Search Results for: peace treaty

This bad idea keeps coming up:

President Moon Jae-in’s speech early Wednesday morning at the 75th United Nations General Assembly contained some proposals on engaging North Korea. 

Political watchers, however, generally view the proposals, including declaring an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, as unrealistic in the current deadlock in inter-Korean and denuclearization talks.

Moon called for the support of the international community in declaring an official end to the war, which was halted by an armistice, not a peace treaty. He also proposed the establishment of a new network of countries in Northeast Asia, including the two Koreas, China, Japan and Mongolia, to promote cooperation in infectious disease control and the promotion of public health.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link but a Korean War peace treaty is something that North Korea has long sought as a way to end the presence of US troops in South Korea. If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty. 

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  

That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK if a peace treaty is agreed to. Every USFK traffic accident, parking ticket, drunken fight, etc. will become a national headline complete with anti-US activists protesting to increase anti-US sentiment.  It will be the 2002-2004 timeframe all over again and this time the Korean left will hope that the US president decides to pull out USFK on his own accord.

Heck even our friends in Canada understand this.

If the ROK Foreign Minister is to believed it appears the US will be offering a peace treaty and humanitarian aid in return for denuclearization steps:

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha referred to ending the Korean War, establishing a communication channel between North Korea and the U.S., and humanitarian aid as possible measures that Washington could offer Pyongyang for taking denuclearization steps.

“Various options are being discussed as corresponding measures,” Kang told reporters in a briefing at the foreign ministry, Wednesday.

However, on resuming operations at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) or tours to Mount Geumgang, which had drawn attention as possible reciprocal measures, Kang said such these “were not at a stage of being reviewed.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but as I have said before a Korean War peace treaty is something that North Korea has long sought as a way to end the presence of US troops in South Korea. If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty. 

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

Professor Sung-Yoon Lee at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University has an article published in the National Interest that hits many of the same theme I have shared on this site about any peace treaty signed with the DPRK:

Of course the Moon administration is going to continue to say USFK will stay after the signing of any North Korean peace treaty:

As the ongoing peace gestures from North Korea cast doubt on the future of the United States Forces Korea (USFK), a group of U.S.-allied countries ― such as South Korea and Japan ― are on track to underline the need to maintain U.S. troops here.

The controversy surrounding the USFK started making headlines here in June when U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his strong desire to withdraw or at least reduce the U.S. military presence here, saying South Korea does not properly pay for its maintenance cost.

For South Korea and Japan, however, the possible withdrawal of the USFK is a worst-case scenario to weaken their security readiness and generate a potential crack in their long-term defense posture.

The USFK here has for decades served as a war deterrent, preventing North Korea from staging large-scale military provocations against the South since 1953 when the Korean War ended in an armistice.

But starting this year, North Korea has urged the South and the U.S. to declare an end to the war as soon as possible, in what critics view is the regime’s apparent move to pull out the potentially threatening U.S. troops.

For this reason, there is a lingering concern that the ongoing peace mood and the possible declaration of the technical state of war here may result in the withdrawal of the USFK in the end.

South Korea is in a position that the USFK withdrawal will never turn into reality at least for the time being.

Park Han-ki, the nominee for the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), said last week the potential declaration of the end to the war has nothing to do with the existence of the United Nations Command (UNC) and the USFK.

“Even if the two Koreas declare an end to the war, the Korean Armistice Agreement (signed in 1953 between the North, China and the UNC) will remain in effect,” Park said in a National Assembly confirmation hearing, dispelling concerns over the possible withdrawal of the USFK.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in also recently called the USFK a peacekeeper here, saying the U.S. troops will continue to play a role for the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.  [Korea Times]

What the ROK government is saying now about USFK is intended to convince the Trump administration and US politicians to go along with signing the peace treaty.  At a time to be determined in the future the South Korean leftist activists will then be unleashed on USFK to protest every car accident, oil spill, etc. in effort to make life difficult for the US military presence in South Korea.  It will essentially be the 2002-2004 timeframe all over again.

