I doubt this phone call will be when President Trump will ask the ROK for more funding for the US-ROK alliance, but at some point I fully expect this issue will come up considering how he made this a central issue during his campaign:
South Korea’s Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn will have a phone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump this week, Hwang’s office said Sunday.
The bilateral talks — the first since Trump was sworn in as the 45th U.S. president on Jan. 20 — will begin at 9 a.m., Monday (Korea time).
The announcement came after Reuters reported, citing a White House statement, that Trump “will speak to the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea in separate calls on Sunday (Washington time).” [Yonhap]
I think the Kim regime is taking a wait and see approach with the incoming Trump administration because of the high possibility of a left wing government being elected in the ROK. As many long time readers know a left wing ROK government means a lot of free cash going North with little to nothing in return. Causing trouble now could cause ROK voters to rally around an anti-North Korean candidate. Plus I think the Kim regime is betting on that President Trump’s demands for more funding for US forces in South Korea will lead to increased tensions between the ROK and US governments that they can later capitalize on:
North Korea’s state media issued a short report on the inauguration of U.S. President Trump on Sunday but refrained from making significant comments.
“Donald Trump of the Republican Party was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States on Jan. 20,” reported the Rodong Sinmun, a daily of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party. “The inauguration ceremony took place in Washington.”
The newspaper, however, did not deliver a separate commentary or statements on Trump. North Korean media outlets have not been making significant statements on the new administration in Washington since Trump’s victory in the election last year.
Political pundits said Pyongyang is apparently taking a wait-and-see stance until the new administration comes up with details on its polices against North Korea. [Yonhap]
Flanked by two bodyguards, a wax figure of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is unveiled at the Grevin Museum in central Seoul on Jan. 20, 2017. The museum opened its “Air Force One” zone, a replica of the office area of the U.S. presidential plane, to the public to mark Trump’s inauguration. (Yonhap)
Here is what a Yonsei professor who is an expert in international relations had to say about the incoming Trump administration:
Moon Chung-in, Yonsei University professor emeritus
Hankyoreh (Hani): Can you describe in broad strokes how the Trump administration will affect the Korean Peninsula?
Moon Chung-in (Moon): The Korean Peninsula policy won‘t be taking shape until April or May, when all the assistant secretaries have been appointed and confirmed. There are a lot of variables. But the main question is whether the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” policy will be retained, since that is linked to the global strategy the Trump administration comes up with. One has to bear in mind that Trump will reconsider the alliances according to his “America first” policy and that he’s more interested in geoeconomics [than geopolitics]. It’s also important to remember that Trump has a tendency to acknowledge what is called the Chinese and Russian sphere of influence, so he‘s not on the same page as the geopolitical strategy of checking and blockading China.
Hani: What kind of changes do you expect for the South Korea-US alliance?
Moon: Trump is blunt about the alliances. He has called out South Korea, Japan, NATO, Germany and Saudi Arabia for getting a “free ride.” He has a strong sense that the US is the benefactor and that its allies are the beneficiaries. The primary issue is adjusting how much of the joint cost of the South Korea-US alliance is covered by the two sides. First is defense burden sharing. South Korea spends 2.4% of its GDP on defense, and Trump could ask it to increase this to the US level of 4.3%. Second is defense cost sharing related to US Forces in Korea. South Korea is covering around 50%, and Trump could ask it to cover as much as 100% of this. These adjustments could be complicated by resistance inside South Korea. If a progressive government comes to power in South Korea, the question of pushing forward the transfer of wartime operational control [of South Korean troops to South Korea] would be sure to come up. Trump is likely to say that South Korea can have it right now if it wants it. He tends to act on instinct and impulse. [Hankyoreh]
This is what the North Korea experts are saying about President-Elect Trump’s emphasis on pressuring China to do something about the North Korean nuclear and missile programs:
“Trump will soon learn that he can’t just tweet away North Korea’s ICBM and nuclear programs,” said Robert Manning, a senior analyst at the Atlantic Council. “He is flat out wrong about North Korea not developing a nuclear weapon that can reach the U.S. The only question is when. But it is likely to acquire that capability during his first term.”
Since the election, Trump has repeatedly criticized China for not helping with the North, even raising questions why the U.S. should stick to the “one-China” policy of diplomatically recognizing only Beijing, not Taiwan, when China is uncooperative over the North.
That’s in line with Trump’s campaign remarks that the North is China’s problem to fix.
Experts, however, were skeptical about the idea of pressuring China to resolve the problem.
