It appears that the North Koreans are trying to get President Trump to remove anyone from negotiations that opposes their “pretend denuclearization” strategy:
North Korea is urging the U.S. government to remove Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from the current nuclear negotiations.
Pyongyang’s state-run Korean Central News Agency on Thursday ran an interview with the director of the North America desk of the North Korean Foreign Ministry.
The official said rather than Pompeo, Pyongyang hopes for a more amicable and seasoned official to represent Washington should the stalled North Korea-U.S. negotiations resume.
Arguing that Pompeo caused the collapse of the Hanoi talks, the official said it is fortunate that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un maintains good relations with U.S. President Donald Trump.
North Korea and Pompeo have had a rocky relationship.
In a briefing to foreign diplomats in Pyongyang on March 15, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui condemned Pompeo and White House National Security Advisor John Bolton for obstructing the talks in Hanoi.
It looks like North Korea has decided to fire a battlefield rocket which allows them to slowly increase tensions without creating a full blown crisis that firing a ballistic missile would do:
North Korea’s state-run Korean Central TV reported on Wednesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gave “field guidance” to pilots from Unit 1017 of the Korean People’s Army Air and Anti-Air Force, one of his most recent military outings. [YONHAP]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Wednesday supervised a test firing of a “new-type tactical guided weapon” developed by an institute responsible for its missile program, according to state media.
The development of the new weapon system was an “event of very weighty significance in increasing the combat power of the People’s Army,” read the state-run Rodong Sinmun’s English report on the test, which attributed the system’s development to the Academy of Defense Science.
Several military analysts in South Korea said it could be a variation of a short-range ballistic missile launcher imported from Russia called the 9K720 Iskander, which North Korea displayed at a military parade in Pyongyang last February.
The only description of the weapon itself in the Rodong Sinmun report was that its “design indexes” had “advantages … appreciated for the peculiar mode of guiding flight,” indicating that it was outfitted with a type of guidance system. The test involved “various modes of firing at different targets” that verified “the load of a powerful warhead,” the report added.
You can read more at the link, but Kim Jong-un promised President Trump to suspend missile and nuclear tests. When he decides to fire a ballistic missile is when we know negotiations are over. This test was just a warning to the Trump administration that the Kim regime is losing patience and want their “pretend denuclearization” deal.
The Moon Jae-in administration is again trying to pull a fast one to avoid North Korean sanctions:
The Korea Customs Service (KCS, 관세청) of South Korea has begun to consider measures to approve a ‘Made in [South] Korea’ label, not just for products made in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, but also for goods made all over North Korea. There is still a difference of opinions between the government of South Korea and the U.S. Nevertheless, the South Korean government seems to continue to try to evade economic sanctions against North Korea.
In the last summit between the U.S. and South Korea [on April 10, 2019], President Trump made clear that he is against easing the economic sanctions for resuming the Gaeseong industrial complex and Geumgang Mountain tourism.
President Trump said on April 11, “When we’re at the right time, I’d have great support; this isn’t the right time [to soften the sanctions].”
In contrast to the U.S. government’s position, the Korea Customs Service in March prepared the “Comprehensive Aid Roadmap,” which approves North Korean-made products as made in South Korea, and began an internal review. They want products made in all regions of North Korea to be labeled as “Made in Korea.” [Numerous products made in South Korea are labeled “Made in Korea” and most consumers would assume the goods are made in South Korea, not North Korea.]
You can read more at the link, but the Moon administration even wants to allow the Kim regime to export “Made in Korea” items directly from North Korea under the ROK’s FTA agreement. This is absurd I cannot imagine that the Trump administration is going to fall for this scheme.
NK department storeThis photo, released by the Korean Central News Agency on April 8, 2019, shows the women’s clothes section of the soon-to-be-opened Taesong Department Store in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang. (Yonhap)
Moon Jae-in has chosen as his new Unification Minister someone that does not believe in sanctions on North Korea:
South Korea’s new point man on North Korea pledged Monday to try to use inter-Korean economic cooperation as a catalyst to move the hard-won peace process with the communist neighbor forward. Kim Yeon-chul, newly sworn in as unification minister, made the remarks in his inauguration speech Monday. He replaced Cho Myoung-gyon, who had served as unification minister handling inter-Korea affairs under the Moon Jae-in government since July 2017. “It is time for us to reap the fruits of peace that we have sown so far,” Kim said. “We need to seize the opportunity for co-prosperity of the South and the North. We never know when such a chance will come again if we miss it.
“I will work hard to strengthen a virtuous circle in which we strengthen peace by using business as a link and strengthen economic cooperation (with North Korea) again based on the peace,” he added. Kim did not mention any particular economic cooperation with North Korea, but he has supported the reopening of suspended cross-border projects, such as an industrial complex in the North’s border town of Kaesong and tours to Mount Kumgang on the North’s east coast
Here is Kim Yeon-chul’s background, as expected he is a North Korea appeaser:
Kim, an expert on North Korean affairs and former head of a Seoul-based think tank, is known for his strong support for more active inter-Korean economic cooperation and criticism of sanctions imposed on North Korea. He has said that such restrictions have not been effective in forcing North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program.
