South Korean presidential spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom welcomes the North Korean government’s decision to shut down its Pyunggye-ri nuclear test site between May 23-25 during a press briefing at the presidential office in Seoul on May 13, 2018. (Yonhap)
The closure of the nuclear test site is nothing, but a show that can be easily reversed; shipping nuclear materials out of the country is a real sign of denuclearization because this is cannot be reversed:
The United States has demanded that North Korea ship some of its nuclear weapons, fissile material and long-range missiles out of the country within months after next month’s summit between the two countries, sources said Sunday.
The U.S. made the demand during talks with the North to fine-tune the agenda of the summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un set for June 12 summit in Singapore, saying sanctions won’t be relaxed unless the demand is met, the sources said.
The North’s response to the demand is not known, they said.
The demand suggests that the U.S. believes the North’s pledge to suspend nuclear and missile testing is not enough and the communist nation should do more to demonstrate its commitment to abandon its nuclear and missile programs. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but if the Kim regime agrees to begin shipping nuclear weapons and material out of their country than we know they are in fact serious about denuclearization.
Over at One Free Korea he has an interesting posting up that I recommend everyone read where he discusses whether US Forces Korea (USFK) should be withdrawn from the peninsula:
To save Korea’s democracy, withdraw its American security blanket
Most Korea-watchers will view the recent hints from both Seoul and Washington about a U.S. withdrawal with alarm, and as a grave risk to the security of both Korea and Japan. Indeed, it’s one more development that’s consistent with my hypothesis that Pyongyang means to coerce and cajole Seoul into submission, first by lowering the South’s defenses, and later by ruling it through an inter-Korean confederation that it will use to suppress dissent, neutralize it as a political and military threat, and loot its resources without the burdens of war, occupation, or cultural pollution. The Panmunjom agreement will fuel Pyongyang’s expectations of collaboration by a government in Seoul that prioritizes ethno-nationalism and appeasement over the protection (much less the propagation) of liberal democratic values. […….]
If the arc of Korean history bends toward capitulation, the continuing presence of American forces is less likely to bend it back than soothe into passivity those Koreans who still can. Our presence would only create a false sense of security and quell any sense of alarm that the Blue House is consenting to a quiet capitulation of the freedom and prosperity their parents and grandparents won at such a terrible cost. Maybe the U.S. presence is contributing to the clearest and most present danger to Koreans’ security by obstructing the concentration of their minds, by retarding their development of a confident sense of nationhood, and by excusing them from the grim burdens of sisu.
Can America do anything to bend that arc back? One answer might be to present Koreans with a stark choice and a referendum. So let President Trump go to his summit with His Porcine Majesty, and soon. Let him hear Kim Jong-un’s offer. Then, let him — and John Kelly, John Bolton, Jim Mattis, and Mike Pompeo — explain to us why those terms are tantamount to surrender, why Moon was a fool or worse[10] for agreeing to them, and that while South Korea is free to surrender itself, we would rather retrench ourselves in Japan than subsidize frivolous policies that undermine our own security. [One Free Korea]
I highly recommend reading the whole thing at the link, but I have long believed that there has been peace in Northeast Asia since the end of the Korean War because of the balancing influence that the US military provides to the region. However, that doesn’t mean we need all the troops currently in South Korea if real concessions are made by the North Koreans.
For example if the Kim regime removes the vast majority of their troops and artillery positions along the DMZ would USFK still need to have the 2nd Infantry Division forward deployed in Korea? Would the Air Force need as many aircraft stationed there to take out those artillery positions? That is why I think this argument needs to be influenced by real actions by North Korea not pretend ones, which is all we have seen so far from the Kim regime.
Here is what Anthony Ruggiero, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies says that President Trump must be prepared to do at his upcoming summit with Kim Jong-un:
Anthony Ruggiero
The Panmunjom Declaration, issued after the late April meeting between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae In, feels like a Hollywood movie remake with new actors but the same tired story. North Korea has pledged on multiple occasions to not to acquire nuclear weapons, beginning with the North’s accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1985. In 1992, Kim’s grandfather committed to three no’s: no nuclear weapons, no nuclear reprocessing and no uranium enrichment. North Korea was caught red-handed cheating multiple times on all three nuclear no’s, but still received security assurances from the United States in 2005, when both sides pledged “to respect each other’s sovereignty, exist peacefully together” and normalize relations. All of these efforts ended in the same place, with a different Kim breaking his promises and enjoying tangible concessions from the United States and its allies.
To counter Kim’s smile diplomacy and avoid his trap, the Trump administration should take four lessons from prior negotiations with North Korea, Libya and Iran. [Politico]
You can read the rest at the link, but Ruggiero’s four lessons are:
Be prepared to walkaway from the table.
Nuclear only deal do not solve the strategic issues.
North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong-un looks at a photo of his grandfather and the North’s founder, Kim Il-sung, hung at a state guest house on Bangchuidao Island of China’s northern city of Dalian in this photo captured from the North’s Korean Central TV on May 9, 2018. Kim met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Dalian during his visit there from May 7-8, the second such meeting in just over 40 days. Bangchuidao Island is a seaside resort that was often used in the past for secret North Korea-China leaders’ meetings. (Yonhap)
Remember the 12 North Korean restaurant workers that defected to South Korea that infuriated the Kim regime? Well it appears the Moon administration may be laying the ground work to send them back:
North Korea runs dozens of restaurants in other countries as a valuable source of income
South Korea says it will look closer into the circumstances surrounding the arrival of a dozen North Korean restaurant workers in 2016 after a television report suggested some of the women might have been brought to the South against their will.
Unification Ministry spokesman Baik Tae-hyun on Friday did not provide a clear answer on whether the women could be sent back to the North if it’s confirmed they didn’t want to come to South Korea.
Seoul had previously said it sufficiently confirmed the women’s free will in escaping from the North and resettling in the South. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but I am not sure what else there is to examine on this issue. The 12 defectors have been resettled in South Korea and nothing is stopping them from going to a local television station and claim they were kidnapped. The Kim regime has been using their leftist lawyer allies in South Korea, the group call Minbyun, to claim that the the 12 restaurant workers were kidnapped by the ROK National Intelligence Service (NIS). Since their defection Minbyun has been making life very hard for the refugees anyway they can.
Now it appears that the Moon administration may be putting pressure on these 12 restaurant workers to return to North Korea as well. I would not be surprised if the Moon administration is also putting pressure the other high profile defector Thae Yong-ho to keep silent during the Kim regime’s current charm offensive as well.
This is just another example of something that North Korea can do that makes it look like they are making a concession when in fact it is easily reversible at a time of their choosing:
This Reuters file photo shows an Air Koryo airplane arriving at Seoul’s Gimpo International Airport. (Yonhap)
North Korea has promised to not carry out unannounced missile tests and to abstain from other activities hazardous to commercial aviation in a recent meeting with officials of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), an American media report said Friday.
North Korean authorities recently delivered such promises to visiting officials of the international aviation body while disclosing they have completed their nuclear weapons program, Voice of America (VOA) reported, citing ICAO spokesman William Raillant-Clark.
The spokesman told VOA that high-ranking officials of ICAO visited Pyongyang from May 7-9 for a meeting with officials at the North’s General Administration of Civil Aviation.
The meeting came after the Pyongyang regime decided to halt additional nuclear and intercontinental missile experiments at a plenary session of the ruling Workers’ Party on April 20. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I guess we will see what the North Koreans get in return for doing something they can reverse at any time.
