Category: North Korea

So what is South Korean President Moon Jae-in going to do after this latest provocation?  Just last month he said a red line for him would be if North Korea developed a nuclear weapon that could be outfitted on an ICBM and that is what the Kim regime is claiming they have done:

North Korea said Sunday that it has successfully conducted a test of a hydrogen bomb that can be loaded into its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in what could be the most powerful detonation.

In an “important” announcement, North Korea said that it carried out the sixth nuclear test at 12:00 p.m. (Pyongyang Time), calling it a “perfect” success.

The announcement came hours after an artificial earthquake with a 5.7 magnitude was detected near North Korea’s nuclear site in the northeastern area.  [Yonhap]

Here is what Moon Jae-in’s response is to crossing a “red line”, more sanctions:

South Korea strongly condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear test Sunday, vowing to push for fresh and the most powerful sanctions by the U.N. Security Council to completely isolate the communist state.

“President Moon Jae-in said the country will never allow North Korea to continue advancing its nuclear and missile technologies,” Moon’s key security adviser Chung Eui-yong said at a press briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) meeting held earlier in the day.  [Yonhap]

The Japanese Prime Minister’s word are in line with Moon’s in regards to taking North Korea to the UN Security Council:

The nuclear test was confirmed by the Japanese government, which said the North had conducted the blast, but criticism of the test was rife around the globe.

In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe slammed the test as “absolutely unacceptable” and vowed a tough response at the United Nations.  [Japan Times]

Some how I doubt the Kim regime is impressed by threats of taking them to the UN Security Council.  I guess we will see if the nuclear test will be enough to get the ROK government to move the blockade preventing the installment of the remaining four THAAD launchers in Seongju.

It appears this and other issues are reaching a boiling point with President Trump who heavily criticized President Moon over Twitter:

South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2017

It appears that President Trump is about to put significant pressure on South Korea over the US-ROK Free Trade Agreement despite the nuclear test:

On trade, the president’s top economic advisers remain deeply divided over a possible withdrawal from the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement, as negotiators from both countries struggle to rewrite the five-year-old deal.

In recent days, a frustrated Mr. Trump has pushed his staff to take bold action against a host of governments, including the one in Seoul, that he has accused of unfair trade practices. But many of his more moderate advisers, including the chairman of the National Economic Council, Gary D. Cohn, believe that such a move could prompt a trade war that could hurt the United States economy.

An industry publication, Inside U.S. Trade, first reported late Friday that the administration was considering withdrawing from the treaty as early as next week.

“Discussions are ongoing, but we have no announcements at this time,” a White House spokeswoman said in an email.

But Mr. Trump, asked during a trip to the Gulf Coast on Saturday whether he was talking with his advisers about the trade deal, said: “I am. It’s very much on my mind.”

The idea of potentially withdrawing seems to have been prompted by the breakdown in negotiations between South Korean officials and the United States Trade Representative, Robert E. Lighthizer, an American official with knowledge of the situation said.  [New York Times]

I think a country that should be concerned about US economic retaliation is China if President Trump follows through on a threat to cut all trade with nations doing business with North Korea:

In recent days, the president has said more sanctions, coupled with implied and explicit threats of military action, would motivate Pyongyang to change its behavior.

The Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said on Sunday that he planned to draft a new sanctions package that would cut economic ties with anyone who did business with North Korea.

“There’s a lot we can do to cut them off economically, much more than we’ve done,” Mr. Mnuchin said, speaking on “Fox News Sunday.” He called Pyongyang’s actions “unacceptable” and stressed the need for stronger steps.

Mr. Trump went so far on Sunday as to threaten to stop “all trade with any country doing business with North Korea,” an extremely unlikely prospect that, if carried out, would have cataclysmic consequences for the global economy. China is just one of the dozens of countries that trade with the North.  [New York Times]

With 90% of trade into North Korea going through China it is pretty obvious the only way for sanctions to work is to focus on China.  However, the consequences of an embargo on Chinese made products would have significant repercussions on the US economy until manufacturers could reestablish product lines in other countries.  Because of this it seems the sanctions on China need to be incremental to give manufacturers enough time to move out of China.

The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2017

Here is what China had to say about the nuclear test:

China urged North Korea to stop its “wrong” actions, after the reclusive said it had a successful test of hydrogen bomb that can be mounted onto its inter-continental ballistic missiles on Sunday.

