Tag: South Korea

It has been a good week for President Moon Jae-in:

The ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has swept the local elections as well as by-elections for 12 empty National Assembly seats.

According to exit polls and the vote count by midnight Wednesday, the DPK clinched 14 out of 17 governor and mayoral posts. The largest conservative Liberty Korea Party (LKP) managed to win in the mayoral and governor elections in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province ― its traditional strongholds. Independent candidate Won Hee-ryong won the Jeju governor’s post.

The DPK overwhelmingly won in southeast regions including South Gyeongsang Province, Ulsan and Busan, exit polls showed. The party had never won elections in these regions before. The outcome means the liberal party successfully overcame deep-rooted hostilities in these areas, largely thanks to the high popularity of President Moon Jae-in.   [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I have always said that President Moon may be a leftist, but he is an extremely smart leftist.  Does anyone think it was just a coincidence that the Trump-Kim summit was timed to happen right before the election?  Also look at how Moon buried the damaging Druking scandal by naming a special prosecutor right before the Trump-Kim summit.  This timing assured that the news would be buried by coverage of the summit.

Finally the Moon administration has been able to effectively take over control of most of the major media outlets in South Korea.  Unless his North Korea policies end up imploding over the next year I expect that President Moon and thus the LKP will remain popular in South Korea.

As usual Professor B.R. Myers has correctly predicted how the Korean left led by the Moon administration will push for a confederation with North Korea by touting the economic benefits:

Image of B.R. Myers from the Korea Herald.

A few months ago I predicted the ruling Minjoo Party would begin agitating for a league or confederation before the June 13 elections. I said that in doing so it would focus on the economic benefits.

Last week I received the various parties’ campaign materials in a big envelope. (As a permanent resident I am eligible to vote in local elections.) Sure enough, the Minjoo pamphlet has a slogan in big brushstroke font at the top of one page: “Peace Equals Economy!” Underneath, next to a photo of President Moon, is the somewhat coded but still urgent pledge to “construct a permanent peace system this year.”

Of course his base knows what this means. To quote an approving headline in the nationalist-left Hankyoreh on April 29:

The plan for unification via a North-South league is hidden in the Panmunjom Declaration.

Indeed it is, and in plain sight. But the Hankyoreh was quick to drop this talk, being mindful of the need to get the Americans to Singapore in as blissful a state of ignorance as possible. This is why street demonstrations for the “peace system” have so far been rather small and sedate affairs (though with a higher proportion of young participants than conservative rallies).  [B.R. Myers]

I highly recommend reading the whole article at the link.

ROK Heads may remember that the Moon administration has been attempting to take the word “free” out of the ROK constitution in order to allow the Kim regime to maintain power in North Korea after a confederation.

Besides constitutional reform, to make this confederation possible, President Moon and Kim Jong-un need President Trump to drop sanctions.  This would allow the Moon administration to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast.  They would prefer President Trump to do this without the Kim regime having to give up their nuclear weapons.  Trump pushing the Kim regime to completely give up their nuclear weapons before sanctions are dropped makes Moon’s plans for a confederation much more difficult.  This is why Moon has been so complementary to President Trump and thrown around accolades such as “Nobel Peace Prize” in effort to win him over to drop sanctions.

Eventually, as B.R. Myers writes, both the Moon administration and the Kim regime hope this confederation will lead to their ultimate goal of the withdrawal of USFK.  As I have written about before, I don’t expect the Moon administration to directly call for this because it will mobilize the conservative ROK political opposition against him.  Instead he will use the cost sharing negotiations and anti-US groups to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration decides on its own to withdraw USFK.

Once again I recommend reading B.R. Myers entire article at this link.

Members of a South Korean civic group stage a rally in front of the Capella Hotel in Singapore on June 12, 2018, demanding the repatriation of South Koreans kidnapped by North Korea as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un holds a summit meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the hotel. (Yonhap)

Forget all the talk about denuclearization on the Korean peninsula following the Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore, the biggest news for me is President Trump announcing the stopping of joint military exercises:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will stop “provocative and expensive” war games with South Korea in a surprise reference to the joint military exercises Pyongyang has criticized as a rehearsal of invasion.

Trump made the remarks during a press conference that followed his historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the Singaporean resort island of Sentosa.

“War games are very expensive,” he said, raising the issue of their cost.

