with the installation of the THAAD missile defense system before the upcoming ROK presidential election though USFK is not commenting on this:

The United States military started installing a controversial anti-missile defense system in South Korea overnight Tuesday, triggering protests and sparking criticism that it was rushing to get the battery in place before the likely election of a president who opposes it.

The sudden and unannounced move came only six days after U.S. Forces Korea secured the land to deploy the system, known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD.

Moon Jae-in, a liberal candidate who has a strong lead in the polls ahead of the May 9 presidential election, has promised to review South Korea’s decision to host the anti-missile battery.

“There’s a sense in Seoul that THAAD deployment has been rushed based on the timetable of South Korea’s presidential election, rather than North Korea’s threats,” said John Delury, a professor of international relations at Yonsei University in Seoul.

“To some extent, the acceleration of THAAD deployment has ‘worked,’ limiting the next South Korean leader’s room for maneuver,” Delury said. “But there’s the danger of a backlash among the South Korean public feeling like a pawn in the game of ‘America First.’ ”

U.S. Forces Korea did not make any statement about the deployment and did not immediately respond to a request for comment about why the installation was started in the dead of night.  [Chicago Tribune]

You can read more at the link, but the real surprise is that people are surprised by this.  USFK and the ROK government have been publicly signaling for months that the deployment will be accelerated.

Moon Jae-in is saying that the deployment decision should have been left up to the next government after reaching a national consensus.

“Moon Jae-in has been consistent in his position on the THAAD deployment: that must be decided by the next administration after enough public discussion and by national consensus,” Park Kwang-on said in a statement.

“Any deployment that completely ignores appropriate processes must be suspended now and the final decision should be made after consultation between South Korea and the U.S.” he said.

Anyway the US military did Mr. Moon a great favor because now when he likely becomes President he does not have to worry about this decision and can just blame the last government for allowing it to happen to appease his leftist base while getting the increased defense benefit against North Korea provided by THAAD.

Here is what was happening at the site as the equipment was rolling in:

In Seongju county, at the location of the THAAD site, around 4,000 police were present to ensure the equipment’s delivery. Around 400 protesters were present at a demonstration near the site, and police in riot gear held back protesters as the equipment rolled past on military trucks. Hwang Soo-young, an activist with the government watchdog group, the People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy (PSPD), was at the site of the protest Wednesday morning. She claimed that the protests turned violent as “police were pushing residents away.”

She claimed six people were injured during the encounter, although CNN has not been able to independently verify the claim.  She said that vehicles with equipment “including radar, launchers and generators” started passing the village of Soseongri at around 4.45 a.m. (3.45 p.m. Tuesday ET).  [CNN]

According to the article the conclusion of the land transfer to USFK allows the US military to expedite preparations to deploy the THAAD missile defense system to the site:

South Korea and the United States completed the regulatory process needed for Seoul’s provision of a base site for a U.S. missile defense battery, the foreign ministry said Thursday.

A bilateral committee on the status of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) approved the plan for land transfer, allowing the U.S. military to begin work for the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in the some 300,000-square-meter land in the southeastern county of Seongju.

The land was formerly owned by a Lotte Group affiliate and used as a golf course.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

In survey, majority of Korean content companies report losses from #China's THAAD backlash: https://t.co/CzmWnRLBCN #kpop #hallyu #한류 pic.twitter.com/qtkXDlXOAN

— KEI (@KoreaEconInst) April 13, 2017