The below article makes me wonder why PACOM issued a statement about the missile launches being failures before letting a full analysis be completed?:
North Korea fired three short-range missiles on Saturday — all successful — despite earlier reports suggesting failure, according to the U.S. military.
Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the projectiles fired from the North’s eastern coast flew about 155 miles. It said South Korea and U.S. militaries were analyzing the launch and didn’t immediately provide more details.
According to earlier reports, U.S. Pacific Command spokesman and Cmdr. David Benham suggested two North Korean missiles “failed in flight” while the third one had “blown up almost immediately.”
The U.S. Pacific Command has since revised its evaluation of the missile launch, now reporting no missile failures — in line with the South Korean military assessment. [Fox News]
You can read more at the link, but this is what PACOM originally put out:
The U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) also said, “Initial assessment indicates three short-range ballistic missile launches.”
“The first and third missiles at 11:49 a.m. (Hawaii time) and 12:19 p.m. failed in flight,” the PACOM’s spokesman Cdr. David Benham said in an emailed statement. “The second missile launch at 12:07 p.m. appears to have blown up almost immediately.” [Yonhap]
Fortunately it seems like no one is over reacting to this launch. North Korea conducts test launches during almost every Key Resolve and Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercise. If anything this test launch is far less provocative than what they have launched in the past considering it is being reported they are either long range rockets or short range missiles:
The office said that the projectiles are believed to be artillery rockets from a multiple-rocket launcher, while the U.S. military reaffirmed its assessment characterizing those as short-range ballistic missiles.
“As of now, the unidentified projectiles fired by the North today are presumed to be improved 300-mm artillery rockets from a multiple-rocket launcher,” Yoon Young-chan, senior presidential secretary for public relations, said in a statement issued after the NSC session.
However, the U.S. Pacific Command said the projectiles were apparently ballistic missiles. [Korea Times]
Whatever they were rockets or missiles it really doesn’t matter because the strategic messaging the Kim regime is sending is that they can attack a South Korean island with missiles or rockets and follow it up with an amphibious invasion:
Korean Cenral News Agency shows on Aug. 26 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspecting the state’s special forces engaging a simulated invasion of South Korean border islands of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong. / Yonhap
In a simulated attack on the South Korean border islands of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong, North Korean planes hit targets as its multiple-missile launchers and self-propelled gun howitzers fired in salvo and shells hit unidentified North Korean islands.
Some of the North Korean special forces also parachuted into the islands and others landed by surprise using rubber boats. The simulated South Korean targets were later enveloped in flames, according to North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but this is all situation normal on the Korean peninsula.
It looks like there is once again a path towards deescalation with North Korea:
(President Donald Trump speaks at a “Make America Great Again,” rally at the Phoenix Convention Center, Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2017, in Phoenix, Arizona.Alex Brandon/AP)
North Korea has made no provocations since its July 28 test-firing of what it claimed was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), though it has more recently threatened to fire missiles toward Guam.
President Trump said Tuesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has begun to “respect” Washington, suggesting his administration is taking a positive view on a possible thaw in U.S.-North Korea relations.
“I respect the fact that I believe he (Kim) is starting to respect us,” Trump said at a rally in Phoenix, Arizona, according to Bloomberg. “Maybe, probably not, something positive will come out of it.”
Earlier in the day, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said dialogue between the United States and North Korea could be possible in the “near future,” welcoming what he called the “restraint” the Kim regime had shown recently with its nuclear and missile programs.
“I think it is worth noting, we have had no missile launches or provocative acts on the part of, or provocative actions, on the part of North Korea since the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolution,” Tillerson said at the State Department.
“I am pleased to see that the regime in Pyongyang has demonstrated restraint. We hope this is the signal we have been looking for, that they are ready to restrain provocative acts. And perhaps we are seeing a pathway in the near future to having some dialogue.” [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but I would be some what surprised if they don’t fire at least a short range test missile into the Sea of Japan in response to the ongoing UFG military exercise.
Just another example of the lucrative weapons trade the North Koreans continue to have Syria:
North Korea has twice been caught attempting to ship material to Syria’s chemical weapons agency in the past six months, according to a confidential UN report prepared by a panel of experts. (……)
The shipments were sent by KOMID, the Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation – an organisation blacklisted by the UN security council in 2009, and described as Pyongyang’s key arms dealer and exporter of equipment related to ballistic missiles and conventional weapons. (…….)
“Two member states interdicted shipments destined for Syria.
“Another Member state informed the panel that it had reasons to believe that the goods were part of a KOMID contract with Syria.”
The UN experts said activities between Syria and North Korea they were investigating included cooperation on Syrian Scud missile programmes and maintenance and repair of Syrian surface-to-air missiles air defence systems. [The Telegraph]
You can read more at the link, but long time readers may also remember North Korea’s attempt to build a nuclear reactor in Syria that the Israelis bombed back in 2007:
This is sad news for his family, but if what has been written about him is true I can’t say I am sad to see him go:
James Dresnok in 2006. The former US soldier, who defected to North Korea in 1962, died last year, his sons said. Photograph: Alamy
The only US soldier known to still be living in North Korea after defecting more than five decades ago died last year, pledging his loyalty to the “great leader Kim Jong-un”, his sons have said.
