Tag: North Korea

A “good enough deal” is just code for “pretend denuclearization”:

South Korea’s proposal for a “good enough deal” with North Korea to advance the now-stalled denuclearization talks between Pyongyang and Washington is apparently gaining ground among U.S. officials and experts.

Cheong Wa Dae recently proposed a “good enough deal” as a possible alternative solution to both U.S. President Donald Trump’s “all-or-nothing” strategy and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s “small deal” approach. 

Some U.S. experts have proposed “a phased approach” to break the stalemate ahead of a summit between Moon and Trump in Washington, D.C., scheduled from April 10 to 11.

The “good enough deal” assumes complete denuclearization, as outlined in Trump’s “all-or-nothing” strategy, is unrealistic.

It instead proposes a “couple of stages deal,” under which the U.S. and the North move onto the next stage and continue developing negotiations, as long as they find an agreement in the previous phase that was “good enough.”

Korea Times

This has all been tried before and did not work. Everyone remember the 2008 “cooling tower moment”:

As part of long and complex negotiations with the US, China and other nations over ending nuclear development in exchange for concessions, the reactor at Yongbyon was switched off last year. The facility is now being fully disabled, under the scrutiny of US experts.
North Korea’s denuclearisation took another significant step forwards yesterday when it submitted a long-awaited inventory of its atomic activities, prompting the US to initiate steps to remove Pyongyang from its list of states that sponsor terrorism.
The breakthrough, which will also see Washington lift some sanctions and Pyongyang demolish some of its nuclear facilities, is expected to jump-start six-party talks aimed at easing 55 years of tension on the peninsula.

The Guardian

The Kim regime does not care about having all the sanctions removed, all they need is partial sanctions relief. Partial relief allows money to come in to reinforce the lifestyle of the regime elite, increase funding for their military, and modernize their nuclear and missile capabilities. Notice I did not include improving the welfare of their people because that has obviously not been a priority for many decades in North Korea. Poor and marginally hungry people are easier to control.

This is why the focus for the Kim regime as well as the Moon administration in South Korea has been to reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex and restart the Kumgang Resort tours as partial sanctions relief. The Kim regime also wants South Korean funded infrastructure improvements as well.

Kim Jong-un is willing to give the Trump administration their own “cooling tower moment” and smile for a few cameras to make this happen. However, they are not going to fully denuclearize for full full sanctions relief because they don’t need full sanctions relief. That is why I call all of this “pretend denuclearization“.

That is why I also think the Trump administration has been focusing on an all or nothing deal much to the chagrin of many so called experts.

“At this point, any realistic policy must begin with accepting the reality that complete and fully verifiable denuclearization is not a realistic prospect any time soon,” Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Hass wrote in a contribution to Project Syndicate magazine. “It need not and should not be abandoned as a long-term goal, but it cannot dominate near-term policy. An all-or-nothing policy toward North Korea will result in nothing.”

Korea Times

We will see over the coming months if the Trump administration listens to the advice from the expert crowd.

Responding to question on what Kim Jong-un wants most from the US, GEN Brooks says “An economic guarantee from the US to protect it from China.” #JFKJrForumLive @harvardiop

— Kyle Ferrier (@kylecferrier) April 1, 2019

Like I have been saying if the North Koreans do decide to do a launch they will call it a peaceful space launch which gives their allies China and Russia cover to claim nation’s have a right to a peaceful space program. At the same time this will raise tensions to put pressure on the Trump administration to cut a deal with the North Koreans. I don’t think we have reached the point yet of a near term launch since negotiations are still going on, but I guess we will see what happens:

North Korea could be on the brink of a missile launch from a pad on its western coast, said a South Korean official on Monday. 

A series of ominous signs – the foremost being the near complete restoration of a missile launch site on the western coast – is fueling speculation that the regime is gearing up to launch its first rocket since its rapprochement with first South Korea and then the United States last year – a move that could reverse a year’s worth of engagement. 

Backing up a briefing made by Seoul’s spy chief, Suh Hoon, at South Korea’s National Assembly last Friday, the official said the North’s reconstruction of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, which started in February, is effectively complete, and a launch only needs a go-ahead from leader Kim Jong-un. 

Sohae was the site from which the North launched its Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite in February 2016. Kim Jong-un promised South Korean President Moon Jae-in to dismantle Sohae at their Pyongyang summit last September, and some work was done that appeared to be dismantling.  

Sources in Seoul had said early last month that the North could launch from Sohae not a warhead but a satellite equipped with new technology brought in from China, shaking Washington out of a protracted stalemate over denuclearization.  

North Korea maintains a distinction between testing of military ballistic missiles and launching satellites, which it maintains have a peaceful, scientific purpose. But nuclear experts abroad say the fact that the same type of rockets are used for both purposes makes that difference meaningless. Missile launches of any type by Pyongyang are banned under UN Resolution 1695, adopted in 2006. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

This should come as no surprise that the Moon administration is openly collaborating with North Korea for a “pretend denuclearization” deal:

South Korea is in the process of persuading the United States to accept a piecemeal deal for the North’s denuclearization, Seoul’s spy chief told the National Assembly on Friday.

