Tag: Donald Trump

It was an amazing US election to see Donald Trump defy expectations and win the US Presidency over Hillary Clinton.  Congratulations to him and his campaign team.  His election will definitely be something that political scientists will be talking about for decades to come.  By the way I thought his acceptance speech was really good:

“Now it’s time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans,” he said.

To countries around the world, Trump said, “While we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone.”

“All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility, partnership, not conflict,” he said.  [Yonhap]

Here is what South Korean President Park Geun-hye had to say about the election of Donald Trump:

The commander-in-chief made the remarks during a briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) session after Republican Donald Trump won the White House in a hard-fought race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

“Given the United States is our ally and that the South Korea-U.S. relationship has a great impact on our diplomacy, security and economy, I think we need to extensively explore ways to develop close relations with the incoming Trump administration,” she said.

“In light of the grave situation in which North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats are growing day by day, I call on you to establish cooperative ties with the incoming U.S. administration early in the stage of the government transition,” she added.  [Yonhap]

So what does Donald Trump’s victory mean for the people of South Korea who were deeply against the election of Trump?  Here are my quick thoughts on the biggest areas that the ROK should expect possible impacts on:

• USFK Cost Sharing: Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to see US allies pay more to support US forces.  To keep this campaign promise I would expect that Trump will ask that South Korea pay more for the upkeep of US forces.  Currently the ROK pays about 50% for upkeep while Japan pays about 75%.  I would expect that South Korea will be asked to pay a number closer to what Japan pays.

• US-ROK Free Trade Agreement: Due to Trump’s election victory the Korean stock market has tanked.  The market tanked because of fears that Trump will want to renegotiate the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement:A key concern is Trump’s “America first” position that includes a preference for trade protectionism.“The market will inevitably face a short-term adjustment if Trump wins,” said Kim Ji-na, a fixed income analyst at IBK Securities. “There’s even a possibility that the 1,900 barrier could fall as Trump’s victory will only raise instability and bring about policy risks.”The bigger concern is that Korea’s economy, which has been facing tough times due to shrinking exports, will suffer heavily.“The Trump victory will not only act as a potential risk for the Korean market but also the global economy,” said Hwang Na-young, a Woori Finance Research Institute researcher. “Once Trump and the Republicans take over, most of the major policies of the Barack Obama years will be reversed: repealing Obamacare, huge tax cuts, easing of financial regulations and a preference for fossil fuel.

  “Major changes are likely in regards to trade policies as protectionism deepens on top of an isolationist approach to diplomatic polices.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

  Here are some facts and figures about Korea-US trade from the Joong Ang Ilbo article:

• I would be surprised if Trump makes it a priority to go after the US-ROK FTA.  Considering the amount of manufacturing jobs brought to the US from Korean car manufacturers it seems the US-ROK FTA is a deal he would want to keep in place.  I think his immediate focus will be on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) which he has been highly critical of.

• North Korea Nuclear Issue: I don’t see Trump wanting to make any nuclear agreement with Kim Jong-un considering the country’s past track record of violating the agreements.  What I do think he will do is push for more sanctions against Chinese banks and businesses in an effort to pressure the Chinese government to reign in North Korea:
  

  Trump also identified North Korea as a problem for China, not the U.S.

  “I would get China to make that guy disappear, in one form or another, very quickly,” Trump said in February on the CBS TV program “This Morning.”

  “China has absolute control of North Korea. They won’t say it, but they do. And they should make that problem disappear.” [Korea Times]

• Immigration: Any Koreans living illegally in the US and hoping for amnesty should probably forget about that idea happening anytime soon.  With that said I do think ironically that with a President Trump an immigration reform deal is more likely because he will try and cut a deal that is not blanket amnesty, but at the same time provides a process for foreign workers to be sponsored to work in the US.  This would reduce illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border and possibly allow him to say he does not need to fully build his famous wall.

Conclusion: So those are my quick thoughts on what the election of Donald Trump means for South Korea.  I think the biggest impact is that the ROK should expect to pay more for the upkeep of USFK.  If not then Trump may begin relooking the US-ROK FTA which South Korea has much more to lose.  Does anyone else have any other areas that they foresee that a President Trump will have a significant impact on in South Korea over the next four years?  If so please share your opinions in the comments section.

