There has been some changes in the North Korean military’s top leadership:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects construction of the Wonsan-Kalma shore tourist zone in an undated photo released on May 25. The bespectacled General Kim Su Gil (third from right) was newly promoted to head the army’s general political bureau. [Newsweek]Seoul is monitoring developments in the North’s military, it said Monday after reports Pyongyang replaced three of its top military officials ahead of a summit with the United States.
President Donald Trump is due to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on June 12 in Singapore with Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal high on the agenda and reports said that the reshuffle could be aimed at taming the military.
Late last month the North’s state media revealed that Kim Su Gil had been appointed as director of the military’s powerful General Political Bureau (GPB), replacing Kim Jong Gak.
According to Yonhap news agency, which cited intelligence sources, the chief of the general staff Ri Myong Su has also been replaced by his deputy, Ri Yong Gil.
And defence minister Pak Yong Sik has been succeeded by No Kwang Chol, previously first vice minister, it added.
The wholesale reshuffle would be unusual if confirmed, Seoul’s unification ministry said. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but analysts think the changes is to prevent any resistance to any nuclear deal that Kim Jong-un may agree to during his summit with President Trump. The Asahi Shimbun is reporting that all three of North Korea’s top military leadership positions have been changed in the past six months in preparation for any changes in the country’s nuclear policy.
I think Kim Jong-un just wants to make sure he has top military generals that he completely trusts in place before exiting the country to go to Singapore next week. If there was ever going to be a coup against the Kim regime, it would be when he and his top lieutenants are in Singapore for the summit.
The Butcher of the Cheonan recently met with President Trump and all indications are that the meeting went very well:
U.S. President Donald Trump has confirmed his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will take place in Singapore on June 12th.
His announcement came after he met with senior North Korean official Kim Yong-chol at the White House on Friday, local time.
He said the “big deal” will be on June 12th and that he believes the North Korean leader is committed to denuclearization.
Trump also said the issue of formally ending the Korean War will be on the table.
He explained he no longer wants to use the term “maximum pressure” on North Korea and looks forward to the day sanctions can be lifted.
Trump said there were “hundreds of new sanctions ready to go on” but they won’t be imposed “until such time as the talks break down.”
Kim Yong-chol, vice chairman of the North Korean ruling party’s central committee, visited the White House as Kim Jong-un’s special envoy and delivered Kim’s letter to Trump. [KBS World Radio]
You can read more at the link, but for those that don’t know Kim Yong-chol is the guy that Kim Jong-un trusts the most to do his dirty work. I actually listened to Trump’s press conference and wonder what was in Kim Jong-un’s letter that Kim Yong-chol delivered? I wonder because President Trump alluded to during the press conference how “the subject matter was very interesting” in the letter that he ended up having a two hour conversation with Kim Yong-chol about. You can see the press conference below:
The Koam-Tapchon marine railway bridge is opened to traffic on May 30, 2018, during a ceremony on its completion in this photo from the North’s Korean Central News Agency. The bridge, built in the country’s eastern coastal area, is aimed at developing the railway transport and fishing industry, the report said. (Yonhap)
Maybe this what the dispute was really about in regards to almost having the summit cancelled, not denuclearization, but agreeing on what burger joint to put in North Korea: 😉
A new CIA intelligence assessment concludes North Korea has no plans to relinquish its nuclear weapons program even though denuclearization is the centerpiece of the summit tentatively planned for next month, NBC News reported Tuesday.
But North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be willing to bring a U.S. burger outlet to Pyongyang as a show of good faith, the assessment suggests. [USA Today]
You can read more at the link, but if a US fast food joint it opened up next to Kim Jong-un’s palace that may end up shortening his life expectancy considering his already extreme weight.
As I have long said the long term goal of the Kim regime is to get USFK off of the peninsula and the ongoing nuclear negotiations appear to be trying to advance that effort:
Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, left, and Defense Minister Song Young-moo talk to each other while walking toward a Cheong Wa Dae room, Tuesday, to join in a Cabinet meeting chaired by President Moon Jae-in. / Yonhap
Joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States are likely to become a key topic at the denuclearization talks between the U.S. and North Korea.
The Rodong Sinmun, the North’s mouthpiece newspaper, published an op-ed article claiming the drills as a major source of security concern in Northeast Asia.
“It is an international practice for two negotiating sides to refrain from any military activities,” the article said.
“When the U.S. deploys strategic nuclear weapons during the joint military exercises with South Korea, all the ongoing dialogue momentum will return to the original state.” (…..)
The regime last week threatened to cancel a planned summit between Trump and Kim, expressing anger over the Max Thunder joint air force exercises.
As the drills ended their two-week run last week, the regime ramped up criticism of the Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercises between Seoul and Washington, annually held sometime around August.