In addition to the protests the ROK could also play hardball on funding the US-ROK alliance and make environmental compensation demands over the closing of Yongsan Garrison.  The Moon administration’s goal will be to convince the Trump administration to withdraw US troops on its own accord and not at the request of the ROK government.

I am willing to bet that Lieutenant General Eyre is saying things that US generals are not allowed to express:

A senior officer in the United Nations Command is urging caution about a declaration to end the Korean War, warning it could be a North Korean ploy to pull the South Korea-U.S. alliance apart.

Canadian Lieutenant-General Wayne Eyre is quoted as calling the prospective declaration a “slippery slope” in terms of the U.S. troop presence in South Korea.

In remarks at a Washington seminar, Eyre described the North Koreans as experts at “divide and conquer.”

Abut 28-thousand-500 U.S. troops are based in South Korea to deter or defeat a repeat of North Korea’s 1950 invasion or other provocations.

He said it needs to be questioned why North Korea is pushing so hard for an end-of-war declaration.

While noting that the recent climate of negotiations offered hope for a lasting peace, he suggested that a war-ending declaration would lead the public to question seriously the need for a continued U.S. troop presence on the peninsula.  [KBS World Radio]

I have said this repeatedly that after a peace treaty is signed the South Korea left will then mobilize to make life difficult for US troops in South Korea.  Every traffic accident, parking ticket, drunken fight, etc. will become a national headline to increase anti-US sentiment.  It will be the 2002-2004 timeframe all over again and this time the Korean left will hope that the US president decides to pull out USFK on his own accord.

Not that this took much foresight, but I called it that the 2nd Trump-Kim Summit if held would be to sign the end of the Korean War and that is apparently what it will be:

South Korea is proposing that the United States hold off on a demand for an inventory of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and accept the verified closure of a key North Korean nuclear facility as a next step in the negotiations, Seoul’s top diplomat said in an interview with The Washington Post.

The plan is designed to break the impasse between North Korea and the United States as President Trump comes under mounting pressure to demonstrate progress on the denuclearization talks. It will be one of the options available to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as he arrives in North Korea on Sunday to restart negotiations.

In exchange for the verified dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facility, the United States would declare an end to the Korean War, a key demand of Pyongyang that U.S. officials have been reluctant to make absent a major concession by North Korea.

“What North Korea has indicated is they will permanently dismantle their nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, which is a very big part of their nuclear program,” South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said during a discussion at the South Korean mission to the United Nations. “If they do that in return for America’s corresponding measures, such as the end-of-war declaration, I think that’s a huge step forward for denuclearization.”  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but closing of Yongbyon is once again just more “pretend denuclearization”.  The North Koreans can drag the closure out and then at a time of their choosing the North Koreans could kick any inspectors they do allow in out and blame the US for some manufactured reason.  Additionally we don’t even know what secret facilities they may be hiding.  Before this all happens they will have already be rewarded with the peace treaty they have been seeking.  Nuclear experts seems to understand this:

“If the Yongbyon shutdown proves to be the first bite of the apple, it might be an OK starting point, but if it proves to be the only bite of the apple, it will be deeply unsatisfying – and totally reversible,” said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Duyeon Kim, a Korea expert with the Center for a New American Security, said the closure of Yongbyon would be a “welcome” and “tangible” step but noted that North Korea would still be able to expand its nuclear arsenal and fissile material production at covert facilities elsewhere in the country.

The Kim regime wants the peace treaty so badly because it then challenges the legitimacy of the US military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?  John Bolton seems to understand this:

Hawks inside the Trump administration, in particular national security adviser John Bolton, remain skeptical of signing such a declaration out of fear that it will give North Korea and China justification to demand the removal of the 28,500 U.S. forces stationed in South Korea, people close to Bolton said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.

