Tag: North Korea

As I have been saying the suspension of joint exercises with South Korea is something that is easily reversible and can be used as negotiating leverage against the Kim regime:

President Donald Trump will resume military exercises with South Korea if the North stops negotiating in good faith over its nuclear weapons program, the top U.S. diplomat said Wednesday.

The tempered expectations were markedly different from the optimistic tone set by Trump in a series of tweets earlier in the day.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but I think we will know whether North Korea is negotiating in good faith by the Key Resolve exercise timeframe early next year.  If North Korea is not making any irreversible progress towards denuclearization I would expect this exercise would be executed as scheduled.

Holy crap. https://t.co/XpxaELVerJ

— Victor Cha (@VictorDCha) June 12, 2018

Over at One Free Korea he has a posting up that analyzes the recent joint statement between President Trump and Kim Jong-un:

Yesterday, I said the best we could hope for from the Trump-Kim summit would be “a vague agreement that North Korea will denuclearize, without Trump making any concessions for such a nebulous promise.” We have that vague agreement (full text here). It is so vague, in fact, that it’s hard to even say what concessions were given, implied, or will be given in the coming months.

Historically, vague agreements are the agreements Pyongyang loves. One the one hand, it will put an implausibly narrow interpretation on its own concessions: “What you do mean this includes uranium?,” or, “We agreed to stop missile tests, not satellite launch vehicle tests!” On the other hand, it will interpret our own concessions broadly. Here’s a useful map of its demandsto guide your understanding of what it will demand next. What’s clear is that Pyongyang will interpret the terms very differently from what Trump and his cabinet have said they would demand.  [One Free Korea]

As always I recommend reading OFK’s entire well thought out analysis at the link.

I fully agree that everyone should be skeptical of this joint statement.  However, just like the concessions the Kim regime has made so far, the concessions the Trump administration have made are all easily reversible.  Something else to keep in mind is that we don’t know what was privately agreed to during discussions with the regime.  I think we should wait for some time to pass to see how this plays out before we declare this summit just more failed diplomacy between the US and North Korea.  If the Trump administration drops sanctions for little to nothing in return, that should be the trigger to hit the panic button and declare that Groundhog Day has restarted once again with North Korea.

However, the way President Trump has criticized past administrations for getting little to nothing in return from North Korea in past agreements, I would be very surprised if he chooses this route.  I tend to think that the Trump administration is giving the Kim regime one last chance to rejoin the world community and if they don’t reach a comprehensive agreement sanctions will remain in place.  As long as the sanctions are in place ROK President Moon Jae-in will not be able to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast.

This causes me to think that current negotiations are about what irreversible actions the Kim regime must execute in return for dropping of sanctions.  If the North Koreans drag out negotiations like they historically have done, the Trump administration can easily turn back on the Key Resolve joint exercise scheduled each spring and implement more sanctions to pressure the regime to get a deal done.  If the Kim regime begins another provocation cycle in response the Trump administration can say they have tried everything to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue and military action may become a more viable option.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that and diplomacy between the US and North Korea works for once, but history does indicate we should all remain skeptical until we actually see it happen.

Keep in mind that the destruction of a missile engine test site is something easily reversible by North Korea and not a true example of something that proves they are committed to eliminating their ICBM program:

If Pyongyang destroys a “major missile engine testing site,” as U.S. President Donald Trump said it would on Tuesday after his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the move could indicate the young leader’s willingness to denuclearize.But as with the dismantlement of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site last month, just how far the regime will go in closing down the area – and whether it will have any effect on its nuclear capabilities – remains unknown.

Trump told international reporters in Singapore on Tuesday after signing a joint statement with Kim that the North Korean leader told him he was going to destroy a major missile engine testing site.

The location of the site was not given, and Trump did not go into the details of the test site’s destruction.

The agreement wasn’t included in their statement, said Trump, because he and Kim “agreed to that” after the document was signed.

