Obviously the sanctions put on North Korea are not working when Dr. Andrei Lankov writes about the large economic expansion Kim Jong-un has helped to usher in during his first five years of ruling North Korea:
Next month it will be five years since the sudden death of Kim Jong-il led to the second dynastic transition in North Korean history. Kim Jong-un’s reign is approaching the five-year mark, the length of a presidential term in many modern democracies, so it is probably a good time to say what we think of the young North Korean leader.
To an extent, we can see the directions that Kim Jong-un wants to take and the trajectory that he wants to steer his country toward. I would dare to describe Kim Jong-un as a modest, perhaps hyper-cautious, but rather determined reformer in economic matters. Unfortunately, his foreign policy is difficult to appraise in anything but a critical fashion: it is quite likely that, in the long run, his diplomatic blunders will be his undoing.
But let’s start with the good news. In the last five years the North Korean economy has grown faster than any time since the early 1980s. Economic statistics are murky, speculative and controversial, but the majority of inside observers (diplomatic staff in Pyongyang) tend to estimate growth as being 3 percent to 4 percent per annum. This is much better than anything North Korea has seen since the 1980s, if not the 1970s. The results of such growth are felt through the whole of society, though the results are highly unevenly distributed. [Korea Times]
You can read the whole article at the link, but I would speculate that China has been playing the “North Korea card” for years considering they have done little to nothing to stop North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs:
– China could exercise a veto against any new U.N. sanctions on North Korea, ignore existing sanctions and even accept the communist neighbor as a nuclear state if the incoming administration of Donald Trump plays the “Taiwan card,” a U.S. expert said.
Trump sparked China’s anger by accepting a call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen earlier this month in breach of the decades-long diplomatic tradition that the U.S. has kept under its “One China” policy since severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with Beijing.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland and rails against any support for Taiwan’s independence or the notion that the island is not part of the country. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties, the U.S. has maintained friendly relations with Taiwan.
On Sunday, Trump went a step further, saying he doesn’t understand “why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.” The remark suggests Trump could use the Taiwan card in dealings with Beijing. [Yonhap]
The South Korean government has now responded to North Korea’s invasion drill:
South Korean officials were quick to condemn the movements.
“(We) view the drill from yesterday as a childish act to display that their system is undiminished, in response to our internal situation,” South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman Jeong Joon-hee said.
“Kim Jong Un has been continuously visiting its military units since November and it has been escalating tension. We strongly condemn it.” [CNN]
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un visits the Wonsan Shoes Factory in the country’s southeastern Kangwon Province in this photo published on Dec. 9, 2016, by daily newspaper Rodong Sinmun. Media report said Kim “dropped by” unannounced and was satisfied with the high production at the plant. (Yonhap)
The North Koreans may not be launching any provocations in the near term due to the South Korean political crisis, but they obviously don’t want people to forget about them either:
This capture from Pyongyang’s Korean Central Television shows North Korean soldiers attacking a replica of the South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in a recent drill. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observed a special warfare unit’s drill to destroy specific targets in South Korea, the North’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Sunday.
Kim watched the combat drill of the service personnel of the special operation battalion of KPA Unit 525, which included artillery shelling of and infiltration into key South Korean targets, such as the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae, the KCNA report said. [Yonhap]
It looks like the North Koreans are willing to give some time to the incoming Trump administration:
Choe Sun-hui
A top North Korean diplomat is reported to have told her American counterparts at a meeting in Switzerland that the North will refrain from provocations until the Donald J. Trump administration’s North Korea policy is further developed.
According to Radio Free Asia on Wednesday, Choe Son-hui, director general of the U.S. Affairs Department of the North’s Foreign Ministry and a top envoy to the six-party talks, said at a meeting with her American counterparts in Geneva last month that the North “would not take action that might close the door before seeing what emerges.”
Choe reportedly told the U.S. delegation that she hopes the Trump administration will review its policy toward the North while keeping her statement in mind. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
However, she caveated her statement by saying this:
Yet, according to meeting records obtained by RFA, Choe reportedly said that should the South and the United States conduct a joint military drill, the North’s response will have to be “very tough.”
Seoul and Washington are scheduled to hold their annual Key Resolve and Foal Eagle military exercises in February.
This screen capture from the North’s Korean Central TV on Dec. 7, 2016, shows blurs in its broadcast of a rally in downtown Seoul, apparently trying to hide tall buildings around the site. Pyongyang has been active in reporting weekend protests in South Korea demanding the president’s resignation, but analysts say it still didn’t want to show South Korea’s economic development to its people. (Yonhap)
