Chinese President XI JINPING and I spoke at length about the meeting with KIM JONG UN of North Korea. President XI told me he appreciates that the U.S. is working to solve the problem diplomatically rather than going with the ominous alternative. China continues to be helpful!
I will believe it when I see it in regards to the Kim regime’s willingness to dismantle their nuclear program:
Chung Eui-yong, head of the National Security Office, right, and Suh Hoon, director of the National Intelligence Service, arrive at Incheon International Airport from Washington on Sunday. [YONHAP]North Korean leader Kim Jong-un promised dismantlement of his country’s nuclear weapons program – not merely a freeze – when he met with South Korean envoys last week in Pyongyang, multiple government sources told the JoongAng Ilbo on Sunday.
“Kim expressed willingness for denuclearization, which includes not only a nuclear freeze but also dismantlement,” said one source familiar with the talks. “Now is the moment where we have to wait and see if the North will actually start the process of dismantling its nuclear program.” (……)
“The briefing to the White House included Kim’s promise that he was willing to commit to the denuclearization that the United States wants,” the source said.
The official recounted that Trump initially called for a meeting with Kim right away. But after prodding from the South Korean delegation, he was persuaded to meet with Kim in May after the South could confirm the North’s commitment to denuclearization during the inter-Korean summit in April. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Supposedly peace in our time is about to break out on the Korean peninsula with the announcement of a US-DPRK summit, but you would not know that if you only read the North Korean media:
Even after a historic announcement that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for the first time as a sitting president, Pyongyang continued Saturday to denounce the U.S. for its sanctions and vowed never to bow to the pressure.
In an opinion piece attributed to an individual writer, North Korea’s state newspaper Rodong Sinmun said Saturday that the regime won’t bow to “military power, sanctions or blockade.”
“We won’t let Americans determine good and evil according to their own ruler and trample upon justice and truth,” it argued.
It denounced the latest sanctions and secondary boycott by the U.S. and said they violated international law and infringed on sovereignty. It also called those disciplinary actions “very dangerous” and said they “might provoke a war.”
Neither the paper nor other North Korean media mentioned that South Korean envoys extended an invitation from Kim Jong-un to President Trump Thursday (local time) in Washington to meet to discuss the regime’s nuclear weapons programs and that Trump accepted it. [Yonhap]
This likely means that the state controlled media in North Korea will continue to take a hardline against the US until it is clear that the upcoming summit is going to lead to the concessions they want.
I think before anyone gets to critical or excited about yesterday’s announcement that President Trump plans to meet Kim Jong-un by May, first lets see if in fact it happens. A lot can happen over the next two months to where this does not happen. However, if it does happen what does each side hope to get out of this US-DPRK summit? Oh Young-jin from the Korea Times provides his viewpoint in the below article that President Trump is essentially being a showman trying to win a Nobel Peace Prize:
But what prompted Rocket Man to offer an invitation and the Dotard to take it?
There can be many circumstances in play for the summit, making but only one fundamental and undeniable fact ― a meeting of their mutual interests.
From Kim Jong-un’s perspective, a meeting with Trump would be of great benefit instantly for a change of air, so to speak. There is much speculation, some well thought out, that the U.S. might preemptively strike Pyongyang to stop it from making nuclear-armed intercontinental missiles that can hit the U.S. Then there are international sanctions that are putting a stranglehold on the impoverished nation.
Plus, if the North has not mastered its weapons of mass destruction, it is very close to it. Last November, it declared it had become a nuclear weapon state. Meeting Trump would buy time in the lead-up to May while the summit is being prepared and for months or so in the post-summit afterglow.
Even if the two reach major agreement ― renunciation of nuclear weapons or a return to the global nuclear regimes such as rejoining the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty ― the North would have an option of procrastinating.
That way, Kim would outlast Trump, who has three years left in office, with a lot of domestic challenges ahead. If Trump manages to get reelected, Kim might become mellower and not likely dare wage a potential nuclear war. All he would have to do is prepare for the next U.S. president.
For Trump, the summit would be an awesome ego trip ― showing the world and detractors that after all he is a great politician and statesman that they have failed to recognize.
Trump also could mock his detractors by saying his negotiating skills, as shown in his “The Art of the Deal,” had paid off in dealing with the North. He would set out to do what Bill Clinton, the husband of his nemesis Hillary Rodham Clinton, had failed to do ― go to Pyongyang to seal the denuclearization deal.
Perhaps a Nobel Peace Prize would cap his presidency through a “kind” of deal with the North. That would make him equal to Barack Obama, Trump’s Democratic predecessor who won the Nobel Prize at the start of his presidency. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but President Trump may be a showman, but I would be surprised if he agrees to anything that does not lead to the denuclearization of North Korea during his Presidency. I haven’t seen any indication that the Trump administration wants to mortgage this problem off to someone else like prior Presidents have done.
Congressman Ed Royce who has been heavily involved with legislation involving North Korea believes the sanctions are working and President Trump needs to break the cycle of using talks to extract concessions and buy time:
Republican Rep. Ed Royce of California, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement after the announcement, “Kim Jong-un’s desire to talk shows sanctions the administration has implemented are starting to work.”