“That’s a big thing, for the missiles that they were testing, the site is going to be destroyed very soon,” Trump said. “I said, ‘Do me a favor. You’ve got this missile engine testing site. We know where it is because of the heat.’” When Trump asked Kim whether he could close the site, the North Korean leader reportedly said he would.

“I think he’ll do it. I really believe that,” Trump said. “They have a very powerful engine testing site that, again, we’re able to see because of the heat that it emits.”

He added, “Honestly, I think he’s going to do these things. I may be wrong. I mean, I may stand before you in six months and say, ‘Hey, I was wrong.’ I don’t know that I’ll ever admit that but I’ll find some kind of an excuse.”

North Korean state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) made no mention of the engine test site on Wednesday in its coverage of the summit, but said that Kim said his country would take “additional good-will measures” if Washington takes “genuine measures” to build trust in order to improve the North-U.S. relationship.

Both leaders shared thoughts on the process of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula in a “step-by-step” manner, according to the KCNA.

South Korean analysts believe Trump was referring to the engine testing site in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, along the west coast of the country. In the past, North Korea test-fired several ballistic missiles into the East Sea from the site.

North Korean media reported last year that a successful engine test was carried out at the site on March 18. Kim was so pleased, he was pictured giving a piggyback ride to an engineer.

The Cholsan test site is believed to be where North Korea developed its engine for the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile, which can target the U.S. mainland.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

What is interesting about this is that before the summit North Korea was reported to already have destroyed an engine test stand used for their ICBM development back on May 19th.  I am not sure if this is the same test stand that President Trump is referring to.  However, I doubt the Kim regime would just destroy this test stand without some prior discussions with the US about this.  You can view satellite pictures of the test stand over at 38 North.

A fan of President Trump’s decision to stop joint wargames against North Korea is Guam Governor Eddie Calvo:

Gov. Eddie Calvo met with President Donald Trump as the president made a pit stop at Andersen Air Force Base early Wednesday morning.

Trump was on his return trip from Singapore after a historic summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. (……)

“The war games are very expensive. We pay for a big majority of them. We fly in bombers from Guam,” Trump said after meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jung Un.

“I said — when I first started, I said, ‘Where do the bombers come from?’  ‘Guam.  Nearby.’ I said, ‘Oh, great, nearby.  Where’s nearby?’  ‘Six and a half hours.’ Six and a half hours — that’s a long time for these big massive planes to be flying to South Korea to practice and then drop bombs all over the place, and then go back to Guam. I know a lot about airplanes; it’s very expensive. And I didn’t like it.”

Calvo said he supports Trump’s decision to halt bomber flights from Andersen. Calvo said the exercises were “threatening,” and put Guam in North Korea’s crosshairs.  [Guam PDN]

You can read more at the link, but Governor Calvo as was reported to have told Trump that the people of Guam breathed a “big sigh of relief” after the summit since the island has been repeatedly threatened over the years by North Korea for missile attacks.

Solid comments by all interviewed authorities. I strongly recommend reading this discussion prior to the upcoming Singapore summit. https://t.co/O7F9P734KO

— tomcoyner (@tomcoyner) June 10, 2018

As usual Professor B.R. Myers has correctly predicted how the Korean left led by the Moon administration will push for a confederation with North Korea by touting the economic benefits:

Image of B.R. Myers from the Korea Herald.

A few months ago I predicted the ruling Minjoo Party would begin agitating for a league or confederation before the June 13 elections. I said that in doing so it would focus on the economic benefits.

Last week I received the various parties’ campaign materials in a big envelope. (As a permanent resident I am eligible to vote in local elections.) Sure enough, the Minjoo pamphlet has a slogan in big brushstroke font at the top of one page: “Peace Equals Economy!” Underneath, next to a photo of President Moon, is the somewhat coded but still urgent pledge to “construct a permanent peace system this year.”

Of course his base knows what this means. To quote an approving headline in the nationalist-left Hankyoreh on April 29:

The plan for unification via a North-South league is hidden in the Panmunjom Declaration.

