Category: North Korea

I think it is more than coincidence that the Kim regime decided to interfere with President Trump’s and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s golf game this weekend by firing off this missile:

Pyongyang fired a missile into waters off its eastern coast Sunday morning, the first test-firing by North Korea this year and since U.S. President Donald Trump took office, according to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Launched from Banghyon Air Base in North Pyongyan Province at 7:55 a.m., the missile reached an altitude of about 550 kilometers (342 miles) and flew 500 kilometers before splashing into the East Sea, both figures which indicate that it wasn’t an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), said an official from the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

It appears that the missile was a Rodong medium-range class meant to target Japan, according to another South Korean military source who spoke on the condition of anonymity.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

The Rodong or Nodong missile is a missile developed primarily to target Japan which is further evidence that the Trump-Abe meeting this week is why they fired the missile when they did.  With that said it is important to keep things in perspective.  The Nodong is a missile they have fired plenty of times in the past and this test firing was on a known test trajectory that safely impacted in the Sea of Japan.  If it wasn’t for the fact that it was North Korea test firing this missile most people would not care.

Here is how President Trump and Prime Minister Abe responded during a hastily called news conference at Trump’s golf club:

United States President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have condemned North Korea’s latest missile launch.

Trump and Abe issued their statements on the North’s surprise ballistic missile launch on Sunday during an unscheduled joint news conference in Florida.

Abe said that North Korea’s most recent missile launch is absolutely intolerable, urging the North to fully comply with relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Trump said that he wants everybody to understand and fully know that the United States stands behind its great ally Japan 100 percent.  [KBS World]

Here is how the ROK has responded:

The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) denounced North Korea for its latest ballistic missile launch.

Following North Korea’s missile launch Sunday morning, the JCS issued a statement, calling the military action a “grave threat to peace and safety of South Korea and the international community.”

The JCS warned that the Kim Jong-un regime will only see its collapse unless it wakes up from the delusion of nuclear and missile provocations.

The JCS said the missile launch is unacceptable and the military is prepared to immediately respond to any North Korean provocation.

The South Korean military stressed that the missile launch came in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.  [KBS World]

I think the response was handled well by everyone because on the scale of North Korean provocations this is very low and people should not over react to it in my opinion which so far no one is appearing to do.

A ROK Drop favorite Nicholas Eberstadt has an article published on the Fox News website that discusses his viewpoint in regards to what to do about the North Korean nuclear program:

As bizarre and satire-prone as the North Korean regime’s buffoonish-looking Kim Jong-Un and his servile courtiers may be, Pyongyang’s leadership is neither irrational nor suicidal. The rationale behind this confrontation would actually be to achieve a maximum of strategic gain with a minimum of actual destruction and violence.

The basic idea is to force Washington to blink in an escalating crisis on the Korean peninsula—a crisis of Pyongyang’s own making, at a time and under circumstances of Pyongyang’s own choosing.

If America hesitates or climbs down in the face of a future, stage-managed exercise in tactical North Korean aggression, Pyongyang will have undermined the credibility of the U.S. military alliance with South Korea.

The formal end to that alliance, and the exit of American troops from Korea, could quickly follow.  (…….)

Likewise more and better missile defense: the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems against ballistic missiles that the U.S. has offered  South Korea and Japan is a good step, and so is moving forward in earnest on missile defense for the USA.

As for weakening the DPRK’s military economy, the foundation for all its offensive capabilities: we should put Pyongyang back on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list—it never should have been removed in 2008. Sanctions with genuine bite should be implemented—the dysfunctional DPRK economy is uniquely susceptible to them.

The United Nations has already gotten a comprehensive report on North Korea’s grisly human rights record from its Commission of Inquiry on the situation in the DPRK: let governments of conscience now seek international criminal accountability for North Korea’s leadership.

Then there is the China question. It is by no means impossible for America and her allies to pressure the DPRK if China does not cooperate. That said: it is time for Beijing to pay a penalty for its support for the most odious regime on the planet today. [Fox News]

You can read more at the link, but I fully agree with Eberstadt’s statement that people need to understand that the Kim regime is not irrational or suicidal.  From their perspective everything they have been doing makes sense.  A nuclear deterrent ensures regime survival; their provocation cycles have historically been successful in getting concessions from South Korea and the US.  Why stop now?

