Tag: North Korea

Tufts University Professors Writes that Peace Treaty Would Likely Lead to End of the US-ROK Alliance

| November 9, 2018

Professor Sung-Yoon Lee at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University has an article published in the National Interest that hits many of the same theme I have shared on this site about any peace treaty signed with the DPRK:

Almost immediately in the wake of the signing of an end-of-war declaration, the UN Command, shorn of its mission to defend the peace in the peninsula, would be dismantled. Moreover, OPCON transfer, now envisioned to be completed by 2020, would defang and dismantle the Combined Forces Command. Why? Despite protestations to the contrary, no U.S. commander would submit his command over U.S. forces-the preeminent military in the world-to a foreign commander in the actual prosecution of war.
The  joint communique of the recently concluded 50th U.S.-ROK Security Consultative Meeting (SMC) states that the two sides, following OPCON transfer, shall “maintain the current CFC structure” and that the post-OPCON transfer CFC shall “have an ROK four-star general as the Commander and a U.S. four-star general as the Deputy Commander” (Paragraph 9). It’s a proposition that sounds as credible as Richard Nixon’s promise to Park Chung-hee that no U.S. troops will be withdrawn just a year before the withdrawal of an entire division of twenty thousand soldiers.
A peace treaty between the United States and the DPRK, a long-held goal by North Korea, would call into question rationale for maintaining U.S. troops in South Korea. If and when such a treaty comes into effect, then the question “Why are the troops there, in South Korea, when the U.S. and North Korea have a peace treaty?” would be raised repeatedly by politicians and the public in Seoul and Washington, not to mention Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow.
Once the U.S. forces leave South Korea, the bilateral alliance will be that only in name. Beyond the loss of credible U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK, the virtual abrogation of the alliance would leave some glaring holes in the ROK’s defense capabilities, for example: Surveillance-reconnaissance-signal intelligence capabilities, early warning and missile defense, counter-battery fire and sensitive military technology procurement abilities, just to name a few.  [The National Interest]
You can read the rest at the link.

US Secretary of State Postpones Denuclearization Talks with North Korean Official

| November 9, 2018

I have been suspecting that once the US mid-term elections were over that the White House would begin taking a harder line on North Korea’s denuclearization.  This meeting cancelation could be the first sign of it:

High-level talks between the U.S. and North Korea set for this week in New York have been postponed.

The U.S. State Department said Wednesday the meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the vice chairman of the North Korean ruling Workers’ Party Central Committee Kim Yong-chol on Thursday has been called off.

Without providing a reason, the department said the two sides will reconvene talks when their respective schedules permit, adding the U.S. remains focused on fulfilling the commitments agreed to by their leaders in June.  [KBS World Radio]

Cuban President Visits Kim Jong-un in North Korea

| November 7, 2018

It looks like Kim Jong-un is continuing his strategy of looking like a normal world leader by receiving presidents for state visits:

North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un has received Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel with “magnificent” welcoming events, North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Monday, with Kim repeatedly stressing “the strategic and comradely friendship with Cuba.”

Diaz-Canel’s visit to North Korea marked the first by a Cuban president since former President Fidel Castro’s 1986 visit, though Diaz-Canel has traveled to North Korea before, meeting Kim Jong-un as Cuban vice president back in 2015.

According to the KCNA, Kim Jong-un and his wife Ri Sol-ju greeted Diaz-Canel and his wife Lis Cuesta Peraza at Pyongyang International Airport on Sunday.

Following a 21-gun salute from the Korean People’s Army, Kim and Diaz-Canel reviewed the honor guards of the KPA. The two leaders also took part in a car parade through the streets of Pyongyang to arrive at the Paekhwawon State Guest House, where the Cuban delegation would stay.  [Korea Times]

Tweet of the Day: Faceplant

| November 6, 2018

Yellow Flags Fly Over the Korean DMZ

| November 6, 2018

At least it is not a white flag flying over South Korean guard posts (sorry I couldn’t resist 😉 ):

These photos provided by the defense ministry show yellow flags at guard posts on the South and North Korean sides of the border. (Yonhap)

South and North Korea raised yellow flags at 11 guard posts each along their heavily fortified border on Sunday in a first step toward dismantling the posts under a military agreement reached as part of September’s summit.

The two sides hoisted the 4-meter by 3-meter flag at each of the 22 guard posts as a mark to indicate that the posts are to be dismantled, according to defense ministry officials.

“This is aimed at enabling each side to observe the progress in dismantlement work so that it can be carried out in a transparent manner,” a ministry official said.

The two sides reached the agreement to pull back the guard posts in the Demilitarized Zone “on a trial basis” as part of the third inter-Korean summit held in September. It’s a key part of the efforts to turn the buffer zone into a “peace zone.”  [Yonhap]

Tweet of the Day: Scolded for Not Having A Nice Watch

| November 5, 2018

North Korea Demands that the US Drop Sanctions for Little to Nothing in Return

| November 5, 2018

I hope no one is surprised by this because the North Koreans have never really committed to giving up their nuclear weapons before or even after the dropping of sanctions:

North Korea has warned it could revive a state policy aimed at strengthening its nuclear arsenal if the United States does not lift economic sanctions against the country.

