Trump has done pretty well for himself by not listening to the experts. I guess we will see if he wants to the listen to the so called experts about North Korea and decide to cut a deal with the Kim regime:
“Engagement” will be the most viable option for the new U.S. government to make North Korea give up its nuclear and missile programs, three experts said Friday.
A forum in Seoul called on the Donald Trump administration that begins in January to seek dialogue-based engagement policies toward a nuclear-armed North Korea.
Ken E. Gause, director of the International Affairs Group at the Center for Naval Analyses, outlined possible policy options for the incoming Trump administration — pre-emption, intensified sanctions and engagement — as President Obama’s “strategic patience” approach is widely received as a failure.
He proposed the new government give priority to engagement involving both dialogue and pressure, citing the potentially catastrophic downsides of pre-emptive attacks and the ineffectiveness of stronger sanctions heavily reliant on China.
“It is an option, however, that will require many years, if not decades, to achieve,” Gause said.
“The (engagement) option is the least appealing to the U.S. and South Korean policymakers. It is tainted by the history of past policies of appeasement. It smacks of rewarding bad behavior and giving Pyongyang de facto recognition as a nuclear state, something the United States and South Korea have said they will never do,” Gause said. [Yonhap]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (background, 2nd from L) watches a tile-breaking training session during a visit to a special operation battalion under the Unit 525 of the Korean People’s Army, in this photo released by the North’s Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station on Nov. 4, 2016. As is customary, the station didn’t mention the timing of his visit or the unit’s location. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
It was an amazing US election to see Donald Trump defy expectations and win the US Presidency over Hillary Clinton. Congratulations to him and his campaign team. His election will definitely be something that political scientists will be talking about for decades to come. By the way I thought his acceptance speech was really good:
“Now it’s time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans,” he said.
To countries around the world, Trump said, “While we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone.”
“All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility, partnership, not conflict,” he said. [Yonhap]
Here is what South Korean President Park Geun-hye had to say about the election of Donald Trump:
The commander-in-chief made the remarks during a briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) session after Republican Donald Trump won the White House in a hard-fought race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
“Given the United States is our ally and that the South Korea-U.S. relationship has a great impact on our diplomacy, security and economy, I think we need to extensively explore ways to develop close relations with the incoming Trump administration,” she said.
“In light of the grave situation in which North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats are growing day by day, I call on you to establish cooperative ties with the incoming U.S. administration early in the stage of the government transition,” she added. [Yonhap]
So what does Donald Trump’s victory mean for the people of South Korea who were deeply against the election of Trump? Here are my quick thoughts on the biggest areas that the ROK should expect possible impacts on:
US-ROK Free Trade Agreement: Due to Trump’s election victory the Korean stock market has tanked. The market tanked because of fears that Trump will want to renegotiate the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement:A key concern is Trump’s “America first” position that includes a preference for trade protectionism.“The market will inevitably face a short-term adjustment if Trump wins,” said Kim Ji-na, a fixed income analyst at IBK Securities. “There’s even a possibility that the 1,900 barrier could fall as Trump’s victory will only raise instability and bring about policy risks.”The bigger concern is that Korea’s economy, which has been facing tough times due to shrinking exports, will suffer heavily.“The Trump victory will not only act as a potential risk for the Korean market but also the global economy,” said Hwang Na-young, a Woori Finance Research Institute researcher. “Once Trump and the Republicans take over, most of the major policies of the Barack Obama years will be reversed: repealing Obamacare, huge tax cuts, easing of financial regulations and a preference for fossil fuel.
“Major changes are likely in regards to trade policies as protectionism deepens on top of an isolationist approach to diplomatic polices.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Here are some facts and figures about Korea-US trade from the Joong Ang Ilbo article:
I would be surprised if Trump makes it a priority to go after the US-ROK FTA. Considering the amount of manufacturing jobs brought to the US from Korean car manufacturers it seems the US-ROK FTA is a deal he would want to keep in place. I think his immediate focus will be on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) which he has been highly critical of.
North Korea Nuclear Issue: I don’t see Trump wanting to make any nuclear agreement with Kim Jong-un considering the country’s past track record of violating the agreements. What I do think he will do is push for more sanctions against Chinese banks and businesses in an effort to pressure the Chinese government to reign in North Korea:
Trump also identified North Korea as a problem for China, not the U.S.