I mostly agree with Victor Cha’s assessment, however I think they will conduct short-range missile firings during the Key Resolve exercise in March like they have historically done in the past.  Larger provocations such as an ICBM or nuclear test I think will be done post-election in order to avoid helping elect a ROK conservative.  Plus by the end of the ROK election period, North Korea will have a better idea of what the Trump administration’s policy toward North Korea will be:

North Korea is exercising restraint from nuclear and missile tests to avoid galvanizing conservatives in South Korea ahead of a presidential election, and is certain to resume provocations once the leadership crisis in the South is resolved, a top U.S. expert on Korea said Tuesday.

The assessment from Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, breaks with more common perceptions that Pyongyang is holding off on action until the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump puts together its North Korea policy.

“Pyongyang carried out two (failed) medium-range ballistic missiles tests prior to President Trump’s election on October 15 and 20, 2016. The only reason they have not followed the election with an action, we believe, is because of the domestic political crisis in South Korea,” Cha said during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, referring to the North’s failed Musudan missile launches.

“That is, President Park Geun-hye’s political downfall and the potential for a progressive, pro-DPRK government coming to power in the South has complicated Pyongyang’s calculations as they do not want to take actions that might create ballast for the conservatives,” he said. “However, once this crisis of leadership in the South is resolved (or even before then), ballistic missile and nuclear tests are sure to follow.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

It just makes you wonder why these European countries instead of taking legal action just close these embassies instead?:

The Polish government plans to take legal action to prevent the North Korean Embassy in Warsaw from continuing on its alleged illegal commercial activities, a U.S.-based media said Tuesday.

Voice of America (VOA) reported that the European country’s foreign ministry has sent VOA an email saying it will take additional steps to terminate the embassy’s illegal activities in line with new sanctions that the U.N. Security Council imposed on the North in response to its fifth and largest nuclear test.

The North Korean embassy has allegedly carried out illegal commercial activities by leasing part of its premises to local companies to earn foreign currency.

According to VOA, the Polish government has never given permission to such activities and has notified the embassy many times that they run afoul of international laws.

Similar activities by North Korean embassies across the European Union have come to the fore, and the EU has been discussing a comprehensive measure to resolve them, the report said.

Through the adoption of Resolution 2321 adopted by the U.N. Security Council, the North’s alleged illegal business practices were revealed.

The report also said Pyongyang is known to have made illegal profits through its overseas missions in four countries — Poland, Germany, Romania and Bulgaria — and these countries have expressed a resolve explicitly and implicitly to bring the issue to a settlement.  [Yonhap]

U.S. student David Sneddon alive in North Korea, activist says https://t.co/OQABEREwuN

— Elizabeth Shim (@GlobalAsianista) February 7, 2017

This was actually good advice which so far the Kim regime has been following:

A former chief U.S. nuclear negotiator with North Korea said he advised diplomats from Pyongyang to refrain from greeting a new U.S. administration with nuclear or missile tests when he met with them in Malaysia in October.

Robert Gallucci, who negotiated a now-defunct 1994 nuclear freeze deal with the North, held meetings in Kuala Lumpur on Oct. 21-22 with senior diplomats from North Korea, including Vice Foreign Minister Han Song-ryol and Deputy U.N. Ambassador Jang Il-hun.

“When I met North Korean representatives for Track II discussions in Kuala Lumpur, I took the opportunity to advise them that they should avoid greeting a new American administration with new nuclear or ballistic missile tests, or any aggressive moves towards the U.S. or its allies,” Gallucci said.

“I suggested that whomever the next president turned out to be, they would not appreciate such a greeting and would undoubtedly respond with appropriate vigor and certainly not with an inclination to negotiate any time soon,” he said in a statement prepared for a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing set for Tuesday.  [Yonhap]

Here is what else Mr. Gallucci had to say about what other North Korea experts have been advocating for:

Gallucci said that the U.S. should not seek anything short of North Korea’s complete denuclearization, voicing concern that too many analysts are now arguing that all the U.S. needs is to stop the North Korean nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs from growing.