Kang downplayed concerns about the declaration, emphasizing that it would be a purely “political” document and “not a legally binding treaty.”

President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

If the US government decides to withdraw USFK in the future on their own accord then the Moon administration is able to get what it ultimately wanted without getting blamed for it.  It appears that Trump might play along:

Trump, according to diplomats familiar with the negotiations, is open to signing the declaration and may not be bothered by ensuing demands about U.S. forces given his long-standing complaint that the United States pays far too much to station troops in East Asia.

It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out, but considering the mid-term elections are coming up it seems this would have to happen fast for maximum political benefit if the Trump administration really thinks this is a great deal.

It looks like Ambassador Harris is being consistent in the messaging coming from the White House towards Pyongyang that major concessions will not happen until real steps towards denuclearization occur:

New U.S. Ambassador to Seoul Harry Harris said there must be “demonstrable moves” from North Korea toward denuclearization before any declaration of the end of the 1950-53 Korean War is made between the two sides.

Harris, who held a news conference for local media on Thursday at the U.S. ambassador’s residence, is making his views known only a few weeks after arriving in South Korea.

“One of the things that hasn’t happened is the demonstrable moves toward denuclearization before we can entertain something like the end-of-war declaration,” Harris said, according to Yonhap.

“I think for the denuclearization to happen, we need to see the move and I haven’t seen that yet.”  [UPI]

You can read more at the link.

The issue of signing a peace treaty to end the Korean War is one of the major objectives of North Korea and China to ultimately get USFK withdrawn from South Korea:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said he wants to bring a formal end to the Korean War this year.

“The goal of our government is to declare an official end of the Korean War this year, which marks the 65th anniversary of signing the truce agreement,” he said in an interview with Singaporean media The Straits Times, according to Yonhap. Moon is on a three-day state visit in Singapore.

After the three-year war, China, North Korea and the U.N. agreed to an armistice in 1953.

“It will provide a milestone to the process for permanent peace along with denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and a peace treaty between the North and South,” said Moon.

He added that his country is discussing with the U.S. and North Korea about when and how the declaration for the end of the Korean War will be announced.  [UPI]

Here is what Moon had to say about the future of USFK:

Moon noted that the U.S. military presence in South Korea is irrelevant to the denuclearization negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea.

“South Korea and the U.S. hold a firm position on the roles and importance of U.S. Forces in Korea for sustaining peace and stability in the Northeast Asian region and the Korean peninsula,” he said.

Remember that I have long believed that President Moon cannot publicly advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him.  However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the US could decide to withdraw on its own.  This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.

It also gives North Korea and China what they ultimately want as well, but will the North Koreans agree to denuclearization if USFK was to withdraw?  I guess we will see what happens over the next year.

I hope no one is surprised by this because this has always been one of the long game end states:

Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to work toward the eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea during their third summit in China, according to a Japanese press report.

The Asahi Shimbun reported Thursday the two leaders agreed to cooperate strategically on a shared objective of the removal of the 28,500 U.S. soldiers in the South, following the summit in Singapore where President Donald Trump described joint drills as “very provocative” and costly.

The Asahi’s source, described as well versed in China-North Korea affairs, said Beijing and Pyongyang also agreed to bide their time and not rush negotiations with Washington.

The report comes a day ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo‘s visit to Pyongyang, his third known trip to North Korea.

China and North Korea see an opportunity to ask U.S. troops to leave if and when a peace treaty is signed.  [UPI]

You can read more at the link, but you can add the Russians and South Korean leftists to this list as well that want US troops off of the peninsula.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

I’ve always been for an official end to the war w/o conditions JUST TO GET THE NORTH & ITS APOLOGISTS TO STFU. They blame everything abt NK’s behavior on the “ongoing” war.

“Radios tuned only to state channel? Because there’s still just an armistice, didn’t you know?” https://t.co/hZhdFgqnXh

— the oranckay (@oranckay) June 7, 2018