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US State Department Says that North Korea Will Denuclearize by 2021

Notice in the below excerpt that the North Koreans at the Pyongyang summit did not agree to what the State Department has issued in their statement:

President Moon greets journalists at the Main Press Center. Joint Press Corps

“We believe a new process which is supported by all the relevant states is unfolding,” senior presidential press secretary Yoon Young-chan said.
Meanwhile, North Korea’s pledge to take tangible denuclearization measures prompted Washington to immediately extend its hand to Pyongyang for further talks. The invitation comes after weeks of stalled negotiations between the countries.

In the statement, Pompeo stated the U.S. is “prepared to engage immediately in negotiations to transform U.S.-North Korea relations.”

It said Pompeo invited North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho to New York for a meeting and asked Pyongyang to begin denuclearization talks with its new Special Representative Stephen Biegun in Vienna, as soon as circumstances allow.

“This will mark the beginning of negotiations to transform U.S.-North Korea relations through the process of rapid denuclearization of North Korea, to be completed by January 2021, as committed to by Chairman Kim, and to construct a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula,” the statement said.

The location for the proposed U.S. talks with North Korea is home to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

“We believe the symbolic meaning of the location being where the IAEA is headquartered was considered,” South Korea’s nuclear envoy Lee Do-hoon told reporters at the press center for the inter-Korean summit in Seoul.

Meanwhile, some terms in the U.S. statement did not match the joint statement from the Pyongyang summit such as the “permanent dismantlement of all facilities at Yongbyon in the presence of U.S. and IAEA inspectors.”

The statement did not refer to the “reciprocal measure” the North Korea stated the U.S. needed to take before it would permanently shut down its Yongbyon nuclear facility, as stated in the inter-Korean agreement.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but this summit really did not do anything to bring North Korea closer to real denuclearization instead it just advanced the Kim regime’s “pretend denuclearization” initiative.

North Korea Seeks to Be As Denuclearized as Pakistan

I think this article is very accurate in describing the Kim regime as wanting to be as denuclearized as Pakistan:

For seven years, Kim Jong-un has pursued an in-your-face strategy for building his nuclear arsenal: detonating blasts underground and firing missiles into the sky, all to send the message that his country’s nuclear buildup is irreversible.

Now he appears to be changing his approach, current and former American intelligence officials say, tailoring it to his reading of the man he met for a few hours three months ago in Singapore: President Trump.

North Korea is making nuclear fuel and building weapons as actively as ever, the publicly available evidence suggests. But he now appears to be borrowing a page from Israel, Pakistan and India: He is keeping quiet about it, conducting no public nuclear demonstrations and creating no crises, allowing Mr. Trump to portray a denuclearization effort as on track.  (……..)

Still, nuclear production continues unabated, satellite photographs and other evidence suggest. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has not persuaded the North Koreans to turn over an inventory of their major nuclear facilities and materials, much less declare how many weapons they possess. While Mr. Kim has blown up entrances to a nuclear test site and appeared to start dismantling a test stand for missile engines, he has not allowed in any inspectors to determine whether the actions were simply for show.  (………..)

Mr. Kim’s strategy now appears to be simple: Mimic Pakistan, which conducted a major nuclear test in 1998 and deflected demands for years that it give up its weapons. Pakistan has largely succeeded. It has a substantial arsenal, and when Mr. Pompeo visited Islamabad recently, there was little public discussion of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.  [New York Times]

You can read more at the link, but I have been saying this repeatedly that the Kim regime wants “Pretend Denuclearization” and not real denuclearization.  Pretend denuclearization allows them to keep their nukes like Pakistan in return for a peace treaty ending the Korean War and having sanctions dropped.  It seems foolish that anyone would agree to this, but there are many people in the academic class, political class, and US adversaries who think this is a great idea.

In the coming weeks we will see if the Trump administration agrees to this because clearly North Korea is betting that with the US midterm elections coming up that President Trump will want a supposed foreign policy victory.

President Moon Returns to South Korea After Conducting Trip to Mt. Paekdu with Kim Jong-un

President Moon has returned to South Korea after a photo shoot with Kim Jong-un on North Korea’s highest mountain, Mt. Paekdu:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in (2nd from R) and his wife, Kim Jung-sook, (R) pose for a photo with their North Korean counterparts Kim Jong-il and Ri Sol-ju during their joint trip to Mount Paekdu in North Korea on Sept. 20, 2018. (Joint Press Corps-Yonhap

South Korean President Moon Jae-in returned home Thursday after a three-day trip to North Korea for his third summit with leader Kim Jong-un.

Moon arrived at Seoul Air Base at 5:36 p.m., about two hours after his flight left North Korea’s Samjiyon airport near Mount Paekdu.

His departure from the North came after a joint trip with Kim to Mount Paekdu that highlighted the success of their bilateral summit in Pyongyang.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but it is expected that President Moon will next turn his attention on President Trump to get him to drop sanctions in return for North Korea’s “Pretend Denuclearization“.

Two More BMW Vehicles Catch Fire in South Korea

More bad press for BMW in South Korea:

A gasoline-powered BMW 3-Series, which wasn’t included in the latest recall list, caught fire in Yongin, Gyeonggi on Monday. [YONHAP]
BMW cars are still bursting into flames in Korea as a huge recall here continues after a spate of vehicle fires over the summer crippled the German automaker.

