Tag: North Korea

The North Koreans have repeatedly violated the Inter-Korean military agreement signed in 2018. However, experts have cautioned Seoul from ending the agreement for the following reasons:

South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo, front row left and North Korean Minister of the People’s Armed Forces No Kwang-chol, front row right, shake hands after signing an inter-Korean military agreement during the inter-Korean summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in, back row left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, Sept. 19, 2018. Joint Press Corps

“The agreement establishes guardrails that could prevent incidents from escalating into crises, however imperfect they may be. There is some utility in having buffer zones,” said Naoko Aoki, an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation who specializes in East Asian security issues.

The CMA has instituted buffer zones between the two Koreas by prohibiting hostility on land, sea and air near the border. Specifically, the two sides are restricted from conducting live-fire artillery drills within five kilometers of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL). Plus, no-fly zones have been implemented along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), along with a ban on the operation of unmanned aerial vehicles, helicopters and other aircraft within 40 kilometers of the MDL.

“Given the current tensions (between the two Koreas), it is unlikely that another agreement like this can be drawn up in the foreseeable future, so that should be taken into consideration,” she added.

Terence Roehrig, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, echoed this sentiment, stating, “Though North Korea has violated the agreement on several occasions and is not adhering to the spirit of the CMA, South Korea is better off with the agreement in place than walking away from it.”

Roehrig added that security concerns regarding North Korea’s non-compliance with the CMA are relatively minor compared to the security and political costs of ending the agreement, which would undercut the broader goal of promoting long-term stability on the Korean Peninsula.

The absence of the military agreement would lead to increased belligerence from North Korea, analysts believe.

“Pyongyang would craft a narrative portraying Seoul as the aggressor, using South Korea’s suspension of the military agreement to justify its military provocations,” Roehrig said. 

In that sense, Aoki suggested that South Korea should further use the idea of suspending the CMA as political leverage against North Korea, instead of actually taking actions to scrap it, saying, “North Korea’s violation of the agreement makes it a problematic actor, so South Korea has the moral high ground.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Bloomberg News takes a crack at explaining why Kim Jong-un’s daughter has been used to heavily in state propaganda over the past year:

The role of Kim’s daughter in state propaganda appears to be showing the public there is another generation waiting to run the family dynasty forged in the Cold War and it will rely on nuclear weapons for its survival. She humanizes Kim as a father, with the possible intent of conveying a message to North Korean parents that supporting an arms program means protecting their children from a U.S. invasion and a loss of the “unique” socialist state forged by the Kim family.

“The preservation of the Kim family rule is, of course, inextricably tied to the country’s weapons program,” said Soo Kim, a former Korea analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, who now works at U.S.-based management consulting firm LMI. 

She added while the intent may be to soften the image of Kim Jong Un, that could be a hard sell. “The North Korean people are still starving and living under Draconian repression – missiles or not. And unless Kim takes dramatic steps to improve the living conditions of his people and give them true freedom, their perceptions of Kim are unlikely to change fundamentally.”

But that has not stopped North Korea from using the daughter for political purposes. She has appeared 16 times in public over the past year — with 13 of the events related to the military, two for sports and one for the economy, according to information from the South Korean government.

Bloomberg

You can read more at the link.

Since the North Koreans will probably try and launch their rocket on a southern trajectory is will likely pass over Japan’s southern Ryuku Islands thus the reason for the notification:

North Korea has notified Japan of a plan to launch a space rocket between Wednesday and Dec. 1, Reuters reported Monday, as the recalcitrant regime is preparing for what would be its third attempt to put a military spy satellite into orbit.

The North apprised Japan’s Coast Guard of the planned launch in the direction of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea, according to Reuters. 

South Korea has said Pyongyang may go ahead with the launch as early as “this week or so,” while urging the regime to “immediately” stop the launch preparations.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I guess we will see if the third time is the charm for the North Koreans to get rocket to work, this time with Russian assistance:

 North Korea may launch its military spy satellite as early as “within a week or so,” South Korea’s defense minister said Sunday, citing intelligence of the North’s preparations.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said the launch could take place before South Korea launches its first indigenous reconnaissance satellite on Falcon 9, U.S. aerospace company SpaceX’s two-stage rocket, from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Nov. 30.

“South Korea and the United States are monitoring North Korea’s movements. North Korea’s preparations are under way for a launch to take place within a week or so,” Shin said in an interview aired on public broadcaster KBS earlier in the day.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

I doubt North Korea cares at all about this Joint statment because they know no one is actually going to take any real measures to stop their ballistic missile and nuclear programs:

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (L) and South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik (R) attend the inaugural defense ministerial meeting of South Korea and the United Nations Command member states at Seoul’s defense ministry on Nov. 14, 2023. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

South Korea and the United Nations Command (UNC) member states adopted a joint statement Tuesday condemning North Korea’s “unlawful” nuclear and missile program and vowed a united response in the case of Pyongyang’s aggression.

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik and his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, as well as senior defense officials and representatives from 16 other UNC member states, gathered for their first meeting at the defense ministry to evaluate its role and explore ways to deepen their security cooperation.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

This is a good thought experiment, would all these university students and other anti-Israeli activists come out in defense of North Korea if South Korea responded to a Hamas like attack from the Kim regime?:

Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, right, shakes hands with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the presidential residence in Hannam-dong, central Seoul during a dinner meeting Sunday. 

“Even if North Korea miscalculates and commits any provocation, including a Hamas-style surprise attack, we will maintain a South Korea-U.S. combined defense posture that can immediately and resolutely punish it,” Yoon was quoted as saying, referring to the militant group’s attack on Israel last month.   
  
Austin conveyed U.S. President Joe Biden’s firm intent to further strengthen the robust South Korea-U.S. alliance more than ever, according to the presidential office.   
  
He reaffirmed his firm commitment to defend the South Korea by deploying the full spectrum of U.S. military capabilities.   

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

If the North Koreans cannot get their rocket to work after receiving assistance from the Russians they might as well give up trying:

This file photo, taken Oct. 18, 2023, shows Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho speaking in an interview with Yonhap News Agency and Yonhap News TV. (Yonhap)

North Korea appears to have been receiving technical assistance from Russia over the launch of a military spy satellite, and there is a “very high” chance for the North to press ahead with it once the country completes fixing technical glitches, South Korea’s unification minister said Monday.

Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho made the remark during a meeting with a group of reporters amid speculation that North Korea is in the final stage of its preparations to make a third attempt to put a military spy satellite into orbit after its failed attempts in May and August.

“It is hard to predict when North Korea will make the third attempt for the launch. But there seem to be signs of the North receiving technical assistance from Russia,” Kim said in a meeting marking his 100th day in office.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

This is one of the few industries that North Korea actually excels at so it makes sense they would want to celebrate it:

North Korea has designated a “missile industry day” to mark a test-firing of its Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in 2022, the North’s state media reported Sunday. 

North Korea test-fired the ICBM on Nov. 18, 2022, with leader Kim Jong-un declaring that the missile reaffirmed his regime’s acquisition of a powerful and reliable capability to counter any nuclear threats.

Nov. 18 was designated as the “missile industry day” because it displayed “the might of a world-class nuclear power and the strongest ICBM possessor was demonstrated to the whole world,” the North’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.

You can read more at the link.