“He has unrealistic expectations about China’s ability and/or willingness to achieve outcomes in regard to North Korea. He has equally wrong and outdated assumptions about U.S. leverage with China and will learn that through making really dumb mistakes in his first year,” Manning said.
“Trump has already shown his profound ignorance by threatening to discard the One-China policy that is the foundation of US-China relations, threatening to impose 45% tariffs on Chines goods — and then asking Beijing to solve his North Korea problem. That is complete incoherence — and he hasn’t even taken office yet,” he said.
The expert noted that there is little the U.S. can do about the problem in the near term that does not risk a war, “other than strengthening deterrence, imposing tough sanctions that remove North Korea from the international financial system.”
Scott Snyder, a senior expert on Korea at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Trump’s tweets show he thinks North Korea is a priority issue that is closely linked to China.
“For Trump, the issue is strongly connected to relations with China. However, at present there are few, if any, formal diplomatic channels by which Trump can communicate with the Chinese leadership, and the Chinese foreign ministry appears to have rejected diplomacy by tweet,” Snyder said.
“In addition, Trump appears to have rejected the idea that North Korea’s development of a preemptive strike capability will happen or that it provides Pyongyang with a basis for making demands such as an end annual US-ROK military exercises,” he said.
Joel Wit, a former State Department negotiator with North Korea and currently editor of the website 38 North specializing in North Korean affairs, expressed strong skepticism about Trump’s idea of resolving the problem by pressuring China.
“If he pursues the avenue of trying to get China to solve this problem for the U.S., then he is going to fail just like the Obama administration,” he said. [Yonhap]
I guess we will see in the coming months what President-elect Trump means when he says the North Korean’s ICMB test “won’t happen”:
President-elect Donald Trump contended Monday night that North Korea would not be able to develop a nuclear weapon capable of reaching the United States, despite its claims to the contrary, and berated China for not doing enough to help stop the rogue state’s weapons program.
Trump’s declarations on Twitter came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in a New Year’s address that the country had reached the “final stages” of testing its first intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States.
You can read the whole article at the link, but I would speculate that China has been playing the “North Korea card” for years considering they have done little to nothing to stop North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs:
– China could exercise a veto against any new U.N. sanctions on North Korea, ignore existing sanctions and even accept the communist neighbor as a nuclear state if the incoming administration of Donald Trump plays the “Taiwan card,” a U.S. expert said.
Trump sparked China’s anger by accepting a call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen earlier this month in breach of the decades-long diplomatic tradition that the U.S. has kept under its “One China” policy since severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with Beijing.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland and rails against any support for Taiwan’s independence or the notion that the island is not part of the country. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties, the U.S. has maintained friendly relations with Taiwan.
On Sunday, Trump went a step further, saying he doesn’t understand “why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.” The remark suggests Trump could use the Taiwan card in dealings with Beijing. [Yonhap]
It looks like the North Koreans are willing to give some time to the incoming Trump administration:
Choe Sun-hui
A top North Korean diplomat is reported to have told her American counterparts at a meeting in Switzerland that the North will refrain from provocations until the Donald J. Trump administration’s North Korea policy is further developed.
According to Radio Free Asia on Wednesday, Choe Son-hui, director general of the U.S. Affairs Department of the North’s Foreign Ministry and a top envoy to the six-party talks, said at a meeting with her American counterparts in Geneva last month that the North “would not take action that might close the door before seeing what emerges.”
Choe reportedly told the U.S. delegation that she hopes the Trump administration will review its policy toward the North while keeping her statement in mind. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
However, she caveated her statement by saying this:
Yet, according to meeting records obtained by RFA, Choe reportedly said that should the South and the United States conduct a joint military drill, the North’s response will have to be “very tough.”
Seoul and Washington are scheduled to hold their annual Key Resolve and Foal Eagle military exercises in February.
Here is the latest on the Trump phone call with the President of Taiwan that the media was initially trying to frame as him bungling US foreign policy:
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwan’s president shows the incoming administration believes China should work hard on North Korea as much as it cares about the cross-strait issue, a transition team official was quoted as saying Tuesday.
The official made the remark during a meeting with a group of South Korean lawmakers, pointing out that China has been unwilling to use its influence over Pyongyang even though Beijing provides most of the North’s energy and food supplies, according to the participating lawmakers.
They declined to identify the official.
On Friday, Trump spoke by phone with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, breaking the decadeslong diplomatic tradition that the U.S. has kept under its “One China” policy since severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with Beijing.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland and rails against any support for Taiwan’s independence or the notion that the island is not part of the country. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties, the U.S. has maintained friendly relations with Taiwan. [Yonhap]