Neither has appeasement and cross border projects caused North Korea to denuclearize either. In fact if anything the past appeasement strategy by South Korea is what gave the Kim regime the funding to advanced their nuclear and ICBM capabilities.
A “good enough deal” is just code for “pretend denuclearization”:
South Korea’s proposal for a “good enough deal” with North Korea to advance the now-stalled denuclearization talks between Pyongyang and Washington is apparently gaining ground among U.S. officials and experts.
Cheong Wa Dae recently proposed a “good enough deal” as a possible alternative solution to both U.S. President Donald Trump’s “all-or-nothing” strategy and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s “small deal” approach.
Some U.S. experts have proposed “a phased approach” to break the stalemate ahead of a summit between Moon and Trump in Washington, D.C., scheduled from April 10 to 11.
The “good enough deal” assumes complete denuclearization, as outlined in Trump’s “all-or-nothing” strategy, is unrealistic.
It instead proposes a “couple of stages deal,” under which the U.S. and the North move onto the next stage and continue developing negotiations, as long as they find an agreement in the previous phase that was “good enough.”
This has all been tried before and did not work. Everyone remember the 2008 “cooling tower moment”:
South Koreans at a railway station in Seoul watch a video showing a simulation of the demolition of a cooling nuclear tower at North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex.
As part of long and complex negotiations with the US, China and other nations over ending nuclear development in exchange for concessions, the reactor at Yongbyon was switched off last year. The facility is now being fully disabled, under the scrutiny of US experts. North Korea’s denuclearisation took another significant step forwards yesterday when it submitted a long-awaited inventory of its atomic activities, prompting the US to initiate steps to remove Pyongyang from its list of states that sponsor terrorism. The breakthrough, which will also see Washington lift some sanctions and Pyongyang demolish some of its nuclear facilities, is expected to jump-start six-party talks aimed at easing 55 years of tension on the peninsula.
The Kim regime does not care about having all the sanctions removed, all they need is partial sanctions relief. Partial relief allows money to come in to reinforce the lifestyle of the regime elite, increase funding for their military, and modernize their nuclear and missile capabilities. Notice I did not include improving the welfare of their people because that has obviously not been a priority for many decades in North Korea. Poor and marginally hungry people are easier to control.
This is why the focus for the Kim regime as well as the Moon administration in South Korea has been to reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex and restart the Kumgang Resort tours as partial sanctions relief. The Kim regime also wants South Korean funded infrastructure improvements as well.
Kim Jong-un is willing to give the Trump administration their own “cooling tower moment” and smile for a few cameras to make this happen. However, they are not going to fully denuclearize for full full sanctions relief because they don’t need full sanctions relief. That is why I call all of this “pretend denuclearization“.
That is why I also think the Trump administration has been focusing on an all or nothing deal much to the chagrin of many so called experts.
“At this point, any realistic policy must begin with accepting the reality that complete and fully verifiable denuclearization is not a realistic prospect any time soon,” Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Hass wrote in a contribution to Project Syndicate magazine. “It need not and should not be abandoned as a long-term goal, but it cannot dominate near-term policy. An all-or-nothing policy toward North Korea will result in nothing.”
Responding to question on what Kim Jong-un wants most from the US, GEN Brooks says “An economic guarantee from the US to protect it from China.” #JFKJrForumLive@harvardiop
Coal at N. Korean portThis satellite photo, taken by DigitalGlobe on Feb. 24, 2019, shows North Korea’s Rajin port. Stacks of coal are visible at the port’s Pier 2, apparently for shipment. Coal is an embargoed item under U.N. sanctions on the North’s nuclear and missile programs. 38 North unveiled the photo on April 1. (Yonhap)
Like I have been saying if the North Koreans do decide to do a launch they will call it a peaceful space launch which gives their allies China and Russia cover to claim nation’s have a right to a peaceful space program. At the same time this will raise tensions to put pressure on the Trump administration to cut a deal with the North Koreans. I don’t think we have reached the point yet of a near term launch since negotiations are still going on, but I guess we will see what happens:
North Korea could be on the brink of a missile launch from a pad on its western coast, said a South Korean official on Monday.
A series of ominous signs – the foremost being the near complete restoration of a missile launch site on the western coast – is fueling speculation that the regime is gearing up to launch its first rocket since its rapprochement with first South Korea and then the United States last year – a move that could reverse a year’s worth of engagement.
Backing up a briefing made by Seoul’s spy chief, Suh Hoon, at South Korea’s National Assembly last Friday, the official said the North’s reconstruction of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, which started in February, is effectively complete, and a launch only needs a go-ahead from leader Kim Jong-un.
Sohae was the site from which the North launched its Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite in February 2016. Kim Jong-un promised South Korean President Moon Jae-in to dismantle Sohae at their Pyongyang summit last September, and some work was done that appeared to be dismantling.
Sources in Seoul had said early last month that the North could launch from Sohae not a warhead but a satellite equipped with new technology brought in from China, shaking Washington out of a protracted stalemate over denuclearization.
North Korea maintains a distinction between testing of military ballistic missiles and launching satellites, which it maintains have a peaceful, scientific purpose. But nuclear experts abroad say the fact that the same type of rockets are used for both purposes makes that difference meaningless. Missile launches of any type by Pyongyang are banned under UN Resolution 1695, adopted in 2006.
