Tag: North Korea

I think this is a sign of just how off balance President Trump has the Kim regime right now, that Kim Jong-un had to have an emergency summit with Moon Jae-in just to figure out how to move forward:

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in met for the second time in a month on Saturday, holding a surprise summit at a border truce village to discuss Kim’s potential meeting with President Donald Trump, Moon’s office said.

Kim and Moon met hours after South Korea expressed relief over revived talks for a summit between Trump and Kim following a whirlwind 24 hours that saw Trump cancel the highly anticipated meeting before saying it’s potentially back on.

Moon, who brokered the summit between Washington and Pyongyang, likely used Saturday’s meeting to confirm Kim’s willingness to enter nuclear negotiations with Trump and clarify what steps Kim has in mind in the process of denuclearization, said Hong Min, a senior analyst at Seoul’s Korea Institute for National Unification.  [Associated Press]

I can only imagine what they talked about, but I would not be surprised if the conversation included the fact that the usual playbook is not working on President Trump.  The past strategy of the North Koreans giving little to nothing in return for massive aid and lifting of sanctions is clearly not going to happen this time.  The Trump administration has made it pretty clear that real denuclearization is what will happen if a deal is to be done.

By the way does anyone want to provide their own caption of the below picture?:

Former North Korean diplomat Thae Yong-ho who defected to South Korea in 2016 describes in his book what it was like escorting Kim Jong-un’s brother, Kim Jong-chul around London to attend an Eric Clapton concert:

Jong-chul stayed in London for 61 hours, during which he saw Clapton’s concert twice. He also went shopping at an HMV record store and Selfridges department store, both in London, and drove 100 kilometers to buy a “Made in U.S.” guitar he had been eagerly looking for. He paid 2,400 pounds for it.

His plan to see the concert could have been canceled when his visit was leaked to the media. A throng of reporters gathered at the concert venue to catch a glimpse of the “unfortunate prince,” an often-used term to explain his fate of yielding the North’s throne to his younger brother.

But he pushed ahead and ended up seeing the concert under British police protection. He bought many souvenirs after the concert ― cups, key chains, T-shirts and albums.

Jong-chul looked quite moved when he bought the American guitar, according to Thae. He cuddled it for a while and gave an impromptu performance for 40 minutes at the shop. People extolled his play. The guitar was at his side all the way back to London.

“I’ve sent a cable to many embassies to find this guitar, but they failed. Why couldn’t they be able to find this?” he asked himself.

Thae said Jong-chul was married and had children. He bought children’s clothes at Selfridges.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but Kim Jong-chul has been described as being effeminate in the past, but Thae said he saw no evidence of that his time with him in London. Judging from the above picture Jong-chul does not have the same authoritarian appearance Jong-un.  Plus the behavior described by Thae makes Jong-chul appear a bit childish.  This tends to further validate why he was passed over for the North Korean leadership.

Never mind that SKorea's head of national security and intelligence agency chief announced from the White House that KJU was going to denuke. Never mind that Moon Jae-in insisted NKorea wants "complete" denuclearization. Everything is John Bolton's fault. https://t.co/3NVIoNu8Yo

— John Lee (The Korean Foreigner) (@koreanforeigner) May 22, 2018

A protester holds a banner that says, “Trump jeopardizes peace on the Korean Peninsula,” during a rally in front of the U.S. Embassy in Seoul on May 25, 2018, to criticize the U.S. government and call for a summit with North Korea as scheduled. On May 24, U.S. President Donald Trump called off his meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un scheduled for June 12, citing the North’s “tremendous anger and open hostility.” (Yonhap)

As I said yesterday, the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit by President Trump was nothing more than part of the ongoing negotiations.  Well it looks like the Kim regime got the message from the Trump administration that the usual games they played during past negotiations will not be tolerated:

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump cancelling the June 12 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to discuss the regime’s denuclearization, it appears a meeting could take place not too far in the future, as both sides seem willing to engage in dialogue.

North Korea, unlike its usual hard-line stance, expressed regret over the cancellation and said it is open to talks at anytime, so the ball is again in the U.S.’s court.

After Trump’s announcement late Thursday, North Korea stated that it had a “willingness to resolve issues through dialogue, whenever and through whatever means.” The statement was made by North Korea’s First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan, reported by the Korean Central News Agency the following morning.  [Korea Times]

Who can remember a time when the Kim regime has been this conciliatory for talks?  The only time that comes to mind was during the Banco Delta Asia incident where they were desperate to get the millions of dollars frozen by the US Treasury Department back.  The Kim regime played nice until they got what they wanted and then eventually returned to conducting provocations.

It is pretty clear the Trump administration is trying to change this dynamic and the President today is signaling that the summit can still happen if North Korea changes its tone:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday his planned meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could still take place June 12, after cancelling the summit a day earlier.

“We’re going to see what happens. We’re talking to them right now. It could even be the 12th,” Trump told reporters before departing the White House.  (….)

“Very good news to receive the warm and productive statement from North Korea,” he wrote. “We will soon see where it will lead, hopefully to long and enduring prosperity and peace. Only time (and talent) will tell!”  [Yonhap]

I guess we will see what happens, but it is good to see the Kim regime for once on the defensive when it comes to negotiations.

Trump administration official on North Korea: “It doesn’t look like they want to denuclearize at all.”