James Joseph Dresnok was among a handful of American servicemen to desert following the Korean war, crossing the heavily fortified demilitarised zone in 1962.
He went on to appear in North Korean propaganda films and was believed to be the last US defector in the country, the others all having died or been allowed to leave. [The Guardian]
You can read much more at the link, but include a video of his two sons giving an interview about his death wearing North Korean uniforms.
The North Korean propaganda apparatus is working overtime with the UFG exercise kicking off this week:
Less than a week after backing off its threat to strike waters near Guam with a barrage of missiles, North Korea has released a video depicting such an attack on the tiny U.S. island territory.
The video – titled “What will the cost be for Americans, who are losing sleep at night?” – was released just before the start of Ulchi Freedom Guardian war games between the United States and South Korea. Pyongyang claims the annual computer-simulation drills, which kicked off on Monday, destabilize the peninsula and simulate decapitation strikes on its leadership.
A third of the way through the incendiary video, North Korean missiles are launched and then fly through clouds before coming down toward a map of Guam. Later, an image of President Donald Trump is shown overlooking a field of crosses as the words, “The fate of the U.S., with its many crimes, ends here,” are displayed in Korean. [Stars & Stripes]
Here is the North Korean propaganda video in its entirety:
Latest North Korean propaganda posters do away with their trademark subtlety, show attacks on USA, dramatic ripping up of UNSC 2371. pic.twitter.com/U0t9SLSRUh
I don’t think anyone with knowledge about North Korea’s capabilities even remotely thinks a conflict with North Korea would look anything like Iraq or Afghanistan:
Sung-Yoon Lee said the North Korean regime was more than capable of fighting back
Sung-Yoon Lee, a professor of Korean studies at The Fletcher School, Tufts University, said the rogue nation was “no Iraq or Syria or Afghanistan” and was more than capable of fighting back.
The comments come amid growing tensions between Kim Jong-un’s regime and Donald Trump, who vowed to meet any attack on the US territory of Guam with “fire and fury”.
Speaking to CNBC, the academic said: “North Korea has a need to test more in the continental ballistic missiles to conduct another nuclear test and I don’t think Kim Jong-un will be deterred by this strong rhetoric – even rhetorical bellicosity coming out of the Trump administration.
“The truth is, since the end of the Korean war more than 60 years ago, despite countless provocations and lethal attacks from the north, neither the US or South Korea has ever responded with military force.
“Why? For fear of escalation because we know North Korea has both the intent and the capability to hit back – they are no Iraq or Syria or Afghanistan, they will strike back and we don’t want to go there.”
Professor Lee also called on the US for the “proper enforcement” of financial sanctions on North Korea. [Express-UK]
Professor Lee’s comments about not responding with military force is not quite accurate. For example there has been many DMZ shootouts over the decades and most recently the ROK military fired 80 artillery shells back into North Korea during the 2010 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island by North Korea.
Long time Korea watchers are probably not surprised by the below statement from Kim Jong-un who has backed down from his supposed plan to fire four missiles towards Guam:
The state-run Korean Central News Agency reported Tuesday that the army had finalized the blueprint and presented it to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he inspected his Strategic Force command the day before.
“He examined the plan for a long time and discussed it with the commanding officers in real earnest,” KCNA said, adding that Kim offered praise for the “close and careful plan.”
The leader reportedly said “he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees,” as the North calls the Americans, and warned that he may “make an important decision as it already declared” if the conduct persists.
KCNA quoted Kim as saying “that if the planned fire of power demonstration is carried out as the U.S. is going more reckless, it will be the most delightful historic moment when the Hwasong artillerymen will wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks.”
Kim said the U.S. “should stop at once arrogant provocations against [North Korea] and unilateral demands and not provoke it any longer,” the agency said.
Analysts said Kim was trying to tamp down skyrocketing tensions that have generated the most serious crisis on the divided peninsula in years. But they also warned he left the door open to launch a missile if he feels provoked.
“By North Korean signaling it’s a clear de-escalation, and it’s also an ask for the de-escalation from the American side,” said John Delury, an Asia expert at Yonsei University in Seoul. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but the whole threat was clearly just rhetoric because the regime is not suicidal. They know full well attacking Guam would lead to the end of the regime. This backing down from attacking Guam doesn’t mean they will not launch a provocation. With the upcoming UFG military exercise they will very likely do something.
As I have said before if there are any deadly provocations planned they will be launched against a ROK target not the US. North Korea has killed and injured many ROK servicemembers and civilians over the decades to include in recent years with little to no retaliation. They know killing Americans will lead to retaliation which is why provocations directed towards the US have been missile and nuclear tests. I don’t see anything right now changing this calculus for the Kim regime.