Indeed it is, and in plain sight. But the Hankyoreh was quick to drop this talk, being mindful of the need to get the Americans to Singapore in as blissful a state of ignorance as possible. This is why street demonstrations for the “peace system” have so far been rather small and sedate affairs (though with a higher proportion of young participants than conservative rallies).  [B.R. Myers]

I highly recommend reading the whole article at the link.

ROK Heads may remember that the Moon administration has been attempting to take the word “free” out of the ROK constitution in order to allow the Kim regime to maintain power in North Korea after a confederation.

Besides constitutional reform, to make this confederation possible, President Moon and Kim Jong-un need President Trump to drop sanctions.  This would allow the Moon administration to invest billions into North Korea, re-open the near-slave labor Kaesong Industrial Complex, and open the tourism projects on North Korea’s east coast.  They would prefer President Trump to do this without the Kim regime having to give up their nuclear weapons.  Trump pushing the Kim regime to completely give up their nuclear weapons before sanctions are dropped makes Moon’s plans for a confederation much more difficult.  This is why Moon has been so complementary to President Trump and thrown around accolades such as “Nobel Peace Prize” in effort to win him over to drop sanctions.

Eventually, as B.R. Myers writes, both the Moon administration and the Kim regime hope this confederation will lead to their ultimate goal of the withdrawal of USFK.  As I have written about before, I don’t expect the Moon administration to directly call for this because it will mobilize the conservative ROK political opposition against him.  Instead he will use the cost sharing negotiations and anti-US groups to make life difficult for USFK to where the Trump administration decides on its own to withdraw USFK.

Once again I recommend reading B.R. Myers entire article at this link.

Members of a South Korean civic group stage a rally in front of the Capella Hotel in Singapore on June 12, 2018, demanding the repatriation of South Koreans kidnapped by North Korea as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un holds a summit meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the hotel. (Yonhap)

Forget all the talk about denuclearization on the Korean peninsula following the Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore, the biggest news for me is President Trump announcing the stopping of joint military exercises:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will stop “provocative and expensive” war games with South Korea in a surprise reference to the joint military exercises Pyongyang has criticized as a rehearsal of invasion.

Trump made the remarks during a press conference that followed his historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the Singaporean resort island of Sentosa.

“War games are very expensive,” he said, raising the issue of their cost.

“I think it is very provocative … You have a country that is right next door,” he added, referring to the communist state.   [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but President Moon has previously said that UFG would be scaled down and now President Trump has used to word stopped.  I guess we will see what this all means, but for now it is pretty clear that the August UFG exercise will not happen the way it is normally executed.

If the joint exercises are stopped this is a big win for President Moon.  His left wing base does not support the exercises while the political opposition conservative party does.  So Moon’s base gets what it wants, for now and Moon can tell his political opposition that he was not the one that cancelled the joint exercises, President Trump did.

These joint exercise are important for USFK due to the high change over in personnel on the peninsula which these exercises help to keep personnel trained with their ROK military counterparts.  However, just like everything that North Korea has committed to cancelling joint exercises are easily reversible from the US perspective.  I don’t see President Trump committing to something non-reversible like troop withdrawals from the peninsula until the Kim regime does something non-reversible such as removing nuclear material to a third country for disposal.

It should continue to be an interesting year to see how this all plays out.

Below is the statement that President Trump and Kim Jong-un signed during their summit in Singapore with my comments below each point:

Here is the first part of the statement:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

There has been a lot of talk about the US opening an embassy in North Korea.  This line seems to open the door to this possibility if North Korea behaves of course.  An opening of an embassy would symbolize the normalizing of relations between the DPRK and the US which is why I don’t think this will be something happening in the near term.  Once the DPRK makes irreversible decisions to end their nuclear program than I think this will become a possibility.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join the efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

This is something that President Moon Jae-in and the Kim regime has been actively pushing for.  Professor B.R. Myers has written extensively on this, but Moon wants to eventually establish a North-South Confederation.  This is why him and the Korean left have been attempting to amend the ROK constitution to make this happen.  One of the changes they have proposed was changing this passage in the ROK constitution:

“The Republic of Korea shall seek national unification, and shall formulate and carry out a peaceful unification policy based on the free and democratic basic order.”

