I would think the last thing the North Koreans would want to do is create a provocation that would distract attention away from their great enemy Park Geun-hye being impeached and removed from office:
South Korea’s defense chief called on the military Thursday to remain vigilant as North Korea might carry out a provocation amid the ongoing political crisis involving President Park Geun-hye.
On Friday, 300 lawmakers from the ruling and opposition parties are set to vote on an impeachment bill against Park. The country has been engulfed by a massive corruption scandal involving Park and her close confidante since late October.
Defense Minister Han Min-koo made the comments during his visit to the 3rd Army headquarters, one of the country’s three field armies in charge of protecting Gyeonggi Province that surrounds Seoul from any military threats by North Korea. [Yonhap]
North Korea’s cyber warfare teams apparently have hacked into South Korea’s cyber command:
North Korea appears to have hacked South Korea’s cyber command in what could be the latest cyberattack against Seoul, the military here said Tuesday, .
“It seems the intranet server of the cyber command has been contaminated with malware. We found that some military documents, including confidential information, have been hacked,” an official at the Ministry of National Defense told Yonhap News Agency. He said that authorities suspect North Korea is behind the latest online infiltrations.
The cyber command said it isolated the affected server from the whole network to avoid the spread of viruses. But it has yet to fully determine what data were leaked.
It marked the first time that the data of South Korea’s cyber command has been compromised. South Korea set up the command in January 2010 as part of its efforts to counter external hacking attempts on the country’s military. [Yonhap]
You can read the rest at the link, but the article says that classified information may have been stolen.
Some else has jumped on the North Korean regime change bandwagon:
Regime change is the only way to get North Korea off the current path, a former top American diplomat said Monday.
Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state, made the point during a security forum, saying he no longer believes it’s possible to change Pyongyang’s behavior without a regime change.
“I, like some of the others around here, for years spent a lot of time talking about … we don’t really want regime change in North Korea. We just want to change the regime, their behavior change. We’re not looking to interfere with the leadership of the DPRK,” Armitage said.
“I no longer hold that view. The only way in my view that North Korea can be dissuaded from their present path is by a regime change,” he said during the forum on the Korea-U.S. alliance at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Armitage also said that the U.S. should put greater pressure on the North over its human rights record and cut the regime off the international financial system.
“In my experience dealing with North Korea, two things have made an impression on them. One was the human rights security council resolution … and our interference in the finances of North Korea in the Macau bank,” he said. [Yonhap]
I don’t think we are going to see the North Koreans do anything serious until the whole President Park fiasco plays out. They are getting a propaganda coup out of this scandal and have a real chance of having a South Korean left wing politician favorable to North Korea elected as the next President. A serious provocation cycle could put all of this at risk:
In this photo, taken on Nov. 8, 2016, Thomas S. Vandal, commanding general of the Eighth Army, delivers a speech on security issues at a Seoul university. (Yonhap)
A top U.S. general here warned that North Korea could stage a provocation within two months to test the incoming U.S. administration or take advantage of political instability in Seoul.
Thomas S. Vandal, commander of the Eighth Army, made the remark in a luncheon meeting with senior reporters, citing the communist country’s track record of staging provocations in times of transition of power in Seoul and Washington.
Though there are no specific signs yet, he said, North Korea could raise military tension in an attempt to test President-elect Donald Trump, as Pyongyang has no idea of his policy toward the North.
He also said the North may also be tempted to provoke the South at a time Seoul is transfixed by a sprawling corruption scandal involving President Park Geun-hye and her close confidante. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I think the February/March timeframe when the next Key Resolve exercise happens the North Koreans will probably do there normal protests and rhetoric. However, I don’t expect them to do a serious provocation such as sinking a South Korean ship or launching an artillery strike on a border island like we have seen in the past.
“We help them copy whatever they want onto microSD cards,” said Yao, who would only give his surname, in his tiny store primarily selling cameras.
“They usually want South Korean TV dramas,” he said, sliding open a display cabinet to reveal a stack of the tiny memory cards, each the size of a fingernail, that slot directly into DVD players and computers.
The flow of information in and out of North Korea is tightly controlled by authorities. Most North Koreans cannot access the internet or foreign media and share content secretly on USB sticks.
