What are the unique features of the Yusang-ni Missile Operating Base? Why is it important? @CSIS’s short video answers all of these questions: https://t.co/7gDXqqws58
— CSIS Korea Chair (@CSISKoreaChair) July 14, 2019
Want to learn more? Read @BeyondCSISKorea’s report: https://t.co/T2QwXbWnR3 pic.twitter.com/itQqITu43T
Retired Admiral James Stavridis has an opinion piece published in Bloomberg on how he believes North Korea’s denuclearization should be pursued:
While the ultimate shape of what might be termed “denuclearization lite” remains unclear, one can envision the general outline. For starters, the U.S. would likely demand a full, verifiable accounting of North Korea’s active nuclear and missile programs, with specific geographic positions identified. The U.S. could also push for a reduction in the total stockpile to a number that international inspectors could keep under permanent observation, say 50 warheads of a specified level of kilotons each. The warheads would be held in a small number of locations, three or so, each with a technical oversight system (cameras, electronic monitors) to alert inspectors if the facilities were breached. There could be a similar plan for the launcher systems, but they would be based different parts of the country than the warheads. All of this would be verified by international teams, which would have a mandate to inspect the facilities at any time.
In exchange, the North would receive sanctions relief and a large amount of development aid, although perhaps not of the kind Trump famously proposed for North Korea’s beaches in his first meeting with Kim: “Boy, look at that view. Wouldn’t that make a great condo?”
Bloomberg
You can read more at the link, but the international community could not get proper inspections of North Korean food aid, what makes anyone think the Kim regime will allow unannounced inspections of their nuclear weapons?
We have seen this movie before. It appears that North Korea is heading towards another deal where some sanctions are dropped in return for mostly future promises from the Kim regime to denuclearize. They will behave for a while and then once their cash reserves are restocked they will break the deal at a time of their choosing and blame the U.S. for its breakdown. Another provocation cycle will begin with more calls for talks and eventually another deal will be reached.
All the journalists and think tank types can then recycle all their old articles and opinion pieces. The only wild card with this issue is President Trump. Is he willing to watch this same old movie play out?
NK thoroughly deterred the mighty US with conventional weapons alone throughout the 1960s-2000s, before it went nuclear in 2006. Killed dozens of US servicemen and never paid any price. The notion NK is paranoid & developed nukes for self-defense only is creepy self-consolation. https://t.co/ia3Fyi7Tim
— Sung-Yoon Lee (@SungYoonLee1) July 13, 2019
On July 11, 2008 Pak Wang-Ja, a 53 yr-old wife/mom/tourist from SK, while out on a walk, was shot in the back & killed by NK guards at Mt. Geumgang resort in #NorthKorea, funded by SK's Hyundai, allegedly for having walked into a no-entry zone. NK never apologized. #Engagement
— Sung-Yoon Lee (@SungYoonLee1) July 10, 2019
I thought it was reported that North Korea has a price on this man's head. If true, wouldn't he be safer in jail than out free where he could be killed? https://t.co/P1xqexyzcx
— NorthKoreaRealTime (@BuckTurgidson79) July 9, 2019
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is really increasing his criticism of the Moon administration:
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Sunday linked Tokyo’s economic retaliatory measures against Seoul with the implementation of North Korea sanctions – underscoring a lack of “trust” in South Korea.
Abe appeared to be sidestepping the real reason for his government’s restrictions on industrial exports to Korea – court rulings against Japanese companies found guilty of forcing Koreans to work for them during World War II – and suggesting an overarching problem with trust in Seoul that extends to security concerns.
One suggestion is that high-tech products made with Japanese materials may be making their way to North Korea.
Speaking on a televised debate ahead of upper house elections on Fuji TV, Abe said that South Korea “claims that it is abiding by sanctions on North Korea” and is also following the Wassenaar Arrangement, the first multilateral export control regime for conventional weapons and sensitive dual-use goods and technologies.
Abe went on to suggest that Seoul is not capable of fulfilling its commitment to implement sanctions on the North because it “clearly does not keep its promises and abide by the claims agreement between two countries” and “obviously will not properly abide by trade regulations.”