In a statement on its website, China’s Foreign Ministry said China resolutely opposed and strongly condemned North Korea’s actions, and urged the country to respect U.N. Security Council resolutions.

North Korea “has ignored the international community’s widespread opposition, again carrying out a nuclear test. China’s government expresses resolute opposition and strong condemnation toward this,” the ministry said in the statement.  [Korea Times]

Judging by this statement it doesn’t appear China is prepared to do much against North Korea in response to the nuclear test.  The coming days should be interesting to see how the Trump administration responds.  It is pretty clear increased sanctions are going to happen, but will there be any military response as well?

North Korea has decided to pile on in regards to the US Navy’s recent high-profile collisions:

North Korea has used the recent fatal incidents involving two U.S. warships in its latest anti-American diatribe.

An article published in several state-controlled North Korean publications on Thursday derided the collisions involving the USS John S. McCain and USS Fitzgerald, which resulted in a combined death toll of 17 U.S. Navy sailors, and described them as a foreshadowing of America’s own destruction.

“When the American empire is sinking into the bottom of sea with the Aegis ship, strategic rockets soared into the space in the East, shaking the world with great thunder and spouting grenadine fire,” the article read, attempting to draw a link between Pyongyang’s missile tests and the accidents.  (………….)

The article goes on to lecture the U.S. on philosophy, quoting an Ancient Greek aphorism about wisdom being derived from the acknowledgment of one’s ignorance.

North Korea 'sentences' four South Korean journalists to death over 'insulting' book reviews: State media https://t.co/DAdww9e3Sh

— Joshua Stanton (@freekorea_us) September 1, 2017

That time when sushi chef Kenji Fujimoto (pictured) beat Kim Jong Il in a jetski race in North Korea (but lost in the rematch.) pic.twitter.com/v54EVmi8cQ

— Alastair Gale (@AlastairGale) August 30, 2017

Like I said before the North Koreans are using the ongoing UFG military exercise as cover for their missile test program:

In the wake of North Korea’s latest missile launch, an official said the country was justified to exercise its right to “self defense,” the Reuters news agency reports.

On Tuesday, North Korea’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Han Tae Song, accused the U.S. of driving the Korean peninsula toward an “extreme level of explosion,” claiming the United States has “openly declared its hostile intentions” toward the country.

Han said in response to the U.S. and South Korea holding “aggressive” joint military exercises in the region, “despite repeated warnings,” his country has “every reason to respond with tough counter-measures.”  [CBS News]

You can read more at the link.

 

The work to launch a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile is underway at Sunan Airport in Pyongyang on Aug. 29, 2017, in this photo captured from the North’s Korean Central TV on Aug. 30. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was on the scene.(Yonhap)

Kim Jong-un is having a good month, besides a successful ballistic missile launch over Japan his wife has given birth to another baby:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his wife Ri Sol-ju had their third child earlier this year, according to the National Intelligence Service.

The spy agency submitted a written report to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee Monday that Ri seems to have given birth to their third child in February.

According to the agency, Kim and Ri, who married in 2009, had their first child in 2010 and second one in 2013. There was speculation about Ri’s third pregnancy as she had not appeared at public events for about nine months last year.

The only information known about their children is that the second one is a girl named Ju-ae, which U.S. basketball star Dennis Rodman disclosed after visiting Pyongyang in 2013 at the invitation of Kim, an avid basketball fan.

No other information about the other two children, including their sexes, has been revealed.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the Kim regime wants normalize firing missiles over Japan and use the joint US-ROK military exercises as excuses to do so:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signaled more missile launches into the Pacific Ocean after a successful test of a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that flew over Japan, Tuesday, according to Pyongyang’s state media, Wednesday.

The Hwasong-12 flew about 2,700 kilometers over Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean. This was the first time that North Korea has fired a ballistic missile over Japan.

“The missile firing, which closely resembled actual warfare, is the first step of our military operations in the Pacific and a significant prelude to check the U.S. territory of Guam,” the North’s Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) quoted Kim as saying.

“We need to carry out more ballistic missile tests toward the Pacific, so that we can develop strategic forces more practically.”

His comments showed the North could test-fire missiles toward not only areas around the Korean Peninsula but also those near Japan, Guam and other Pacific regions.

The KCNA said the country chose Aug. 29 for the missile launch to intimidate Japan on the occasion of the 107th anniversary of Japan’s annexation of Korea in 1910.