But tiny microSD cards are increasingly popular now because North Korea has been cracking down on USBs, Yao said.
“It’s getting harder to bring USBs across the border, customs will check what’s on them. But microSD cards are smaller, easier to slip through,” he said.Apart from their small size – the cards can be woven into clothes or hidden between the pages of a book – MicroSD cards can often be directly inserted into a “Notel”, a device popular in North Korea which can be powered by a car battery and plays DVDs and media from USB sticks and memory cards.”MicroSD cards make it easier and safer for North Koreans to smuggle foreign digital media in from China,” said Sokeel Park of Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), an organization which works with defectors. [Reuters]
You can read the rest at the link, but like I have been saying for years, subversive media is the type of engagement with North Korea I can support.
You can read more about North Korea’s “Notels” at the below link:
Another week and another threat against South Korea from the Kim regime:
Kim Jong Un instructed North Korean troops to “wipe out South Korea” in the latest sign of aggression from North Korea’s supreme leader. Kim’s remarks came during a military border exercise this week as the United Nations Security Council adopted sanctions targeting Pyongyang’s coal exports.
“This is how we must forcefully respond to those South Koreans. At first strike we must completely break the will of those South Koreans and wipe them all out,” Kim said according state-controlled television network KCTV.
Kim spoke directly to a marine brigade and a frontline unit that has been tasked with fighting Seoul. The drills included the rapid firing of artillery and Kim was briefed on their training plan, UPI reported Friday.
The annual winter training exercise was held near a disputed maritime border in the Yellow Sea. North Korea state media said an island targeted during the training saw loud explosions and light that simulated “the enemy’s cities and military targets submerged in a sea of fire.” [International Business Tribune]
Kim Jong-un may be enjoying the political scandal going in South Korea, but I am willing to bet the people in North Korea are noticing in the images shown in the media how South Koreans are allowed to rally and protest their government and they cannot:
Now, North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-Un can just sit back and watch as his counterpart President Park Geun-hye looks set to leave office under popular pressure. South Koreans have protested against Park for five straight weeks over her alleged involvement in an influence-peddling case, adding to spiking frustration with the nation’s history of political corruption.
“For North Korea’s leadership, the political instability [in South Korea] is excellent evidence for why its system and society are better than South Korea’s, supporting its position that North Korea is the one true, legitimate Korea,” Alison Evans, deputy head and senior Asia-Pacific analyst at IHS Markit, explained.
The two Koreas share language and family ties, but remain bitter enemies at the political level, having fought a three-year war to a stalemate in 1953. But they are currently experiencing a rare moment of unity in their common resentment towards Park.
Media outlets in both countries have lashed out against the head of state, with op-eds routinely referring to Park as a traitor and calling for her prosecution. Of course, North Korean media is entirely state-run, unlike the South.
“North Korean media has widely reported on the turmoil in South Korean politics to show how, unlike Kim Jong Un’s government, South Korea’s government does not listen to its people, particularly the workers’ unions,” Evans continued. [CNBC]
Over at One Free Korea he has a great read posted in response to Joel Wit’s recent article in the Atlantic advocating for President-Elect Trump to negotiate a deal with the North Koreans. You can read my response to Wit’s article at this link. In One Free Korea’s post he does a good job articulating what North Korea’s negotiating strategy really is:
What North Korea really wants is a peace treaty negotiation — the longer and more inconclusive, the better. Its diplomatic strategy is to draw the U.S. and South Korea into an extended “peace process” in which it would make a series of up-front demands (the lifting of sanctions) in exchange for (at most) a partial freeze of its nuclear programs, which would effectively recognize it as a de facto nuclear weapons state. In short order, it would also demand the end to U.S.-South Korean military exercises, the curtailment of missile defense, and other demands that would ensure its nuclear and military hegemony over South Korea. Then, Pyongyang would demand an end to diplomatic and humanitarian criticism of its regime, censorship of anti-regime leaflets, demonstrations, and satirical films — in short, a limited recognition of its political supremacy over Seoul that would end in a one-country-two-systems Korea under North Korean domination, with Pyongyang gradually escalating its financial and political demands. [One Free Korea]