A BMW X5 30d SUV caught fire on Tuesday evening in Seoul while it was being driven. The 2007 version of the model is powered by diesel and is not included in the recall list. The fire did not cause any injuries.

Just a day earlier, a gasoline-powered 3-Series model that wasn’t included in the latest recall list caught fire in Yongin, Gyeonggi.

The driver pulled over after realizing that the steering wheel was not operating properly. The engine quickly caught fire once the car had stopped, the driver told a local fire station. No injuries were reported.

“We are currently looking into the case to figure out the reason behind the fire,” a spokesperson for BMW Korea said Tuesday.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

 

Tweet of the Day: Nuclear Inspections?

Picture of the Day: New ROK Joint Chief of Staff Named

Park Han-ki named S. Korea's new military commander

This undated file photo shows Army Gen. Park Han-ki, commander of the 2nd Operation Command, whom President Moon Jae-in named to lead the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Sept. 17, 2018. (Yonhap)

North Korea Continues Demands for US to End the Korean War

The Kim regime continues to advocate for the Trump administration to end the Korean War:

North Korea repeatedly called for the U.S. to declare an end to the Korean War, as a means to protect its regime from hostilities. However, the U.S. has required North Korea to take tangible and verifiable denuclearization measures first.

So far, North Korea has shut down its Punggye-ri nuclear testing site and dismantled parts of its Tongchang-ri missile testing site, but these measures have yet to be verified.

The North has now pledged to shutdown the Tongchang-ri facility completely in a verifiable manner.

There had been expectations for the North to pledge to submit a list of its nuclear weapons in exchange for the U.S. declaring an end to the Korean War.

However, the North made clear that it would not take any further measures until the U.S. declares the end of the war.  [Korea Times]

This rhetoric of ending the Korean War has been going on for months because the Kim regime wants the peace treaty because it then challenges the legitimacy of the military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon is saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed.  Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

Kim Jong-un Says He is Willing to Visit Seoul in the Future

Remember that Kim Jong-un’s dad, Kim Jong-il once said that he would visit Seoul and never did:

North and South Korea agreed that the Korean Peninsula should turn into a “land of peace without nuclear weapons and nuclear threats,” Moon said following the conclusion of his summit talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Moon, Kim said he will visit the South’s capital Seoul “in the near future.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but but if Kim gets sanctions dropped, is flush with cash from the Moon administration, and achieve a confederation which brings forth unification on North Korean terms, of course he would be willing to visit Seoul.

The irony of Kim Jong-un visiting Seoul is that the guy responsible for the murder of dozens of South Koreans and horrific human rights abuses will likely be treated as a hero by the Moon administration while the two former ROK Presidents who stood up to Kim Jong-un, Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak rot prison.

Moon and Kim Sign “Pyongyang Declaration” Claiming Peace and Denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula

This looks like more of the same from North Korea where they do things that are easily reversible to get major concessions from the US:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pose for photographs during a signing ceremony after their summit at Paekhwawon State Guesthouse in Pyongyang on Wednesday. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un agreed to halt all military acts that could spark conflict along the border, promising to end confrontational relations and the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula.

The two leaders on Wednesday also reaffirmed their commitment to a nuclear free Korean peninsula with North Korean leader Kim promising to invite foreign experts to verify the dismantling of a long-range missile engine testing site. He also offered to shut down the country’s most important nuclear facility – if the United States offers “corresponding measures” in return.

“The South and North agreed to work toward terminating any chance of war and improving the hostile relationship [between the two militaries] in every corner of the Korean Peninsula beyond the demilitarized zone,” read an agreement signed by Moon and Kim, called the Pyongyang Declaration, after a second round of summit talks in Pyongyang.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link, but notice there is nothing agreed upon about removing the nuclear material and weapons the North Koreans have already stockpiled.  They are just offering to have international inspectors monitor the disassembling of a missile engine test site and shutting down the Yongbyon nuclear facility.  The missile test site can be reconstructed later and the regime may have enough confidence in their rocket engines to not need the site anymore anyway.  The Yongbyon nuclear facility can be restarted up at a time of the Kim regime’s choosing long after sanctions have been dropped and they received the infusion of cash and aid from the Moon administration.  This is the “pretend denuclearization“.

The timing of this summit shows that Moon and Kim are likely betting that the Trump administration will want a supposed foreign policy victory before the US mid-term elections.  I would not be surprised if they do some kind of spectacle of blowing up a launch pad or some other site to further entice the Trump administration to agree to their “pretend denuclearization” strategy.

USFK Commander Nominee to Begin Congressional Confirmation Hearings Next Week

I think these hearings should not provide any controversies though I would not be surprised if some members of Congress try to get him to say comments critical of the Trump administration’s North Korea policies:

General Robert B. Abrams

Washington is set to replace the commander of US forces in South Korea amid a rapid diplomatic thaw on the peninsula, even as denuclearisation of the North stalls.

The US stations 28,500 troops in the South, a treaty ally, to defend it against its nuclear-armed neighbour, which invaded in 1950, triggering the Korean War.

General Robert B. Abrams, commander of the US Army Forces Command, will undergo a confirmation hearing next week to be head of US Forces Korea (USFK), the Senate Armed Services Committee’s website showed.

If his nomination is approved, he will succeed General Vincent Brooks as commander of USFK, the UN Command and the South Korea-US Combined Forces Korea, who has been in the post since April 2016.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.