In the proposed revision the word “free” would be removed which would open the door to the Kim regime maintaining power in North Korea after confederation with their own form of democracy.  President Moon and his left wing supporters will never admit to this, but that is the only rational reason why they would want this change in the ROK constitution.

Should this matter to President Trump?  It seems that from the US perspective if the DPRK ends its nuclear and ICBM programs then it should be left up to the ROK to decide their own future.  If the ROK public wants a confederation that sees billions of their taxpayer dollars going up North to support the Kim regime that will continue to maintain a massive conventional military force to threaten them with, then so be it.  Remember the Kim regime is only going to agree to a confederation on their terms.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panumunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclerarization of the Korean Peninsula.

Notice that the wording of this statement is “work toward” which makes no demands of the Kim regime to actually denuclearize.  So far the North Koreans have only taken denuclearization actions that are easily reversible.  I think that in response the US will only make concessions that are easily reversible.  I don’t think the US will drop sanctions until concrete actions are taken by the Kim regime to eliminate their nuclear weapons such as shipping nuclear material to a third country.  The DPRK and the ROK have long wanted a “freeze deal” that would allow the North Koreans to keep their nukes in return for dropping sanctions.  I have so far seen no indication of an agreement of a “freeze deal” from this summit.    If the US drops sanctions against North Korea for little to nothing in return than this will be a huge win for Kim Jong-un.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

It will be interesting to see how this is executed because in the past the US stopped the recovery work because of the ridiculous fees that North Korea demanded.  The North Koreans know exactly where the bulk of the remains are because the US military buried a large number of casualties in marked cemeteries before evacuating North Korea after the Chinese intervened in the war.

To be able to repatriate these remains to their family members the North Koreans have been demanding inflated prices which just shows how low the Kim regime is willing to go to make money.  The work to recover the remains ended in 2005 with 220 remains recovered.

As recently as 2014 the Kim regime was trying to get the US to restart recovery of the remains threatening to let them get washed away.  It looks like the Kim regime has now convinced the Trump administration to restart the remains recovery, but at what cost?

Final Analysis

My analysis on this is that the Trump administration would love to have North Korea completely denuclearize and give up their ICBMs in exchange for dropping of sanctions and being reintegrated into the world community.  However, I am confident based on the people that President Trump has around him, that he is not naive to the past history of the Kim regime.

I think this is the one final chance for the Kim regime to make peace with the United States and if they try to play their old games again, that will be the excuse the President needs to take military action against them.  This kind of reminds me of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks during the Clinton administration.  Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader, Yasser Arafat was given the opportunity to make peace with the Israelis during the 2000 Camp David Summit and did not do it which led to the Second Intifada.  This gave the Israelis the excuse they needed to crush the Palestinians which they did.

Does anyone see any similarities between these two photographs? 

Kim Jong-un currently has the opportunity to seek peace with the United States just like Arafat did with the Israelis.  Arafat could not bring himself to make peace with the Israelis despite the great deal that was offered to him that gave the Palestinians nearly everything they wanted.  Arafat it was argued did not agree to the deal because it jeopardized his leadership status by being responsible for building a state along side Israel instead of a deadly, authoritarian opposition which is all he knew how to do.

Will Kim Jong-un accept denuclearization in return for building his state after the dropping of sanctions?  Time will tell, but like the Israelis I would not be surprised if President Trump isn’t ready to take military action if the North Koreans return to a provocation cycle again.  Just like with the Palestinians, I think things will end badly for the Kim regime if that is the course of action they choose to take.

Final Note: By the way did anyone else feel like Kim Jong-un looked like he was a contestant on the Celebrity Apprentice show during this summit?  If they would have let Dennis Rodman into the summit it truly would have a been a Celebrity Apprentice episode.