So Se Pyong, North Korea’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, gestures during an interview with Reuters at the Permanent Mission of North Korea in Geneva, Switzerland, November 17, 2016. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
If a U.S. administration of Donald Trump withdraws troops and equipment from South Korea and secures a peace treaty ending war on the peninsula, it could lead to normalizing relations with North Korea, a Pyongyang envoy told Reuters on Thursday.
But for now North Korea will pursue its policy of “simultaneous development” of both its nuclear program and the economy, So Se Pyong, North Korea’s Ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva said. “It will be continued.” [Reuters]
It appears that the North Koreans are taking a wait and see approach in regards to how they will respond to the election of Donald Trump:
North Korea has made its first indirect comment on the result of the US presidential election, one week after American voters went to the polls.
The first mention of Donald Trump’s victory appeared in a news report on a different matter entirely – and then only as a means to attack Pyongyang’s sworn enemy, South Korea.
Hidden deep down in a commentary calling for the resignation of embattled South Korean President Park Geun-hye, state news agency KCNA refers to her ruling Saenuri Party making use of a “Trump emergency system” to divert the public’s attention away from the current cronyism scandal threatening Ms Park’s leadership.
In the same report, headlined “South Korea leader ‘bound to get buried’ over scandal”, KCNA goes on to make its first mention of last week’s election, saying Ms Park and her followers were making a “bid to use even the US presidential election as an emergency measure” to escape impeachment.
Mr Trump is mentioned entirely without context, with no explanation to readers who or what “Trump” might be, and Korea-watchers will have to go back to June this year to find his last meaningful mention by Pyongyang. [BBC]
Trump has done pretty well for himself by not listening to the experts. I guess we will see if he wants to the listen to the so called experts about North Korea and decide to cut a deal with the Kim regime:
“Engagement” will be the most viable option for the new U.S. government to make North Korea give up its nuclear and missile programs, three experts said Friday.
A forum in Seoul called on the Donald Trump administration that begins in January to seek dialogue-based engagement policies toward a nuclear-armed North Korea.
Ken E. Gause, director of the International Affairs Group at the Center for Naval Analyses, outlined possible policy options for the incoming Trump administration — pre-emption, intensified sanctions and engagement — as President Obama’s “strategic patience” approach is widely received as a failure.
He proposed the new government give priority to engagement involving both dialogue and pressure, citing the potentially catastrophic downsides of pre-emptive attacks and the ineffectiveness of stronger sanctions heavily reliant on China.
“It is an option, however, that will require many years, if not decades, to achieve,” Gause said.
“The (engagement) option is the least appealing to the U.S. and South Korean policymakers. It is tainted by the history of past policies of appeasement. It smacks of rewarding bad behavior and giving Pyongyang de facto recognition as a nuclear state, something the United States and South Korea have said they will never do,” Gause said. [Yonhap]
Even the Korea Times is jumping on the bandwagon that Trump won the US Presidential election because America is filled with white racists:
In disbelief and denial, people fear how their lives may or may not be impacted under a leader who has constantly been labeled a racist and sexist throughout a divisive and ugly campaign.
But for many Korean-Americans, the uncertainty runs even deeper.
”We’re talking about a man who has been hating on immigrants, not to mention criticizing South Korea as ‘free-riders,”’ says Michael Kim, 26, one of many younger generation Korean-Americans who have teamed up to campaign for Trump’s defeated Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton in California, a liberal stronghold. ”These two factors alone can’t be good for all of us Koreans who live in the U.S.”
Korean-American political observers say never in recent history have so many Koreans been unified against one single candidate.
According to a recent poll, 63 percent of eligible Korean-American voters said they would vote for Clinton, while only 10 percent backed Trump.
”The reason is simple,” says Lisa Kim, 42, a member of the Korean American Coalition in New York, a non-partisan community advocacy organization. ”People are feeling threatened by this new and emerging political force who has awaken a movement of white nationalists.”
Life in America under Trump’s leadership, Kim says, is likely to be tougher for Asians and other minorities.
”Racism is one of the biggest concerns we’re facing,” she said, stressing that this election has exposed a surprising depth of underlying racism deeply planted in the American society. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but I fully expect more articles like this from the media as well as complaints about the Electoral College system in an attempt to delegitimize Trump before he even takes over the Presidency.
According to Victor Cha, under a Trump Presidency expect the OPCON issue to come back again:
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could try to complete the postponed transfer of the wartime operational control of South Korean forces from Washington to Seoul in an effort to reduce American security burdens, a top expert on Korea said Wednesday.
South Korea handed over control of its forces to the U.S. during the 1950-53 Korean War to defend against invading troops from North Korea. Peacetime control of its forces was returned in 1994, but the wartime control, known as OPCON, still rests with the U.S.
The two countries agreed in 2007 to transfer OPCON to Seoul by 2012. But the planned transfer was postponed twice amid growing threats from North Korea, first until 2015 and then indefinitely until the South becomes more capable of coping with the North’s threats.
“Trump’s guiding principle has been to put American interests first. In this regard, it is entirely plausible that a Trump presidency may seek to complete OPCON transfer and put these responsibilities in the hands of Koreans,” said Victor Cha, Korea chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if Trump uses the OPCON issue as a negotiating chip to get South Korea to pay more for the upkeep of USFK.
It was an amazing US election to see Donald Trump defy expectations and win the US Presidency over Hillary Clinton. Congratulations to him and his campaign team. His election will definitely be something that political scientists will be talking about for decades to come. By the way I thought his acceptance speech was really good:
“Now it’s time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans,” he said.
