Tag: Taiwan

General Minihan does offer a plausible scenario on why 2025 would be a good time for China to attack Taiwan:

China could be at war with the United States two years from now, a top Air Force general predicted in a bombastic and unusual memo to troops under his command, asserting a significantly shorter timeline before potential conflict than any other senior U.S. defense official to date.

Gen. Michael A. Minihan, who as head of Air Mobility Command oversees the service’s fleet of transport and refueling aircraft, warned personnel to speed their preparations for a potential conflict, citing Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aspirations and the possibility that Americans will not be paying attention until it is too late.

“I hope I am wrong,” Minihan wrote. “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

In a Taiwan crisis I would be very surprised if the North Koreans did not launch provocations in support of their Chinese allies just to divert U.S. troops and attention to the peninsula:

Seoul “should be fully prepared” for North Korean provocations in the event of a crisis between China and Taiwan, South Korea’s chief diplomat said this week.

Foreign Minister Park Jin, speaking to lawmakers Monday at a briefing for the Foreign and Unification Committee, said North Korea may engage in provocative behavior and exacerbate a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait.

“Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is very important for the peace and stability of our Korean Peninsula,” Park said. “Therefore, we would like to continue to work together with the U.S. while firmly maintaining the [South Korea]-U.S. alliance.”

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

It seems to me that President Biden is making it pretty clear that the U.S. will defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China:

President Joe Biden on Sunday for the second time this year said U.S. troops would help defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, further casting doubt on the United States’ policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding the island democracy.

Biden in an interview broadcast on CBS’ “60 Minutes” said the U.S. remains committed to the “One China” policy that acknowledges Beijing’s claim over Taiwan but considers the island’s status unresolved.

However, in the case of an “unprecedented attack,” U.S. troops would intervene, the president said.

An unnamed White House spokesman later said official U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan has not changed, CNBC reported Monday.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

People definitely need to get out of their minds that a war with China in defense of Taiwan will be anything like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Thousands could die in a single strike on a U.S. aircraft carrier or other ships and that is what this war game is demonstrating:

The game umpires include two doctoral students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a former Marine captain and Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist with MIT’s Center for International Studies and author of five books and numerous articles on China’s military power. Overseeing the project is Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior advisor and retired Marine colonel.

Some variants had Japan involved from the start. The Philippines allowed U.S. basing in some iterations, but not others. Game moderators permitted U.S. strikes on mainland China in some, but not others.

Throughout the week the game always reaches a stopping point where the players know the likely outcome and, nearly always within the roughly three-week timeframe of simulated combat, it reaches a stalemate on Taiwan between U.S. and Chinese ground forces. (……)

On the first U.S. turn, the players lost an entire aircraft carrier, though it was on the board from the “baseline” opening and not that team’s choice to have it where it was located. In a version earlier in the week, the United States lost 700 aircraft over the three-week battle.

None of these provided a pretty outcome, but in each of the versions, the United States prevailed, Cancian said.

Army Times

You can read more at the link, but these war games are showing the U.S. can win in the near term such conflict at great cost, however 10 years from now would that still be the case?

This could have gone bad very easily if one of these missiles had a malfunction and hit Taiwanese territory forcing them to respond in some way:

China fired multiple missiles toward waters near northeastern and southwestern Taiwan on Thursday, the island’s Defense Ministry said, as Beijing makes good on its promise that Taipei will pay a price for hosting US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command said in a statement that multiple missiles had been fired into the sea off the eastern part of Taiwan. It said all the missiles hit their target accurately.

“The entire live-fire training mission has been successfully completed and the relevant air and sea area control is now lifted,” China’s statement said. Earlier, the Eastern Theater Command said it had conducted long-range, live-fire training in the Taiwan Strait, state broadcaster CCTV reported, as part of planned military exercises around the island.

Taiwan reported Chinese long-range rockets had fallen near its islands of Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, which are in the Taiwan Strait, but located closer to the mainland than the main island of Taiwan. It later said a total of 11 Dongfeng (DF) missiles were fired to the waters north, south and east of the island between 1:56 p.m. and 4 p.m. local time (from 1:56 a.m. ET to 4 a.m. ET) on Thursday. 

The Chinese missiles flew over Taiwan Island for the first time, a Chinese military expert said on state television channel CCTV on Thursday, representing a major escalation of China’s military intimidation against Taiwan.

CNN

According to Taiwan the missiles were flying exoatmospheric and thus was not a threat to Taiwan:

The conventional missiles flew over airspace covered by Taiwanese defense missiles, said Maj. Gen. Meng Xiangqing, a professor of strategy at the National Defense University in Beijing.

“We hit the targets under the observation of US Aegis combat system, which means the Chinese military has solved the difficulties of hitting long-range targets on waters,” Meng said on CCTV.

The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said in a statement late Thursday night that the trajectory of the missiles was above the atmosphere and therefore posed no risk to Taiwan.

“Using the surveillance and reconnaissance systems, our military can accurately calculate the trajectory of the Dong Feng-series missiles fired by the Chinese Communist Party,” it said.

You can read more at the link, but fortunately the Taiwanese are keeping a cool head about this and not responding with test firing missiles back towards China in response.

This is making me wonder if Pelosi was going to land in Taiwan in secret and this official just blew her cover:

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan as part of her tour of Asia,according to a senior Taiwanese government official and a US official, despite warnings from Biden administration officials, who are worried about China’s response to such a high-profile visit. 

The stop — the first for a US House speaker in 25 years — is not currently on Pelosi’s public itinerary and comes at a time when US-China relations are already at a low point.

The Taiwanese official added that she is expected to stay in Taiwan overnight. It is unclear when exactly Pelosi will land in Taipei.

CNN

You can read more at the link.