Seeking such a freeze is “unrealistic and dangerous,” he said.

Entering into negotiations with the North without the U.S. declaring its goal of a non-nuclear North Korea would “appear to have the United States legitimize the North’s nuclear weapons status, and thus increase the likelihood that before too long South Korea and then Japan would follow suit,” Gallucci said.

The way I look at it is that Gallucci wants the US to negotiate for something the North Koreans will never give up.  What deal could the US possibly offer for the Kim regime to give up their nuclear weapons?  I have not heard one person give a realistic option on what the incentive would be for the Kim regime to give up its nukes.  This is like going into negotiations with the Taliban and asking them to give up radical Islam, that is how important the nuclear weapons are to the Kim regime.  Nuclear weapons is something that legitimizes and assures regime survival, just like radical Islam is to the Taliban.

The North Koreans could conduct a provocation of some kind in honor of Kim Jong-il’s birthday, but I still tend to think the timing in March during the Key Resolve exercise makes the most sense for them to conduct a strategic provocation, but I guess we will see:

South Korea’s Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn on Tuesday warned of North Korea’s possible strategic provocations ahead of the birthday of its late former leader next week, stressing the need for Seoul to maintain strong security cooperation with its ally Washington.

During a Cabinet meeting, Hwang also noted that U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis’ visit to Seoul last week reaffirmed the robust bilateral alliance and sent a “strong” warning to an increasingly provocative Pyongyang.

“North Korea’s threats of provocations — including its claim that it is in the closing phase of preparations to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile — are increasingly explicit,” Hwang said.

“Especially this month, which includes the 75th birthday of (former North Korean leader) Kim Jong-il, the likelihood of strategic provocations is higher than before,” he added. The late Kim’s birthday falls next Thursday.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

It does make me wonder if the Kim regime and the Mullahs in Iran coordinated their recent missile test in order to test the reaction of the Trump administration:

North Korea is expected to watch closely how the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump responds to Iran’s missile launch and what policy the new administration puts together on Pyongyang before it carries out its threatened missile test, a U.S. expert said Sunday.

“It has been my contention that N.K. would delay testing an ICBM or a nuclear test until they had a better read on the Trump administration. They will closely watch the U.S. response to Iran’s test,” Ken Gause, a senior North Korea analyst at CNA Corp. in Washington, told Yonhap News Agency.  (…….)

The Trump administration has shown toughness on Iran’s missile test. The Treasury Department slapped fresh sanctions over the missile test. National Security Advisor Mike Flynn warned the U.S. was “officially putting Iran on notice.” Asked if he’s willing to consider a military option, Trump said Thursday that “Nothing is off the table.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I think if North Korea tries anything I think they would do it in March during the Key Resolve military exercise timeframe.  They have historically launched their shorter range SCUDs during military exercises which I expect they would likely do again this year.

Theory #1: Kim Won-hong fired for prying too deep into the famly background of Lee Seol-joo, Kim Jong-un's wife. https://t.co/cD8TloictK

— Noon in Korea (@AllNewsKorea) February 5, 2017

Another year with an upcoming Key Resolve exercise means once again more threats from North Korea:

North Korea issued a threat Wednesday that the upcoming annual joint military drills between South Korea and the United States will result in a catastrophic outcome as the U.S. defense secretary is set to travel to Seoul this week to discuss ways to reinforce the alliance against the North.

“The problem is the South Korean government, in defiance of the atmosphere, is already making a fuss about taking the path to push ahead with Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises in March and bring in again U.S. nuclear strategic assets,” the North’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland said in its statement carried by the country’s state-run Korean Central News Agency.

“It’s needless to say what catastrophic outcome could result when such nuclear war rehearsals take place in front of us at a time our strategic status has changed,” the statement said, suggesting the country’s possession of own nuclear weapons.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the North Koreans have been quiet recently so I would not be surprised if they do a missile test or some other provocation during the Key Resolve timeframe.