Royce said that it is important to break the cycle of the North Korean regime using talks to extract concessions and buy time, adding, “The United States and South Korea must stand shoulder-to-shoulder in applying the sustained pressure needed to peacefully end this threat. And Beijing must do its part.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
If North Korea agrees to a Libya like denuclearization and ending of their ICBM program everyone will assuredly welcome that. With that said I would also be very surprised if North Korea agreed to full denuclearization. As I have stated before the Kim regime would likely like to get a freeze deal signed in return for reopening the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism tours with South Korea that would effectively end sanctions against them. The freeze deal would continue the cycle of the Kim regime getting major concessions for little to nothing in return since they can restart their nuclear and ICBM programs at a time of their choosing like they have done with past deals.
ROK Drop favorite Dr. Andrei Lankov believes the Kim regime will negotiate for more time just like Congressman Royce warns about:
One expert told NK News that Thursday’s news suggests that this policy has, for the time being, “worked.”
“His pressure policy has succeeded in stopping the North Korean missile program, and basically pushed them to the negotiating table,” said Andrei Lankov, director of the Korea Risk Group, which owns and operates NK News.
“However, this does not mean this policy will keep working,” he warned. “Trump is likely to push for greater concessions, and there are limits of how hard he can push.”
“Most likely the North Koreans are going to win time, but if the U.S. starts pushing too hard for denuclearization Trump won’t get what he wants and it might backfire.” [NK News]
So ultimately this summit may not lead to anything, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t helpful to Trump’s goal of denuclearization. In the future if military action is taken, a summit with Kim Jong-un can be pointed to as one more thing the Trump administration has done to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue.
Usually overseas outlets don't really scoop SK sources regarding domestic or NK news. But HK's South China Morning Post is claiming NK may send Kim Yo-jong to Washington: "Right now, she is NK's most powerful weapon." https://t.co/NBtxd1W1Po
The Russian port of Kholmsk sounds like an excellent candidate for secondary customs inspections under section 314 of the KIMS Act. https://t.co/9Zuc42wFFR
While North Korea is claiming they are willing to denuclearize they are on the other hand busy making more enriched plutonium for nuclear weapons:
38 North said the reactor at North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex shows signs of operation, including steam vapor plumes from the generator hall and nearby river ice melt.
38 North said the 5-megawatt reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear complex shows signs of operation, including steam vapor plumes from the generator hall and nearby river ice melt.
The monitoring website also spotted a new military tent camp established last month on the complex, more personnel and two large open-bed trucks.
The website, which is run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, examined commercial satellite images from Feb. 17 and Feb. 25.
38 North’s analysts noted that no cooling water discharges have been observed as would be expected under normal operations but said that was likely because the North Koreans had hidden them by extending a discharge pipe into the river.
“If the reactor is operating again, as the evidence suggests, it means North Korea has resumed production of plutonium presumably for its nuclear weapons program,” said the analysis by experts Frank Pabian, Joseph Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but I believe this news is all part of North Korea’s pressure campaign against the United States to get the Trump administration to agree to a “freeze deal”. As part of the deal the Kim regime can agree to suspend plutonium production in return for sanctions busting concessions.
What I will find the most interesting about the final cost sharing number that the ROK agrees to is whether or not they will exceed that number with the aid they plan to give to the Kim regime?:
Seoul and Washington will begin the first round of negotiations for the renewal of a cost-sharing agreement for American troops in Korea on Wednesday in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Monday.
Korea’s delegation to the three-day talks on the 10th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) will be headed by its top negotiator, Chang Won-sam, while Timothy Betts, acting deputy assistant secretary for plans, programs and operations at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, will lead the U.S. side. Both delegations will include defense officials.
The SMA, a multi-year cost-sharing deal under the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), establishes what Korea will contribute to the non-personnel costs associated with keeping U.S. troops in the country.
Since 1991, the two countries have conducted routine negotiations to decide what Korea’s financial contribution should be, and the current five-year agreement, the ninth of its kind, is set to expire on Dec. 31. (……..)
Negotiations for the latest burden-sharing deal, set to come into force in 2019, come at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that he may demand Korea to pay a greater contribution.
Seoul currently pays about half of the cost of the stationing of some 28,500 U.S. troops on the peninsula, and its contribution has consistently increased over the years and reached over 950 billion won ($878 million) currently compared to some 150 billion won in 1991. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but the original Sunshine Policy was bought and paid for initially with a huge $500 million bribe to the Kim regime. Follow on bribes described as humanitarian and economic aid continued under the Sunshine Policy. The aid would total to about a $1 billion a year. To put this into context the South Koreans were paying more money to the Kim regime annually then what they were contributing to the US-ROK alliance at the time. Will history repeat itself? We will likely find out this year.
"Lost his mind" is correct. If the U.S. were to launch an unprovoked preventive war against Son'gun Korea, the U.S. would be relegated to the status of a pariah state. https://t.co/FuxzIgCG5y