“I would get China to make that guy disappear, in one form or another, very quickly,” Trump said in February on the CBS TV program “This Morning.”
“China has absolute control of North Korea. They won’t say it, but they do. And they should make that problem disappear.” [Korea Times]
Immigration: Any Koreans living illegally in the US and hoping for amnesty should probably forget about that idea happening anytime soon. With that said I do think ironically that with a President Trump an immigration reform deal is more likely because he will try and cut a deal that is not blanket amnesty, but at the same time provides a process for foreign workers to be sponsored to work in the US. This would reduce illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border and possibly allow him to say he does not need to fully build his famous wall.
Conclusion: So those are my quick thoughts on what the election of Donald Trump means for South Korea. I think the biggest impact is that the ROK should expect to pay more for the upkeep of USFK. If not then Trump may begin relooking the US-ROK FTA which South Korea has much more to lose. Does anyone else have any other areas that they foresee that a President Trump will have a significant impact on in South Korea over the next four years? If so please share your opinions in the comments section.
The real question is why isn’t she already sanctioned considering how she is a key regime figure?:
The South Korean government is considering blacklisting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister. The unification ministry said on Monday, 7 November, that it was “carefully” reviewing adding Kim Yo-jong to its list of unilateral sanctions imposed against the reclusive state, following its fifth nuclear test in September.
Seoul has already blacklisted many Pyongyang officials after the country engaged in frequent missile tests earlier in the year, in addition to a nuclear test in January. However, the North Korean leader and his younger sister were not in the list, Yonhap news agency reported. [IB Times]
Wayne Minard was 17 when he joined the U.S. Army. (Bruce Stubbs)
Wayne Minard knew at an early age that he wanted to be a soldier.
He joined the Army when he was 17 after persuading his mother to sign his enlistment papers. His family thought he would go on to build a lifelong career in the military.
But his career as a corporal in North Korea lasted only two years.
Minard was reported missing in action on Nov. 26, 1950, the day after Chinese communist troops attacked United Nations forces and allies near the Ch’ongch’on River in North Korea, according to the Pentagon.
Minard’s unit was later ordered to withdraw. The farm boy from rural Kansas, then 19, was never seen or heard from again.
He was taken to a prison camp and starved, Bruce Stubbs, Minard’s great-nephew, told The Washington Post.
Now, after 65 years, Minard is finally coming home. His remains will arrive in Wichita on Wednesday.
Minard’s loved ones had always thought he would never be found, his great-nephew said.
But the family saw a sliver of hope in spring 2005, when an Army recovery team learned of a North Korea burial site that contained the remains of an American soldier. Scientists had obtained DNA samples from two of Minard’s sisters, according to the Pentagon. It would take another 11 years for his remains to be positively identified.
Whoever wins the next US Presidential election will apparently receive a fireworks show from the North Koreans:
North Korea may launch a intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) around the time U.S. citizens go to the polls to pick their new president, a local military source said Sunday.
According to the official source, the military is carefully checking developments taking place in the reclusive country and monitoring the movement of the Musudan missiles that are mounted on mobile launchers.
The U.S. presidential election takes place on Tuesday, with the Democratic and Republican candidates locked in a close race according to many surveys.
The Musudan or BM-35 missile is a IRBM with a reported range of some 3,500 kilometers, which is enough to allow it to target the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam. The island is home to many strategic assets that can support South Korean and U.S. forces in the event of a conflict breaking out on the Korean Peninsula. [Yonhap]
Who knows if this report out of North Korea is true or not, but it is North Korea so anything is possible:
More senior citizens in North Korea are being pressured to kill themselves because of intergenerational conflicts and the skyrocketing cost of medicine.
Elderly North Koreans who can no longer depend on the country’s welfare system must also cope with their children who are sometimes apathetic to their needs, Radio Free Asia reported Thursday.
A source in North Hamgyong Province told RFA on Tuesday it is a common sight at parks or train stations to see senior citizens gathered together, even as temperatures continue to drop in some of the coldest parts of the country.
“[Korean War] veterans are among their numbers; it is heartbreaking to see them there,” the source said.
The elderly, who are no longer employable, leave their homes during the day to avoid friction with their children. They shiver in the cold outdoors until the sun sets, the source said.
The financial burden they impose on their adult children who also struggle to make ends meet has led to family crises, where it is the children who are asking their aging parents to commit suicide, said another source in North Hamgyong Province. [UPI]