“I think it is very provocative … You have a country that is right next door,” he added, referring to the communist state.   [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but President Moon has previously said that UFG would be scaled down and now President Trump has used to word stopped.  I guess we will see what this all means, but for now it is pretty clear that the August UFG exercise will not happen the way it is normally executed.

If the joint exercises are stopped this is a big win for President Moon.  His left wing base does not support the exercises while the political opposition conservative party does.  So Moon’s base gets what it wants, for now and Moon can tell his political opposition that he was not the one that cancelled the joint exercises, President Trump did.

These joint exercise are important for USFK due to the high change over in personnel on the peninsula which these exercises help to keep personnel trained with their ROK military counterparts.  However, just like everything that North Korea has committed to cancelling joint exercises are easily reversible from the US perspective.  I don’t see President Trump committing to something non-reversible like troop withdrawals from the peninsula until the Kim regime does something non-reversible such as removing nuclear material to a third country for disposal.

It should continue to be an interesting year to see how this all plays out.

Below is the statement that President Trump and Kim Jong-un signed during their summit in Singapore with my comments below each point:

Here is the first part of the statement:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

There has been a lot of talk about the US opening an embassy in North Korea.  This line seems to open the door to this possibility if North Korea behaves of course.  An opening of an embassy would symbolize the normalizing of relations between the DPRK and the US which is why I don’t think this will be something happening in the near term.  Once the DPRK makes irreversible decisions to end their nuclear program than I think this will become a possibility.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join the efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

This is something that President Moon Jae-in and the Kim regime has been actively pushing for.  Professor B.R. Myers has written extensively on this, but Moon wants to eventually establish a North-South Confederation.  This is why him and the Korean left have been attempting to amend the ROK constitution to make this happen.  One of the changes they have proposed was changing this passage in the ROK constitution:

“The Republic of Korea shall seek national unification, and shall formulate and carry out a peaceful unification policy based on the free and democratic basic order.”

In the proposed revision the word “free” would be removed which would open the door to the Kim regime maintaining power in North Korea after confederation with their own form of democracy.  President Moon and his left wing supporters will never admit to this, but that is the only rational reason why they would want this change in the ROK constitution.

Should this matter to President Trump?  It seems that from the US perspective if the DPRK ends its nuclear and ICBM programs then it should be left up to the ROK to decide their own future.  If the ROK public wants a confederation that sees billions of their taxpayer dollars going up North to support the Kim regime that will continue to maintain a massive conventional military force to threaten them with, then so be it.  Remember the Kim regime is only going to agree to a confederation on their terms.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panumunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclerarization of the Korean Peninsula.

Notice that the wording of this statement is “work toward” which makes no demands of the Kim regime to actually denuclearize.  So far the North Koreans have only taken denuclearization actions that are easily reversible.  I think that in response the US will only make concessions that are easily reversible.  I don’t think the US will drop sanctions until concrete actions are taken by the Kim regime to eliminate their nuclear weapons such as shipping nuclear material to a third country.  The DPRK and the ROK have long wanted a “freeze deal” that would allow the North Koreans to keep their nukes in return for dropping sanctions.  I have so far seen no indication of an agreement of a “freeze deal” from this summit.    If the US drops sanctions against North Korea for little to nothing in return than this will be a huge win for Kim Jong-un.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

It will be interesting to see how this is executed because in the past the US stopped the recovery work because of the ridiculous fees that North Korea demanded.  The North Koreans know exactly where the bulk of the remains are because the US military buried a large number of casualties in marked cemeteries before evacuating North Korea after the Chinese intervened in the war.

To be able to repatriate these remains to their family members the North Koreans have been demanding inflated prices which just shows how low the Kim regime is willing to go to make money.  The work to recover the remains ended in 2005 with 220 remains recovered.

As recently as 2014 the Kim regime was trying to get the US to restart recovery of the remains threatening to let them get washed away.  It looks like the Kim regime has now convinced the Trump administration to restart the remains recovery, but at what cost?

Final Analysis

My analysis on this is that the Trump administration would love to have North Korea completely denuclearize and give up their ICBMs in exchange for dropping of sanctions and being reintegrated into the world community.  However, I am confident based on the people that President Trump has around him, that he is not naive to the past history of the Kim regime.