According to one lawmaker who sat through a briefing by Suh Hoon, head of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), the director said the South Korean government is in the midst of “constant discussions” with the United States in regard to a denuclearization process by the North that “can only proceed piece by piece.”

“Complete denuclearization is not something that can be done immediately since it requires a gradual process,” Suh reportedly said. “But the United States and South Korean positions are not divergent.”

The step-by-step approach at the center of Seoul’s campaign is closer to the “small deal” favored by the North compared to the U.S. push for an all-in-one plan that has reduced negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang to a stalemate since the collapse of the summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, from Feb. 27 to 28.

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but a piece by piece deal means that the US will drop sanctions for little to nothing in return from North Korea. We have seen this happen already twice during the Clinton and Bush administrations; this is why the Trump administration has been pushing for an all or nothing deal.

What's behind North Korea's recent efforts to promote the education sector?: https://t.co/R1dzIX0x5q

— The Diplomat (@Diplomat_APAC) March 31, 2019

(LEAD) Half of S. Koreans expect U.S., N. Korea won't reach agreement on denuclearization: poll https://t.co/fkHjyy88nT

— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) March 31, 2019

I am sympathetic to the Jayu Joseon group’s goal of removing the Kim regime, but it is a slippery slope to support raiding foreign embassies:

Spain has issued two international arrest warrants in the case, one for a Mexican national residing in the U.S., Adrian Hong Chang, and the other for an American citizen. After lifting a secrecy order in the case, a Spanish investigating judge revealed the identities of seven of the alleged 10 intruders in a court document on Tuesday.
It remained unclear if the Spanish government identified the suspects in the raid through their own investigation or whether U.S. authorities had passed on the names of the alleged intruders.

The group has alleged the U.S. betrayed its trust after members approached the FBI.

“The organization shared certain information of enormous potential value with the FBI in the United States, under mutually agreed terms of confidentiality,” the group said on its website. “This information was shared voluntarily and on their request, not our own. Those terms appear to have been broken.”
Lee Wolosky, an attorney for Free Joseon and a former U.S. envoy for Guantanamo, told NBC News that “when all the facts come out regarding Madrid, it will be clear that the Spanish judge reached a number of inaccurate conclusions.”

“Certainly the decision of the Spanish judge to publicly disclose the names of those working in opposition to the Kim regime — which routinely assassinates its adversaries — was irresponsible and put these individuals in unnecessary jeopardy.”

NBC News

You can read more at the link, but if the Jayu Joseon group was not on North Korea’s hit list already, this raid has definitely made them a target for some Kim Jong-nam style retaliation.

The Moon administration is further pushing the confederation idea with no hint of North Korea denuclearizing:

The South Korean government is planning to fund research projects into a range of potential models for unification with North Korea, documents seen by NK News showed this week, with case-studies including federation and EU-style confederation among several under consideration.
In plans for the two research projects, the South Korean Ministry of Unification (MOU) asked prospective participants in the project to examine cases of gradual unification.
Previous research on unification, it said, has concentrated on comparing Korea’s case to that of the “radical unification” of Germany in 1990, asking researchers to assume the North and South would likely take a more gradual approach.
Participants are also asked to look to the step-by-step process of unification suggested in the “Korean National Community Unification Formula” and pay attention to “implications that could be considered in the process of gradual change.”
The formula has long been the South Korean government’s formal plan for unification and is composed of three stages: reconciliation and cooperation, inter-Korean confederation, and unification.

NK News

You can read more at the link, but if these so called researchers try to copy the EU model, then their analysis is already a failure. There were no countries in the EU that were international pariahs threatening world peace by threatening their neighbors with conventional or nuclear attack. There was no countries in the EU launching terrorist attacks and a non-stop propaganda campaign into a neighboring country to undermine it either.

I can save the Moon administration all the money they are paying for this research by stating that any confederation that happens will occur on North Korean terms. That means a peace treaty that leads to the withdrawal of USFK, North Korea does not denuclearize, and South Korea carries the burden of rebuilding North Korea’s infrastructure, modernizing their military, and funding the Kim regime’s lavish lifestyle.

There will be no political or social openness in North Korea in return, instead the ideological indoctrination will be strengthened by the “victory” over the Americans by getting them to withdraw and the tribute the South Korean “puppets” are paying to Kim Jong-un in preparation for North Korea’s final victory.

Hmm, I wonder if North Korea was behind all those emails I got from the Ugandan prince wanting to give me ten million dollars if only I gave my bank information. 😀 https://t.co/eoiqNsc3eL

— Bruce Klingner (@BruceKlingner) March 28, 2019