I mostly agree with Victor Cha’s assessment, however I think they will conduct short-range missile firings during the Key Resolve exercise in March like they have historically done in the past. Larger provocations such as an ICBM or nuclear test I think will be done post-election in order to avoid helping elect a ROK conservative. Plus by the end of the ROK election period, North Korea will have a better idea of what the Trump administration’s policy toward North Korea will be:
Victor Cha
North Korea is exercising restraint from nuclear and missile tests to avoid galvanizing conservatives in South Korea ahead of a presidential election, and is certain to resume provocations once the leadership crisis in the South is resolved, a top U.S. expert on Korea said Tuesday.
The assessment from Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, breaks with more common perceptions that Pyongyang is holding off on action until the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump puts together its North Korea policy.
“Pyongyang carried out two (failed) medium-range ballistic missiles tests prior to President Trump’s election on October 15 and 20, 2016. The only reason they have not followed the election with an action, we believe, is because of the domestic political crisis in South Korea,” Cha said during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, referring to the North’s failed Musudan missile launches.
“That is, President Park Geun-hye’s political downfall and the potential for a progressive, pro-DPRK government coming to power in the South has complicated Pyongyang’s calculations as they do not want to take actions that might create ballast for the conservatives,” he said. “However, once this crisis of leadership in the South is resolved (or even before then), ballistic missile and nuclear tests are sure to follow.” [Yonhap]
It just makes you wonder why these European countries instead of taking legal action just close these embassies instead?:
This file photo, dated Sept. 10, 2016, shows the North Korean Embassy in Sofia. (Yonhap)
The Polish government plans to take legal action to prevent the North Korean Embassy in Warsaw from continuing on its alleged illegal commercial activities, a U.S.-based media said Tuesday.
Voice of America (VOA) reported that the European country’s foreign ministry has sent VOA an email saying it will take additional steps to terminate the embassy’s illegal activities in line with new sanctions that the U.N. Security Council imposed on the North in response to its fifth and largest nuclear test.
The North Korean embassy has allegedly carried out illegal commercial activities by leasing part of its premises to local companies to earn foreign currency.
According to VOA, the Polish government has never given permission to such activities and has notified the embassy many times that they run afoul of international laws.
Similar activities by North Korean embassies across the European Union have come to the fore, and the EU has been discussing a comprehensive measure to resolve them, the report said.
Through the adoption of Resolution 2321 adopted by the U.N. Security Council, the North’s alleged illegal business practices were revealed.
The report also said Pyongyang is known to have made illegal profits through its overseas missions in four countries — Poland, Germany, Romania and Bulgaria — and these countries have expressed a resolve explicitly and implicitly to bring the issue to a settlement. [Yonhap]
A makeshift pier for a cruise ship at the port of Incheon, west of Seoul, is vacant on Feb. 7, 2017, although the 114,000-ton cruise ship Costa Serena carrying Chinese tourists was originally scheduled to enter it. The rupture is apparently attributable to Beijing’s retaliation against Seoul’s decision to deploy the U.S. missile defense system, called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), on its soil by the end of the year. (Yonhap)
According to the Filipino President Korean gangs are responsible for much of the prostitution and drugs on the island of Cebu and he vows to kill them:
President Duterte
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has threatened to kill Korean criminal gangs who are involved in the illegal drug trade in his country, according to local media Monday.
Duterte told reporters recently that Korean gangs will not receive special treatment for their crimes just because they are foreign.
“For those into the racket (business) of prostitution, drugs and everything, kidnapping, you will be treated just like ordinary criminals,” Duterte, who has repeatedly encouraged citizens and police to kill those involved in illegal drug trafficking, said in a stern warning.
The statement came after Philippine National Police Chief Ronald dela Rosa claimed that a Korean gang may be behind the murder of Jee Ick-joo, a Korean businessman found dead in October inside the national police headquarters. [Korea Times]
Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia Program at the Center for a New American Security, wrote in his column before the defense ministerial talks, “Secretary Mattis and his Korean counterparts are likely to seek to accelerate the deployment date of the THAAD missile battery, so that it happens prior to the next Korean election.”
After the talks, Seoul’s ministry said the two officials agreed to push for the deployment as planned, but declined to comment on whether the system would be in place before the election.
Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, said it is significant for the United States to finalize the plan at the earliest possible date as the political situation in South Korea has been unstable with some opposition lawmakers even calling for withdrawing the decision to deploy THAAD.