The statement released by the Foreign Ministry on Friday evening said North Korea could bring back its “pyongjin” policy of simultaneously advancing its nuclear force and economic development if the United States doesn’t change its stance. The North sopped short of threatening to abandon ongoing nuclear negotiations with Washington.

Still, it accused Washington of derailing commitments made by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump at their June summit in Singapore to work toward a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. It was the first time the North said it could potentially resume weapons tests and other development activities since Kim signaled a new state policy in April.  (………..)

“The U.S. thinks that its oft-repeated ‘sanctions and pressure’ leads to ‘denuclearization.’ We cannot help laughing at such a foolish idea,” it said. The ministry described the lifting of U.S.-led sanctions as corresponding action to the North’s “proactive and good-will measures,” apparently referring to its unilateral suspension of nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests and closure of a nuclear testing ground.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.

South Korea to Notify IOC that They Want to Jointly Host 2032 Olympics with North Korea

| November 3, 2018

Apartheid South Africa was banned from the Olympics for their human rights abuses, but North Korea may get the opportunity to host them with a far worse human rights record?  I would hope the IOC would laugh this proposal out of the building, but considering the IOC’s history of corruption enough white envelopes may make this a reality:

South Korea and North Korea agreed on Friday to inform the International Olympic Committee (IOC) formally of their intention to co-host the 2032 Summer Games.

The two sides reached that agreement during their sports talks in the North’s border town of Kaesong.

Following their first sports talks in four months, the Koreas issued a joint communique, detailing other areas of cooperation.

The Koreas said they will try to field a joint team at next year’s men’s handball world championships.

The Koreas also agreed to form unified teams at the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics and to work with the IOC and international federations of summer Olympic sports to make that happen.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but any bets on who will pay for all the new infrastructure, stadiums, hotels, etc. in North Korea to support hosting the Olympics?

Picture of the Day: Kim Jong-un Visits Samjiyon County

| November 2, 2018

NK leader's on-site inspection

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un tours a township construction site in Samjiyon County in northeastern North Korea in this combined photo carried by the Rodong Sinmun, the North’s ruling party organ, on Oct. 30, 2018. It marks his third visit to the site this year. (Yonhap)

President Moon’s Special Advisor Advocates for Dropping Sanctions Before North Korean Denuclearization

| November 2, 2018

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to any following the denuclearization negotiations that Moon Chung-in wants the US to drop sanctions for little or nothing in return from North Korea:

Moon Chung-in, a special presidential adviser for unification, diplomacy and national security affairs, speaks during an interview with The Korea Times at his office in Seoul last week. / Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

Washington remains largely skeptical of the North Korean leader’s intention to denuclearize.

Amid these circumstances, a special adviser to the President stated a paradigm shift may be necessary.

“The U.S. views North Korea in the frame of crime and punishment ―- this is its social construct of reality that North Korea cheats and lies,” Moon Chung-in, a special presidential adviser for unification, diplomacy and national security affairs, told The Korea Times in an interview at his office last week.

“But if it only looks at Pyongyang through this frame there is no way out. There needs to be a more pragmatic, flexible approach to North Korea.”

Stalled talks

Moon attributes the stall in denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S. to differences surrounding when to lift sanctions.

“Basically the stance of the U.S. is that sanctions will be lifted when North Korea achieves complete denuclearization, which North Korea cannot accept,” he said.

He pointed out that while Pyongyang initially called only for a declaration ending the war, it is now stating this is not enough because Kim offered to permanently dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility in his third summit with Moon held in Pyongyang. The U.S., meanwhile, wants North Korea to disclose its nuclear arsenal and submit to inspections, the adviser said.

However, Pyongyang would be unwilling to report its entire nuclear inventory for two reasons, he said.

“First, why would North Korea hand over a list of its inventory while relations with the U.S. are still hostile? This would leave the regime defenseless,” Moon said.

The other reason is based on the inherent nature of declaring inventory.

“The U.S. states that North Korea has 60 to 65 nuclear warheads, but if it has less than this amount, the U.S. will never believe it even if Pyongyang makes a declaration. Washington will continue to call for additional reports and the process will fall through. This will leave North Korea in a worse situation than before making the report.”

This is why Pyongyang is calling for a trust relationship to be built first, he said.

“The North is seeking a non-aggression relationship through the declaration ending the war, and for the U.S. to take corresponding measures for the shutting down of the Yongbyon facility in a verifiable way ―- such as lifting sanctions,” he said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but Moon Chung-in is the ROK administration’s trial balloon specialist to judge American reaction to proposed ideas.  In the past year Moon Chung-in has stated his opposition to the THAAD battery in South Korea and has hinted at ending the US-ROK alliance.  He has even said the US US should recognize North Korea as a nuclear power which is a curious position since he says North Korea is planning to supposedly denuclearize.