Considering how Trump has repeatedly said that he is going to make Koreans pay more for their defense and increase taxes on imports to protect American businesses is it any wonder why Hillary Clinton is polling so high in South Korea?:

If South Koreans could vote in the U.S. presidential election next month, Hillary Clinton would win by a landslide. More than 8 in 10 would throw their weight behind the Democratic candidate, who is surging in popularity both domestically and abroad, a survey released September 30 suggests.

In the poll of over 44,000 adults in 45 countries from August to September, WIN/Gallup International found that 82 percent of South Koreans would have voted for Clinton as the next U.S. president, compared to 3 percent backing her Republican opponent Donald Trump and 15 percent undecided or declining to answer.

South Koreans were Clinton’s third-strongest supporters behind only Finland and Portugal, which backed her 86 and 85 percent, respectively. The former first lady, senator, and secretary of state found support across the board, with Russia the only surveyed country preferring her business mogul rival and China nearly split on the candidates.  [The Diplomat via a reader tip]

You can read more at the link.

If Donald Trump does become President I think he will find out the same frustrations many other people have had in regards to trying to get China to fix North Korea:

Donald Trump said during the first presidential debate that “China should go into North Korea” to halt that country’s nuclear program and control its unpredictable leader, Kim Jong Un.

“China should solve the problem for us,” Trump said in Monday night’s debate. “China is totally powerful when it comes to North Korea.”

While China does hold a lot of sway over its belligerent communist neighbor and ally, what the Republican candidate said is very unlikely to happen. Here’s why:

• China is North Korea’s protector, chief trading partner and economic lifeline.Although China condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear weapons test on Sept. 9 — and agreed to sanctions in response to a test in January — Beijing shows no signs that it will actually crack down on North Korea.  [USA Today]

You can read the rest at the link, but from the Chinese perspective it makes perfect sense to back North Korea.  There would have to be major strategic shifts in the region for China to remove the Kim regime.

Pretty interesting article about Colin Powell’s email that were hacked and released recently.  It is amazing he was willing to say these things on email, but here is one of the critical things he says about Hillary Clinton:

“I would rather not have to vote for her, although she is a friend I respect,” Powell wrote to Leeds on July 26, 2014. “A 70-year person with a long track record, unbridled ambition, greedy, not transformational, with a husband still dicking bimbos at home (according to the NYP).”  [Washington Examiner]

Here is what he had to say about Donald Trump:

“Yup, the whole birther movement was racist,” Mr. Powell wrote in one email. “That’s what the 99% believe. When Trump couldn’t keep that up he said he also wanted to see if the certificate noted that he was a Muslim. As I have said before, ‘What if he was?’ Muslims are born as Americans everyday.”

Powell also called Trump a “national disgrace” and an “international pariah.”

You can read much more at the link.

https://twitter.com/AskAKorean/status/771973042385944576

North Korea has "no trust, no expectations" for Trump or Clinton, officials say https://t.co/QJEWa1PCy1

— Alastair Gale (@AlastairGale) June 20, 2016

Well known North Korean sympathizing professor Bruce Cumings thinks a Trump presidency would be interesting based on some of his campaign rhetoric about North Korea:

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump could bring a number of “interesting” things to the U.S. presidency, including how the real estate tycoon would deal with North Korea, an American professor said.

Bruce Cumings, a University of Chicago professor with deep expertise on Korea, made the remark in a recent article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, noting that Trump has expressed a willingness to hold direct talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

“If Hillary Clinton becomes president, she will undoubtedly continue the policy of isolation and denuclearization of North Korea. Any number of things would make a Trump presidency interesting, to say the least, but one of them is to see what he would really do in regard to Korea policy,” Cumings said.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

I wonder what burger joint Trump would hold this proposed summit at?  Would Dennis Rodman be invited?:

 

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said Wednesday he would “accept” North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to the United States and hold nuclear negotiations with him while eating hamburgers, according to news reports.

“If he came here, I’d accept him,” Trump said during campaigning in Atlanta, reaffirming his willingness to meet with the North’s leader, according to reports. “Who the hell cares? I’ll talk to anybody.”

