From the US perspective assuring the ROK that America will full support them against a nuclear North Korea and that they have no need to pursue their own nuclear weapons program makes sense for near term regionally stability. However, since the Chinese government are the one’s enabling the Kim regime to move forward with their nuclear weapons program, it may take a shock like South Korea and Japan taking concrete actions to move forward with their own nuclear weapons program to get China to take real action against North Korea:
South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo, center, shakes hands with Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, right, commander of the U.S. Forces Korea, at a press conference announcing a joint press release by South Korean and U.S. defense leaders. Gen. Lee Soon-jin, left, chairman of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, also attended the press conference. [PARK JONG-KEUN]“President Obama reaffirmed the unshakeable U.S. commitment to the security of the [South], and the two leaders agreed to work together to forge a united and strong international response to North Korea’s latest reckless behavior,” the White House said.
The U.S. assurance to defend its ally from escalating North Korean threats came as conservatives in the South started demanding that the country arm itself with nuclear weapons. At a Supreme Council meeting of the ruling Saenuri Party, several leaders publicly stressed the need for defensive nuclear armaments.
“The time has come for the South to have a peaceful nuclear program for the sake of self-defense to counter the North’s fearful, destructive nuclear weapons,” said Rep. Won Yoo-chul, floor leader of the Saenuri Party. “The North is aiming at our head with nuclear weapons, and it is frustrating for us to just respond with sanctions.”
Won, a former chairman of the National Assembly’s Defense Committee, had previously commented that the South should become a nuclear state, but this was the first time he voiced the opinion as the ruling party’s floor leader. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
It appears that David Sanger at the New York Times understands what I have been saying for years, no matter how much anyone want to talk to them, the Kim regime has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons:
From Pyongyang’s viewpoint, there is little incentive to give up the nuclear arsenal. The world is not exactly banging on North Korea’s door to do business the way it is with Iran: The North has no oil, no striving middle class and little strategic value in the modern world. Its greatest power is the threat it poses to one of the most prosperous corners of the globe.
But many also consider it too dangerous to allow North Korea to fail. The Chinese know that if it ceases to exist, the South Koreans, and their American allies, will be on the Chinese border. The South Koreans know that if a conflict breaks out, the North will lose — but only after Seoul, just 35 miles or so from the North Korean border, is a smoking ruin.
So the North Korean strategy is to up the ante and hope the world will acknowledge it as a nuclear weapons power that has to be dealt with. H-Bomb or no H-bomb, nuclear weapons are the country’s insurance policy, and the test was a sign that it has no intention of cashing it in. [New York Times]
The Kim regime knows that Beijing will not do anything that would undermine the stability of their regime and thus why they continue with their provocation strategy:
Trucks rumbled across the Chinese-North Korean border Thursday in a sign that trade was continuing despite Beijing’s anger over the North’s avowed hydrogen bomb test, which could spark economic retaliation and further estrangement between the once-close communist allies.
There were no obvious signs of disruption in the northeastern city of Dandong that sits on the Yalu River directly across from North Korea’s Sinuiju. The twin cities are the conduit through which much of North Korea’s international trade passes.
China condemned Wednesday’s purported test, which sent tremors across parts of northeastern China near the North Korean border and alarmed residents.
“I think it is a threat and sabotage to China and to the world peace for such a country to own nuclear weapons,” Dandong resident Tian Zhibin said in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday.
Analysts say Beijing will likely join other members of the U.N. Security Council in imposing tougher economic sanctions on its communist ally.
Beijing could also introduce unilateral measures such as tighter inspections of the trucks that cross the Yalu carrying mostly consumer goods bound for the North. China-North Korean economic projects could be suspended and Chinese companies and banks discouraged from doing business with North Korea. [Associated Press]
I would think the Kim regime would have expected this to happen, so it will be interesting to see what their response will be. Would they try and shoot at one of the loudspeakers again in response to further heighten tensions?:
In response to North Korea’s latest nuclear test, South Korea on Thursday announced it would resume cross-border propaganda broadcasts that Pyongyang considers an act of war. Seoul also began talks with Washington that could see the arrival of nuclear-powered U.S. submarines and warplanes to the Korean Peninsula.
From Seoul to Washington, Beijing to the United Nations, world powers are looking at ways to punish Pyongyang for the test of what it called a new and powerful hydrogen bomb.
The loudspeaker broadcasts, which will start Friday, believed to be the birthday of young North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, are certain to infuriate authoritarian Pyongyang because they are meant to raise questions in North Korean minds about the infallibility of the ruling Kim family. South Korea stopped earlier broadcasts after it agreed with Pyongyang in late August on a package of measures aimed at easing animosities that had the rivals threatening war.
Experts, meanwhile, are trying to uncover more details about the detonation that drew worldwide skepticism and condemnation. [Associated Press]
This image, captured from North Korea’s Korean Central Television on Jan. 4, 2016, shows a scene from a North Korean film, “Comrade Kim Goes Flying,” that the broadcaster aired for the first time on the previous day. The romantic comedy, the first North Korean film co-produced with British and Belgian partners in 2012, is a tale of a young woman coal miner who dreams of becoming a trapeze artist. (Yonhap)
The Korea Herald explains why a hydrogen bomb is such an important advancement by North Korea if they did in fact test one. It all comes down to the explosive power of an H-bomb compared to a nuclear fission bomb. Could you imagine what one of these things would do if used against Seoul or Beijing?:
Nuclear weapons are classified into atomic, neutron and hydrogen bombs. Among them, hydrogen bombs, also known as thermonuclear bombs, are known to be the most powerful due to their unique structure that expresses explosive power.
Unlike atomic bombs that derive their energy from nuclear fission — the splitting of atoms — hydrogen bombs obtain their explosive power from both nuclear fission and fusion, the process of forming a heavier nucleus from two lighter ones, such as the nuclei of the hydrogen isotopes tritium or deuterium.
While fission bombs can have as small as 1 kiloton of explosive power — North Korea’s 2013 nuclear test was known to have 6 to 7 kilotons — hydrogen bombs’ explosive power ranges into the hundreds of kilotons. [The Korea Herald]
It will be interesting to see if this was in fact a hydrogen bomb or just more bluster from North Korea. North Korea claims the nuclear test is directed towards being a deterrent towards the United States, but I think it is becoming more of a deterrent against the Chinese government which the Kim regime has an increasingly rocky relationship with:
North Korea has carried out its fourth nuclear test, claiming that it succeeded in developing a hydrogen bomb.
Hours after a massive tremor was detected from the northeastern part of North Korea where its nuclear facility is located, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday officially announced the test.
The state-run media carried the North Korean government’s statement, which said that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered a hydrogen bomb test.
While calling the test “completely successful,” the KCNA claimed that its weapons program is a nuclear deterrent against the threats from the United States. [KBS World Radio]