Entire North Korea expert community: “No shit, Sherlock.” https://t.co/t1kKpkXx8p pic.twitter.com/dw6wEGfVi2

— Anna Fifield (@annafifield) May 20, 2018

Here is the play-by-play of the Punggye-ri dog and pony show:

North Korea destroyed its only known nuclear test site with a series of explosions over several hours on Thursday, taking an initial step toward denuclearization, according to South Korean journalists visiting the area.

The North dynamited the North Portal, also referred to as Tunnel No. 2, at Punggye-ri, a northeastern remote area, at around 11 a.m., they said in a brief pool report delivered by phone.

Two other tunnels were destroyed at 2:17 p.m., followed by the explosion of barracks, observation towers and other facilities on the ground.

The blasts ended at 4:17 p.m., the journalists said without clarifying whether Tunnel No. 1, or the East Portal, was removed as well. Among the four tunnels in the zone, the East Portal was evidently abandoned earlier, according to 38 North, a U.S.-based website.

Plumes of smoke soon covered the mountain.

Reporters and television crews from the United States, China, Russia and Britain were also invited to witness the ceremony.

They filmed the spectacle, but footage is expected to be available only after they return to Wonsan, the North’s eastern coastal city, presumably on Friday morning.  [Yonhap]

As I have long said the closure of the nuclear test site is largely meaningless because if they decide they need to conduct more tests they can just dig another shaft at a time of their choosing.

President Trump has completely flipped the script on the Kim regime.  The North Koreans are used to being the ones canceling talks and making the other parties make concessions to get them to come back:

President Donald Trump called off his summit with Kim Jong-un on Thursday after North Korea hurled insults at Vice President Mike Pence.

Trump said it would be ‘inappropriate’ to hold talks at this time after the Kim regime again tested the limits of his patience.

‘You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never be used,’ he said in a letter to Kim that the White House distributed.

North Korea‘s vice foreign minister had slammed Pence for his ‘unbridled and impudent remarks that North Korea might end like Libya.’

Choe Son Hui also said the future of the summit between Pyongyang and Washington is ‘entirely’ up to the United States, as she condemned an interview Pence gave to Fox News.

Trump said in his letter to Kim that as a result of the ‘tremendous anger and open hostility’ demonstrated by North Korea in the latest back and forth, he was pulling out of the June 12 meeting to discuss Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

‘I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long-planned meeting,’ Trump said hours after North Korea publicly destroyed much of its Punggye-ri nuclear test site. ‘Therefore, please let this letter serve to represent that the Singapore summit, for the good of both parties, but to the detriment of the world, will not take place.’

The U.S. president went on to say that he hopes to meet Kim one day and that the good dialogue that was building up between the two nations prior to the recent provocations remains promising.

Trump’s letter to Kim followed a string of threats from the North to call off the summit that had been brokered to discuss a commitment to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

The president told DailyMail.com on Wednesday that he’d know whether he was moving forward with the Singapore summit ‘next week.’ That was before North Korea’s latest volley, which included the assault on Pence.

‘We will neither beg the U.S. for dialogue nor take the trouble to persuade them if they do not want to sit together with us,’ said Choe Son Hui, according to a report by North Korea’s central news agency on Thursday.

She added: ‘I cannot suppress my surprise at such ignorant and stupid remarks gushing out from the mouth of the US vice-president.  [Daily Mail]

You can read more at the link, but here is the letter that President Trump sent to Kim Jong-un:

I look at this as not being a cancellation of the talks, but instead part of the ongoing negotiations.  The Trump administration has put North Korea in its place by reminding them who they are and who they are dealing with; thus the description in the difference in nuclear capabilities in the letter.  I also think the message being sent is that the United States will not be pushed around by the North Koreans and they should be respectful towards the Trump administration and thankful for the opportunity to meet with the US President.  This is especially true considering President Trump has made very respectful remarks towards Kim Jong-un and even the cancellation letter is extremely polite towards Kim Jong-un.

We are about to see how serious the Kim regime is about holding these talks and reaching a denuclearization deal because the ball is now officially in their court.  President Trump’s letter leaves it very open for a future meeting if the Kim regime changes its tone.  If they apologize for the remarks towards Vice President Pence that is a signal that they really do want a deal.  However, if they begin another launch cycle or execute a provocation of some kind then that is a sign they were never serious about these talks in the first place.

However, it was good to see that for once the United States got something out of North Korea, the release  of the three American detainees for little to nothing in return.  It is usually the other way around where the US and South Korea makes concessions to North Korea for little to nothing in return.  Once again President Trump has flipped the script on the Kim regime.  It will be interesting to see how the North Koreans respond.

It looks like the North Koreans are satisfied that they made their point to South Korea about how unhappy they are about the Ningpo 13 and have folded and allowed South Korean reporters to cover the upcoming dog and pony show at Punggye-ri:

A group of eight South Korean journalists flew into North Korea on Wednesday afternoon after Pyongyang, at the last minute, accepted Seoul’s list of reporters to cover the dismantling of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site.

Eight journalists from two media outlets departed at around 12:30 p.m. from Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, Gyeonggi, on a South Korean government plane and flew directly to Kalma Airport in North Korea’s eastern port city of Wonsan.

After arriving in Wonsan, they joined journalists from four other countries – China, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – to board a special train to head to the site of the demolition of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site to take place on Thursday or Friday.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

Excellent piece our old friend, now based in Japan but with still Korea responsibilities, Alastair!

North Korea's Secret Army: How Operatives Abroad Aid the Regime
By… https://t.co/JvejHJl4rc

— tomcoyner (@tomcoyner) May 21, 2018