He said Washington probably sees the possibility for an opposition candidate winning the election, so is rushing to deploy the battery out of concerns that the decision could be overturned by the next government.
“Mattis probably visited South Korea to check the ongoing situation here and make sure of the deployment in accordance with the Trump administration’s plan to advance its global missile defense program to protect against missile attacks from North Korea and Iran,” he said. [Korea Times]
This was actually good advice which so far the Kim regime has been following:
Robert Gallucci
A former chief U.S. nuclear negotiator with North Korea said he advised diplomats from Pyongyang to refrain from greeting a new U.S. administration with nuclear or missile tests when he met with them in Malaysia in October.
Robert Gallucci, who negotiated a now-defunct 1994 nuclear freeze deal with the North, held meetings in Kuala Lumpur on Oct. 21-22 with senior diplomats from North Korea, including Vice Foreign Minister Han Song-ryol and Deputy U.N. Ambassador Jang Il-hun.
“When I met North Korean representatives for Track II discussions in Kuala Lumpur, I took the opportunity to advise them that they should avoid greeting a new American administration with new nuclear or ballistic missile tests, or any aggressive moves towards the U.S. or its allies,” Gallucci said.
“I suggested that whomever the next president turned out to be, they would not appreciate such a greeting and would undoubtedly respond with appropriate vigor and certainly not with an inclination to negotiate any time soon,” he said in a statement prepared for a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing set for Tuesday. [Yonhap]
Here is what else Mr. Gallucci had to say about what other North Korea experts have been advocating for:
Gallucci said that the U.S. should not seek anything short of North Korea’s complete denuclearization, voicing concern that too many analysts are now arguing that all the U.S. needs is to stop the North Korean nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs from growing.
Seeking such a freeze is “unrealistic and dangerous,” he said.
Entering into negotiations with the North without the U.S. declaring its goal of a non-nuclear North Korea would “appear to have the United States legitimize the North’s nuclear weapons status, and thus increase the likelihood that before too long South Korea and then Japan would follow suit,” Gallucci said.
The way I look at it is that Gallucci wants the US to negotiate for something the North Koreans will never give up. What deal could the US possibly offer for the Kim regime to give up their nuclear weapons? I have not heard one person give a realistic option on what the incentive would be for the Kim regime to give up its nukes. This is like going into negotiations with the Taliban and asking them to give up radical Islam, that is how important the nuclear weapons are to the Kim regime. Nuclear weapons is something that legitimizes and assures regime survival, just like radical Islam is to the Taliban.
A student plays the popular augmented reality game Pokemon Go at the traditional Deoksu Palace in central Seoul on Feb. 4, 2017. The palace enjoys a status as an area to hunt for Phyhorn, a rare Pokemon Go character. (Yonhap)
The Joong Ang Ilbo has a pretty interesting story about a Korean-American who was deported from the US after a number of gang and drug related arrests. He turned his life around in Korea by opening a Mexican restaurant where he cooks food that his grandmother from his third foster family taught him how to cook:
Kim and his wife, Kendra Jeong, co-run El Pino 323 in Mapo District, western Seoul, a Mexican restaurant. El Pino is the name of a pine tree near his grandmother’s house; 323 is the area code of East L.A. [PARK SANG-MOON]June 18, 2002 was a momentous day for Korea. In a World Cup match held in Daejeon, the national football team defeated Italy 2 to 1, propelling it into the quarterfinals for the first time ever.
It was a momentous day for Kim Dong-hwa too – the worst in a life of continuous lows. Kim and his sister had been abandoned by their Korean mother in infancy. As small children, they were flown from Korea to the U.S. to live with a new mother and father. The adoption didn’t take. The pair bounced around, were physically and emotionally abused. Kim ended up running with a gang in East Los Angeles. In his 20s, he was convicted of gang related crimes.
Kim was expelled from the U.S. and sent to a native land he knew nothing about. He landed on the day of Korea’s victory over Italy.
Kim recalls his first glimpses of Seoul driving in from Incheon International Airport. “It was a sea of red,” he says. The national team’s uniforms were red and fans wore red to support them and celebrate.
“It was chaos here. I thought my mind was going to blow up.
I recommend reading the rest at the link because it is a great story to read about. Kim definitely did find a good nitch to open a restaurant for because Seoul has long been lacking in quality Mexican restaurants.