On the matter of his government’s new restrictions on exports of key industrial materials to Korea, Abe said that there was an “occurrence of an inappropriate matter,” and added, “you can’t trust what they say.”
Japan on Thursday implemented export restrictions to Korea on three key materials – fluorinated polyimide, hydrogen fluoride and photoresists – needed in the production of semiconductors and smartphones.
Joong Ang Ilbo
You can read more at the link.
He will probably eventually regret this, but we will never hear about it:
A South Korean son of Ryu Mi-yong, the late chairwoman of a North Korean minor political party, has arrived in Pyongyang to live in the communist country for good, a North Korean propaganda media outlet said Sunday.
Ryu and her husband, Choe Tok-sin, who served as foreign minister in South Korea during the 1960s, emigrated to the United States in 1976 and defected to the North in 1986, leaving behind two sons and three daughters.
In the North, Ryu served as chairwoman of the central committee of the Chondoist Chongu Party.
On Saturday, Uriminzokkiri, one of the North’s propaganda websites, reported that Ryu’s second son, Choe In-guk, arrived in Pyongyang on Saturday for “permanent residence.”
If confirmed, it would be a rare case of a South Korean national entering North Korea and publicly announcing a decision for permanent residence there.
Upon arriving at a Pyongyang airport, Choe said he will devote his life to helping achieve the feat of national unification in accordance with the desire of his late parents.
“To live in and follow a country for which I feel thankful is a path to protect the will left by my parents. So I’ve decided to permanently live in North Korea, albeit belatedly,” the media outlet quoted Choe as saying.
Yonhap
You can read more at the link.
If the Trump administration goes with the “small deal” approach with North Korea, they are essentially doing what has already been tried before and did not work:
An editorial published by the Washington Post has put forward the argument that a step-by-step “small deal” is the only diplomatic way forward with North Korea.
Columnist Josh Rogin said in an op-ed Thursday that the United States and North Korea are resuming negotiations in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s impromptu meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un last weekend, and that a fight over North Korea policy has rekindled within the Trump administration.
He said, “What we’re seeing now is a return to the idea of a step-by-step approach known as the ‘small deal,’” which he called the only diplomatic path with any chance of success.
He asserted that the Trump administration, led on this issue by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and special representative Stephen Biegun, is now returning to an incremental and phased approach to persuading North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.
KBS World Radio
You can read more at the link, but a small deal would politically get the Trump administration through the 2020 election cycle which is what I think the North Koreans are counting on. The longer they wait and the harder they negotiate up to the 2020 election cycle the better deal they will likely get. Their goal is to get sanctions relief and keep their nukes and the small deal allows them to do this.
If a small deal is signed it will likely be marketed as a “Big Deal” if it includes a path to full denuclearization of North Korea. This politically allows the Trump administration to claim they have achieved a deal to completely denuclearize North Korea as a foreign policy achievement during the 2020 election. However, as we have seen in the past it is likely that the Kim regime will tear up the agreement at a time of their choosing and blame the U.S. for the deal’s failure. By the time this happens their treasury will be flush with cash due to the easing of sanctions and maybe even get major political concessions such as a Korean War peace treaty and USFK troop reductions.
I guess we will see where this is headed to in the next few months.
Well now we know what Australian Alek Sigley got in trouble for in North Korea, because he was “spying” for NK News:
KCNA said Sigley, who was caught “red-handed” by a “relevant institution” of the North on June 25, had abused his status as a student by “combing” through Pyongyang and providing photos and other information to news sites such as NK News and other “anti-DPRK” media, a reference to the North’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The news agency said the North expelled Sigley out of “humanitarian leniency.”
“He honestly admitted his spying acts of systematically collecting and offering data about the domestic situation of the DPRK and repeatedly asked for pardon, apologizing for encroachment upon the sovereignty of the DPRK,” the agency said.
Associated Press
You can read more at the link, but what Mr. Sigley was publishing articles at NK News about life in Pyongyang that were very innocuous. I suspect he did not get proper clearance for posting the articles and thus why he was detained. However, since he was spoken positively about North Korea for so long he did not get the Otto Warmbier treatment and was instead released. Here is a statement from NK News about Sigley’s detention.
It will be interesting to see if he ever turns up in Pyongyang again.