“South Korea is making a fuss that it does not have plans to downsize UFG drills in August,” the propaganda newspaper said. It said the exercises are the root cause of breaking up peace and stability on the peninsula, urging their suspension in line with the ongoing dialogue momentum. [Korea Times]
You can read more more at the link, but cancelling Key Resolve, UFG, and other joint exercises will impact the readiness of USFK. These drills are especially important in a theater where many of the US troops rotate out in a year causing constant turnover. North Korea appears to be trying to get the ROK to advocate to the US to cancel the upcoming UFG exercise. If the ROK pushes hard to cancel the exercise this will likely cause tension within the US-ROK alliance which is what the Kim regime wants.
The Butcher of the Cheonan is to visit New York and meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. It seems whenever Kim Jong-un is serious about getting something done this is the thug he sends:
Kim Yong-chol
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed Tuesday that North Korean vice chairman Kim Yong-chol is heading to New York as part of ongoing preparations for his talks with the communist country’s leader.
“We have put a great team together for our talks with North Korea. Meetings are currently taking place concerning Summit, and more. Kim Young Chol, the Vice Chairman of North Korea, heading now to New York,” Trump said in a message posted on Twitter.
Calling the official’s visit to the U.S. a “solid response to my letter,” Trump said “thank you.”
Kim Yong-chol arrived in Beijing earlier in the day en route to the United States, with sources saying he is expected to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to get prepared for the high-stakes talks between Trump and Kim Jong-un. [Yonhap]
ROK Heads may remember that when Kim Yong-chol visited South Korea protesters tried to block his entry at the DMZ, but were foiled by ROK authorities. Human Rights group should go and protest against this guy in New York.
I would think that North Korea would be jubilant if a deal was agreed to with President Trump that leaves them with a Pakistan like nuclear arsenal:
So are there any models of “rogue” regimes with nuclear programs that might appeal to North Korea? The answer is yes. But, unfortunately, it’s a state that kept its nuclear deterrent intact: Pakistan. If Pyongyang is weighing up two possible futures—Libya vs. Pakistan—it’s not much of a choice.
Pakistan began to seriously pursue nuclear weapons in the 1970s, motivated by a desire to deter its more powerful rival India, as well as match India’s nuclear capability. The Pakistani politician Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who later became prime minister, claimed, “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves—even go hungry—but we will get one of our own.” In 1998, on a clear and bright day in the Chagai district, Pakistan carried out a series of nuclear tests. Pakistan’s chief scientific officer said “All praise be to Allah” and pushed the button, causing the mountain to shake in a vast explosion.
In 2016, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientistsestimated that Pakistan had 130 to 140 warheads and predicted that it would nearly double its arsenal by 2025. Islamabad could deliver nuclear weapons by medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, F-16 fighters, and tactical systems for short-range use on the battlefield. [The Atlantic]
You can read more at the link, but President Trump has said that he wants North Korea to follow the South Korea model of using nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. So the Pakistan model is likely off the table. However, if the Pakistan model is being considered, from the US perspective leaving North Korea with a short range nuclear arsenal is in the US’s interest since these missiles cannot target the US mainland, Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam.
However, the Pakistan model would not solve the issue of proliferation. Strict inspections would be needed to ensure nuclear technology is not being proliferated. What kind of inspections will the Kim regime agree to? The other major issue with the Pakistan model is would the North Koreans agree to give up medium range missiles that could target Japan? I just don’t see the President Trump agreeing to any deal that will allow the North Koreans to keep nuclear weapons to target Japan with, not only because they are a US ally, but because of the multiple US military bases in Japan.
The final issue I foresee is trying to get a Pakistan model deal passed through the Senate as a binding treaty. I don’t think President Trump could get enough support of such a deal in the Senate especially in a Congressional election year.
I wonder how much effort the Moon administration is putting into stopping these phone calls from Kim regime operatives to North Korean defectors?:
As North Korea makes increasingly aggressive calls for the return of a group of restaurant workers in China who defected en masse to South Korea in 2016, it has come to light that the regime is also making efforts to persuade other defectors in South Korea to return to the North.
“Anti-espionage agents from the provincial Ministry of State Security offices are calling up defectors in South Korea in an effort to get them to return to the country,” said a Ryanggang Province-based source to Daily NK on May 23.
“The agents tell the defectors point-blank that they will be met by agents in China and even give them telephone numbers to call once the defectors arrive in China. They are trying to bring them back to the country.”
A “Lieutenant Colonel Choe” of the Ryanggang Province Ministry of State Security (MSS) Anti-Espionage Unit is calling defectors living in South Korea on a frequent basis, according to the source. The agent tells defectors that “they will not be asked about their past history and will be guaranteed the same position they had when they left the country.” He also tells them that they should “[…] relax and return home. The motherland will always accept you if you decide to come back.”
The Ryanggang Province source provided details about how MSS agents are conducting calls with the defectors in South Korea. When a defector reaches out to brokers in North Korea to send money back to their family, sometimes these brokers are arrested by the MSS.
The MSS becomes aware of defectors the brokers have had contact with during the interrogation process and collects information such as their phone numbers. The MSS agents then directly contact the defectors to threaten or entice them to return to North Korea. A defector who was contacted by MSS agents recalled that, “[The agents] were really persistent in sending text messages and making phone calls.” [The Daily NK]