To countries around the world, Trump said, “While we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone.”
“All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility, partnership, not conflict,” he said. [Yonhap]
Here is what South Korean President Park Geun-hye had to say about the election of Donald Trump:
The commander-in-chief made the remarks during a briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) session after Republican Donald Trump won the White House in a hard-fought race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
“Given the United States is our ally and that the South Korea-U.S. relationship has a great impact on our diplomacy, security and economy, I think we need to extensively explore ways to develop close relations with the incoming Trump administration,” she said.
“In light of the grave situation in which North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats are growing day by day, I call on you to establish cooperative ties with the incoming U.S. administration early in the stage of the government transition,” she added. [Yonhap]
So what does Donald Trump’s victory mean for the people of South Korea who were deeply against the election of Trump? Here are my quick thoughts on the biggest areas that the ROK should expect possible impacts on:
US-ROK Free Trade Agreement: Due to Trump’s election victory the Korean stock market has tanked. The market tanked because of fears that Trump will want to renegotiate the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement:A key concern is Trump’s “America first” position that includes a preference for trade protectionism.“The market will inevitably face a short-term adjustment if Trump wins,” said Kim Ji-na, a fixed income analyst at IBK Securities. “There’s even a possibility that the 1,900 barrier could fall as Trump’s victory will only raise instability and bring about policy risks.”The bigger concern is that Korea’s economy, which has been facing tough times due to shrinking exports, will suffer heavily.“The Trump victory will not only act as a potential risk for the Korean market but also the global economy,” said Hwang Na-young, a Woori Finance Research Institute researcher. “Once Trump and the Republicans take over, most of the major policies of the Barack Obama years will be reversed: repealing Obamacare, huge tax cuts, easing of financial regulations and a preference for fossil fuel.
“Major changes are likely in regards to trade policies as protectionism deepens on top of an isolationist approach to diplomatic polices.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Here are some facts and figures about Korea-US trade from the Joong Ang Ilbo article:
I would be surprised if Trump makes it a priority to go after the US-ROK FTA. Considering the amount of manufacturing jobs brought to the US from Korean car manufacturers it seems the US-ROK FTA is a deal he would want to keep in place. I think his immediate focus will be on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) which he has been highly critical of.
North Korea Nuclear Issue: I don’t see Trump wanting to make any nuclear agreement with Kim Jong-un considering the country’s past track record of violating the agreements. What I do think he will do is push for more sanctions against Chinese banks and businesses in an effort to pressure the Chinese government to reign in North Korea:
Trump also identified North Korea as a problem for China, not the U.S.
“I would get China to make that guy disappear, in one form or another, very quickly,” Trump said in February on the CBS TV program “This Morning.”
“China has absolute control of North Korea. They won’t say it, but they do. And they should make that problem disappear.” [Korea Times]
Immigration: Any Koreans living illegally in the US and hoping for amnesty should probably forget about that idea happening anytime soon. With that said I do think ironically that with a President Trump an immigration reform deal is more likely because he will try and cut a deal that is not blanket amnesty, but at the same time provides a process for foreign workers to be sponsored to work in the US. This would reduce illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border and possibly allow him to say he does not need to fully build his famous wall.
Conclusion: So those are my quick thoughts on what the election of Donald Trump means for South Korea. I think the biggest impact is that the ROK should expect to pay more for the upkeep of USFK. If not then Trump may begin relooking the US-ROK FTA which South Korea has much more to lose. Does anyone else have any other areas that they foresee that a President Trump will have a significant impact on in South Korea over the next four years? If so please share your opinions in the comments section.
Considering how Trump has repeatedly said that he is going to make Koreans pay more for their defense and increase taxes on imports to protect American businesses is it any wonder why Hillary Clinton is polling so high in South Korea?:
Hillary Clinton meets then-ROK President Lee Myung-bak during her time as secretary of state.
If South Koreans could vote in the U.S. presidential election next month, Hillary Clinton would win by a landslide. More than 8 in 10 would throw their weight behind the Democratic candidate, who is surging in popularity both domestically and abroad, a survey released September 30 suggests.
In the poll of over 44,000 adults in 45 countries from August to September, WIN/Gallup International found that 82 percent of South Koreans would have voted for Clinton as the next U.S. president, compared to 3 percent backing her Republican opponent Donald Trump and 15 percent undecided or declining to answer.
South Koreans were Clinton’s third-strongest supporters behind only Finland and Portugal, which backed her 86 and 85 percent, respectively. The former first lady, senator, and secretary of state found support across the board, with Russia the only surveyed country preferring her business mogul rival and China nearly split on the candidates. [The Diplomat via a reader tip]
If Donald Trump does become President I think he will find out the same frustrations many other people have had in regards to trying to get China to fix North Korea:
Donald Trump said during the first presidential debate that “China should go into North Korea” to halt that country’s nuclear program and control its unpredictable leader, Kim Jong Un.
“China should solve the problem for us,” Trump said in Monday night’s debate. “China is totally powerful when it comes to North Korea.”
While China does hold a lot of sway over its belligerent communist neighbor and ally, what the Republican candidate said is very unlikely to happen. Here’s why:
• China is North Korea’s protector, chief trading partner and economic lifeline.Although China condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear weapons test on Sept. 9 — and agreed to sanctions in response to a test in January — Beijing shows no signs that it will actually crack down on North Korea. [USA Today]
You can read the rest at the link, but from the Chinese perspective it makes perfect sense to back North Korea. There would have to be major strategic shifts in the region for China to remove the Kim regime.
