Category: North Korea

In my humble opinion anyone that believes that North Korea is willing to give up their nukes is not an expert on North Korea:

North Korea may still be willing to give up its nuclear weapons for the right price, but will likely wait to see how serious and committed the new U.S. administration is to diplomacy, U.S. experts said Tuesday.

“I do believe North Korea is committed to complete, verifiable denuclearization, assuming they get the security assurances they want and certainly they need because they’re concerned about regime change, and they realize nuclear weapons, indeed, are a deterrent,” Joseph DeTrani said in a webinar hosted by the Washington Times Foundation.

DeTrani served more than two decades at the Central Intelligence Agency before working as a special U.S. envoy to the six-nation denuclearization negotiations with North Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but the engagement crowd is out pushing their talking point that the North Koreans would give up their nuclear weapons for the right security guarantees. The Kim regime has one goal and that is to sustain their rule. What better security guarantee could they have than possessing nuclear weapons? They saw what happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi when they were prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons; they are not going to make the same mistake.

The best that can be hoped for is to limit the number of weapons they have and try to stop their ICBM development program to threaten the U.S. homeland. In conjunction with this, the U.S. and its allies should be working to thwart North Korean proliferation of these technologies to other rogue nations which we have seen them do before with Syria and Iran. This is a more realistic goal instead of pursuing the fiction that North Korea is willing to denuclearize.

North Korea tends to slowly build up towards a provocation cycle, so I would be surprised if they did anything bigger than what analysts are expecting:

Experts said Pyongyang may attempt to rattle its neighbors and the U.S. with a number of low-profile provocations before the May 21 summit between Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. These could involve the closure of North Korea’s own organization on inter-Korean relations or the launch of short-range missiles. (….)

Cheong said Pyongyang is expected to limit its level of provocation given the relatively moderate expressions in the statement from the North’s foreign ministry director. According to him, Kwon, who is known as a hardliner, has toned down his rhetoric by indirectly mentioning Biden as the “U.S. chief authority” and described the president’s remarks as “a blunder,” not a provocation. 

“Given the South Korea-U.S. summit is around the corner, there is a chance of one or two short-range missile launches by Pyongyang to pressure Seoul to exercise its influence on Washington’s North Korea policy,” Cheong said. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

We are continuing to see the building up to a provocation cycle by the North Koreans:

North Korea on Sunday warned the United States will face “a very grave situation” because President Joe Biden “made a big blunder” in his recent speech by calling the North a security threat and revealing his intent to maintain a hostile policy toward it.

Last week, Biden, in his first address to Congress, called North Korea and Iran’s nuclear programs “a serious threat to America’s security and world security,” and said he’ll work with allies to address those problems through diplomacy and stern deterrence.

“His statement clearly reflects his intent to keep enforcing the hostile policy toward the DPRK as it had been done by the U.S. for over half a century,” Kwon Jong Gun, a senior North Korean Foreign Ministry official, said in a statement. DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the North’s official name.

Associated Press

You can read more at the link.

We are already see the slow build up the past few months towards a North Korean provocation cycle happening:

U.S. intelligence officials believe North Korea will test another nuclear weapon or intercontinental ballistic missile this year as leader Kim Jong-un seeks to gain negotiation leverage. 

The North halted nuclear and ICBM tests in 2018 amid a brief honeymoon with then-U.S. President Donald Trump. The prediction is part of an annual report released on Tuesday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees 18 intelligence agencies.

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

It seems that if a major provocation was coming there would be more a of a build up towards it than what we have seen lately. I guess we will see soon enough what the Kim regime decides to do:

In what could be a pivotal week on the Korean Peninsula, there is interest whether North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un would opt for any provocation as the country marks the birthday of Kim Il Sung Thursday and Washington finalizes its Pyongyang policy review.  
   
The U.S. Congress is also set to hold a rare hearing Thursday on Seoul’s controversial law banning sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border, a move seen by observers as the United States pressuring both Koreas on human rights, an issue prioritized by the Joe Biden administration.  
   
The Day of the Sun, which takes place on April 15 each year, is North Korea’s biggest national holiday, and this year marks the 109th birthday of the country’s founder Kim Il Sung, the grandfather of the current leader.  
   
Pyongyang has also often marked the occasion with flashy military parades, such as one in 2017 showcasing its new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at a parade to mark the 105th birthday of Kim Il Sung. 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.

This could be the Kim regime preparing their people for an upcoming provocation cycle and whatever repercussions come from it:

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has called for waging another “arduous march” to fight severe economic difficulties, for the first time comparing them to a 1990s famine that killed hundreds of thousands.

Kim had previously said his country faces the “worst-ever” situation due to several factors, including the coronavirus pandemic, U.S.-led sanctions and natural disasters last summer. But it’s the first time he publicly drew parallel with the deadly famine.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

By not having their athletes at the Olympics this will more easily allow the North Koreans to make trouble this summer. What better time to start a provocation cycle that will get the world’s attention on you than the Olympics:

North Korea said Tuesday it will not participate in the upcoming Tokyo Summer Olympics to protect its athletes against the coronavirus pandemic, dashing South Korea’s hopes to use the games to kickstart the stalled peace process with Pyongyang.

The decision was made during a general assembly meeting of the North’s Olympic Committee held in Pyongyang on March 25, according to Sports in the DPRK Korea, a website on sports affairs in North Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but will the U.S., ROK, and Japan cut a deal to end a provocation cycle before the Olympics just to get the Kim regime to behave? I guess we will see what happens.