Trump first expressed his willingness to meet with Kim in an interview last month, drawing criticism not only from critics, but also from his own party that such a meeting would end up bolstering the dictator.

But while Trump has insisted on his willingness to speak to the North’s leader, but said he won’t go to the North for such talks.

Should Kim visit the U.S., Trump said he won’t throw him a state dinner.

“I wouldn’t give him a state dinner like China or all these other nations who are ripping us off,” Trump was quoted as saying. “We should be eating a hamburger on a conference table and making better deals.”

Trump said he will only “make a good deal” if he were to hold talks with the North’s leader.

The real-estate tycoon was also quoted as saying that there’s a “10 percent or 20 percent chance” he could talk Kim out of developing nuclear weapons.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I think Donald Trump is over estimating his negotiating skills if he thinks he has up to a 20% chance of talking Kim out of developing nuclear weapons.  The only deal I can see  that would convince the Kim regime of stopping their nuclear weapons development would be to allow them to conquer South Korea.  This is obviously something the US would never agree to so what deal does Trump have in mind that would convince them?

The Kim regime appears to be hoping that a future Trump presidency would in fact withdraw US troops from South Korea:

North Korean state media has praised US presidential hopeful Donald Trump, describing him as a “wise politician” and “far-sighted candidate” who could help unify the Korean peninsula.

An editorial in DPRK Today, an official media outlet, welcomed the Republican presidential candidate’s proposal to hold direct talks with Kim Jong-un, saying he could help bring about Pyongyang’s “Yankee go home” policy.

“There are many positive aspects to Trump’s ‘inflammatory policies’,” wrote Han Yong-mook, who described himself as a Chinese North Korean scholar.

“Trump said he will not get involved in the war between the South and the North, isn’t this fortunate from North Korea’ perspective?”

Analysts said that although the editorial was not officially from Pyongyang, it was sure to reflect thinking inside the regime.

“This is very striking,” said Aidan Foster-Carter of the University of Leeds. “Admittedly it is not exactly Pyongyang speaking, or at least not the DPRK government in an official capacity. But it is certainly Pyongyang flying a kite, or testing the waters.

“For the rest of us, this is a timely reminder – if it were needed – of just how completely Trump plans to tear up established US policy in the region.”

The editorial referred to Trump’s speech in March, in which he suggested he would withdraw US military forces from Seoul if South Korea did not increase spending on defence.

“Yes do it, now … Who knew that the slogan ‘Yankee Go Home’ would come true like this? The day when the ‘Yankee Go Home’ slogan becomes real would be the day of Korean Unification.”

The article urged Seoul not to increase defence spending so as to prompt a US withdrawal, and urged American voters not to choose the Democratic hopeful, Hillary Clinton.  [The Guardian]

You can read more at the link.

A ROK Drop favorite Congressman Ed Royce is of course correct that any legislation that a possible Trump presidency proposes has to go through Congress.  The only affect that I see a possible Trump presidency having on South Korea is that they will have to pay more for the upkeep of the US-ROK alliance:

Q. South Koreans have some trepidation over what a Donald Trump presidency may mean for the U.S. alliance with Seoul, such as Washington maintaining U.S. troops on the peninsula and continuing to extend its nuclear umbrella to the region. Should we be concerned?

A. Well, remember the way in which our system works. It is Congress that has passed many of these laws, and whether it is having given Korea NATO-plus-three status, which was a bill that I authored, or whether it’s [the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement] legislation, which I was a co-sponsor of, it is Congress that has passed these bills. And we are deeply committed.

Republicans and Democrats in a bipartisan way feel that this is a very important alliance for our members in Congress. For our House members and Senate members, this is a strongly held position. And it is Congress that passes the laws. Every spending bill originates in the House of the Representatives. I’m chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee; we have 44 members, and we have set these policies. I’ve been traveling here for over 20 years, and for 10 of those years, I was chairman of the inter-parliamentary exchange working with the [Korean] National Assembly. I would say I’ve never seen the relationship as strong as it is today… and I think it’s going to get stronger.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

By the way Congressman Royce has a lot more in the interview that is worth reading at the link.