I think this is the one final chance for the Kim regime to make peace with the United States and if they try to play their old games again, that will be the excuse the President needs to take military action against them.  This kind of reminds me of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks during the Clinton administration.  Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader, Yasser Arafat was given the opportunity to make peace with the Israelis during the 2000 Camp David Summit and did not do it which led to the Second Intifada.  This gave the Israelis the excuse they needed to crush the Palestinians which they did.

Does anyone see any similarities between these two photographs? 

Kim Jong-un currently has the opportunity to seek peace with the United States just like Arafat did with the Israelis.  Arafat could not bring himself to make peace with the Israelis despite the great deal that was offered to him that gave the Palestinians nearly everything they wanted.  Arafat it was argued did not agree to the deal because it jeopardized his leadership status by being responsible for building a state along side Israel instead of a deadly, authoritarian opposition which is all he knew how to do.

Will Kim Jong-un accept denuclearization in return for building his state after the dropping of sanctions?  Time will tell, but like the Israelis I would not be surprised if President Trump isn’t ready to take military action if the North Koreans return to a provocation cycle again.  Just like with the Palestinians, I think things will end badly for the Kim regime if that is the course of action they choose to take.

Final Note: By the way did anyone else feel like Kim Jong-un looked like he was a contestant on the Celebrity Apprentice show during this summit?  If they would have let Dennis Rodman into the summit it truly would have a been a Celebrity Apprentice episode.

Students majoring in Korean studies at Rice University in Houston tour SK Innovation in the southeastern industrial city of Ulsan in this photo released by the company on June 8, 2018. (Yonhap)

There was a horrible accident over the weekend outside of Yongsan Garrison’s Gate 13:

An American family headed to a high school graduation ceremony on Yongsan Garrison was struck by tragedy on Saturday when their car was involved in a fatal collision with a motorcycle.

The crash, which occurred outside Gate 13, killed two people — one American and the South Korean motorcycle driver — and injured another American, garrison spokesman Wes Hayes told Stars and Stripes.

Hayes declined to identify the casualties and said the cause of the crash remained under investigation.

“Our hearts and prayers go out to all the victims of this tragic accident today,” Hayes said.

Many members of the community gathered at a chapel on post after the graduation ceremony to console each other and grieve.

A person at the chapel said the fatality was an American girl who was with her family on the way to watch her brother graduate from Seoul American High School. Her father, a civilian, was reportedly in critical condition.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but hat tip to ROK Head Guitard for leaving the below link that shows the aftermath of this accident:

This next video shows the injured American father asking for help:

Condolences to all the family and friends effected by this tragic accident.

A South Korean tourist visiting Australia is very lucky to be alive:

A South Korean tourist was found safe and “in good spirits” six days after falling into a deep ravine while taking photos from a mountaintop in northeastern Australia, officials said.

Rescuers said the chances of survival for 25-year-old Han Joo-hee had been “near zero” after spending nearly a week without food in the remote area.

Han disappeaered on June 1 after telling friends she was going to climb Mount Tyson, a peak in bushland south of Cairns in northern Queensland state, police said.

She was not reported missing until Wednesday, when police, soldiers and emergency crews launched a search, finally locating her Thursday stuck in a deep ravine near a waterfall.

She was winched to safety by helicopter and taken to a local hospital suffering only minor injuries.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

This photo provided by the Hadong County Office on June 7, 2018, shows the Seomjin River in Hadong, South Gyeongsang Province. (Yonhap)

Now this is a weird story:

A gender equality ministry official slammed his car into the front gate of the U.S. Embassy in Seoul on Thursday and claimed he wanted to seek asylum in the United States, police said.

The official, identified only by his surname Yoon, was immediately taken into custody after crashing his sedan into the steel gate of the embassy in central Seoul around 7:15 p.m.

Police said Yoon, 48, is a director-level official at the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. The ministry is located in Seoul’s main government complex building across the street from the U.S. Embassy.

Police said Yoon went to work in the morning and left early after taking a half-day off.

Witnesses said Yoon’s car was traveling on the boulevard in front of the embassy before it abruptly changed its direction toward the embassy.

As he was overpowered by police, Yoon shouted, “Help me!” several times.

Yoon later told police that he slammed the car into the embassy because he wanted to seek asylum in the U.S. due to reasons related to North Korea. No further details were immediately known.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but if you are wondering Yoon was not drunk at the time to explain this crazy story.  On a positive note at least the US embassy now knows that their gate works at stopping speeding cars from smashing through it.