Category: North Korea

What is the point of negotiations if the U.S. is supposed to give in to all of Pyongyang’s demands before the so called negotiations:

Former North Korean chief nuclear envoy Kim Kye-gwan said Saturday that dialogue with the United States can resume only when it fully accepts Pyongyang’s demands.

Kim, currently foreign ministry adviser, also stressed the North would never engage in a negotiation to exchange its core nuclear facility for partial sanctions relief as it did in the no-deal Hanoi summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in February last year.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Submarine launched ballistic missiles would be a strategic game changer for North Korea, but fortunately they have a lot more work to do before they can effectively field this technology:

Recent satellite imagery revealed a hidden submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles at North Korea’s Sinpo shipyard, a U.S. monitoring website said, amid concerns that Pyongyang could test a submarine-launched ballistic missile as a threatened “new strategic weapon.”

Satellite imagery taken Jan. 1 “revealed the presence of the North Korean SINPO-class experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) and its submersible test stand barge positioned beneath a recently constructed, dockside awning designed to conceal and environmentally protect these vessels,” the website 38 North said.

The submarine had been difficult to detect since the North set up the awning in an apparent effort to protect it from prying eyes, but Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery technology was used to determine what’s under the shelter, 38 North said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Kim Jong-un has not targeted and killed U.S. troops or citizens thus he has nothing to worry about, for now:

In the wake of the drone-led killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani, it remains to be seen how the airstrike will affect North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s actions.

Some believe Pyongyang will use the assassination to justify its nuclear program as a necessary form of defense and take its own path toward a nuclear power. But there is also speculation that the North Korean leader may disappear from the public eye ― like his predecessors ― out of fear of a possible U.S. attempt to assassinate him. 

On Monday, three days after the death of the Iranian general in Iraq, the North’s official media outlets carried their first reports on the incident, hinting that the country may chart a new course. 

“There is nothing to hesitate about in the face of growing hostile acts, nuclear threats and blackmail,” the Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece newspaper of the ruling Workers’ Party, said in an article. 

“We should continue to strengthen our impregnable military power quantitatively to ensure no one ever considers using armed forces against us until the U.S. withdraws its hostile policy.” 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but North Korea doesn’t need to use the Soleimani killing to justify their nuclear program when they have for years said they are not going to get rid of it, it just that no one bothers to listen to them.

I would suspect that North Korea is going to play a wait and see approach after the Soleimani killing. The next thing I think people should be watchful for is if the U.S. restarts the Key Resolve exercise that usually begins in March. If so then the North Koreans will assuredly respond with a provocation of their own.

If North Korea responds with a provocation before March the U.S. will likely respond with restarting the Key Resolve exercise. This will all play out in the February-March timeframe which gives North Korea time to see what happens with the current U.S.-Iran tensions.

I hope no one is surprised by this news because the Kim regime is publicly stating what they have been hinting at doing for months:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un proclaimed Pyongyang will no longer be bound to a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and would unveil a “new strategic weapon” soon.  

In a long-anticipated address delivered on the last day of the 5th plenary meeting of the 7th ruling Workers’ Party Central Committee, Kim unleashed a bitter condemnation of the United States for throttling the North Korean economy with sanctions, a posture that he said reflected a “hostile policy” that failed to respect its suspension of nuclear and ICBM tests in 2018.

“Under such condition, there is no ground for us to get unilaterally bound to the commitment any longer, the commitment to which there is no opposite party, and this is chilling our efforts for worldwide nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation,” Kim said.  

Kim vowed to bolster his country’s military muscle and build a “powerful nuclear deterrent capable of containing the nuclear threats from the United States and guaranteeing our long-term security,” though the “scope and depth” of that buildup “will be coordinated depending on the U.S. future attitude.

“The world will witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future,” Kim added, noting that Washington’s “impudent” stance vis-a-vis their negotiations has impelled the regime to “shift to a shocking action to make [the United States] pay for the pains sustained” by its people. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but the only unexpected about this that probably should have been expected is that Iran is acting up at the same time. In other words nothing has changed with these two countries.

It looks like Kim Jong-un is setting the stage for whatever future provocations he has in store:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stressed the “need to take positive and offensive measures” to uphold the country’s sovereignty and security “as required by the present situation,” according to a state media report on the second day of a key party conference held Sunday.  

The relatively subdued message was far from the possible bombshell announcement officials in the United States and South Korea worried could emerge from the plenary session of the North Korean Workers’ Party Central Committee, though something worse could come in the following days.  

Kim, according to a report by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Monday, delivered an address detailing Pyongyang’s agenda that placed a strong emphasis on economic development while describing “problems arising in the overall state building” that hamper growth.  

KCNA said Kim “indicated the duties of the fields of foreign affairs, munitions and armed forces” while “emphasizing the need to take positive and offensive measures for fully ensuring the sovereignty and security of the country as required by the present situation.” (……..)

In his speech, Kim underscored the idea of “intensively struggling against anti-socialism and non-socialism, strengthening the work of the working people’s organizations and tightening the moral discipline throughout society,” an apparent directive aimed at shoring up domestic support for his policies in the face of continuing international sanctions on the economy. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

Here is another opinion on what North Korea will do over the next year:

North Korea could launch maximum “gray-zone” provocations next year just short of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch to extract U.S. concessions in their stalled nuclear talks, an expert said Thursday.

Jun Bong-geun, professor at the state-run Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA), made the remarks amid speculation that the North could engage in provocative acts in a show of anger over the absence of U.S. concessions by Pyongyang’s self-imposed year-end deadline.

“Though strong provocations are expected, the North may not go all the way to an ICBM launch, as the launch could make it difficult for Pyongyang to secure support from China and Russia,” Jun said during a briefing on the outlook of global politics for 2020 by the KNDA Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS).

“But the North would pressure the U.S. to make concessions and change its calculus while engaging in maximum gray-zone provocations,” he added.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.