“We carried out a bold operation, which flabbergasted the brutal Japanese islanders, on bloody Aug. 29, the day when the humiliating treaty of annexation was announced 107 year ago,” the KCNA said.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but it is clear the Kim regime feels there will be no repercussions from firing missiles over Japan and thus why this may become the new normal.  I guess we will see if the Kim regime is right about this assumption.

For North Korea to fully test its intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) it was going to have to fire over Japan and the ongoing UFG exercise gave them the cover to do so:

Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile traveled around 2,700 kilometers (1,677 miles) and reached a maximum height of 550 kilometers (341 miles) as it flew over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. The launch appeared to be the first of a North Korean missile to cross over Japan, though some rockets it said were used to put satellites into space have done so. It also appeared to be the North’s longest-ever missile test, but South Korean officials couldn’t immediately confirm.  [Associated Press]

The North Koreans have now proven that their IRBM works on a nominal trajectory which also proves they have the capability to strike Guam.  However, what I haven’t heard yet in any news articles is whether the reentry vehicle successfully reentered the atmosphere?  We will probably hear more about this in the coming days.

Here is what the Japanese government had to say after the launch:

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters that the government had a grasp of the situation immediately after the launch. He called it “an unprecedented, grave and serious threat” that damages the peace and security of the region, adding that Tokyo had lodged a firm protest with Pyongyang.

However, Foreign Minister Taro Kono told reporters that the North may have “held back” in its latest launch by not targeting the area around the U.S. territory of Guam. In an earlier threat, the North said it had formulated a plan to send missiles into the waters near the island, home to key U.S. military bases.

Kono also told reporters the government had requested that a United Nations Security Council meeting be convened over the launch. That meeting was expected later Tuesday.  [Japan Times]

Where is Hans Blix when you need him?:

Here was the ROK reaction to the missile launch:

In Seoul, South Korean President Moon Jae-in ordered his country’s military Tuesday to demonstrate its “overwhelming” capabilities, should the North decide to attack, the presidential Blue House was quoted as saying by the South’s Yonhap news agency.

The show of force involved the dropping of eight Mark 84, or MK84, multipurpose bombs by four F-15K fighter jets at a shooting range near the inter-Korean border in Taebaek, Yoon Young-chan, Moon’s chief press secretary, said.

Seoul also made public rare footage of its testing of new ballistic missiles. The state-run Agency for Defense Development’s 86-second video clip showed the test-firing of a 500-km-range ballistic missile with “improved warhead power” and that of another one with a range of 800 km. The footage showed the missile accurately hitting mock targets on the ground and in the water. The tests were conducted last week and were the last ones before the deployment of the missiles, it added.  [Japan Times]

Quite possibly the most remarkable development from this launch is the measured response that President Trump has taken:

U.S. President Donald Trump slammed North Korea Tuesday after the communist regime fired another missile in defiance of international warnings, saying “all options are on the table.”

Earlier Tuesday, North Korea fired a missile that flew over Japanese territory.

“The world has received North Korea’s latest message loud and clear: this regime has signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior,” Trump said in a statement.

“Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table,” he added.  [Yonhap]

Considering how measured President Trump has been in his public comments; it leads me to believe there must be something going on diplomatically behind the scenes.  My guess is that sometime after the UFG exercise we will find out what the diplomatic approach is.

I guess if you discount political executions, mass malnourishment of its people, gulags, military attacks on neighbors, state sponsored criminal activity, and being an international pariah than I guess yes you could make a comparison between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un:

Not to be outdone, North Korea’s military revealed a detailed plan to strike the U.S. island territory of Guam, which hosts key Air Force and Navy bases. After further brinkmanship between the two leaders, North Korea’s state-run media showed footage of Kim himself reviewing the plans. But the leader said he would not attack unless the U.S. struck first, effectively ending an imminent missile scare.

While a number of Western media outlets portrayed this as a retreat on Kim’s part, North Korea expert Michael Madden says it actually boosted Kim’s credibility on the international stage.

“This allowed Kim Jong Un to portray himself as the more experienced leader,” Madden, a visiting scholar at the U.S.-Korea Institute, tells Newsweek, adding that Kim also appeared more likely to defer to his advisers than Trump.

“Who would have thought that when we said ‘let cooler heads prevail,’ it would be the 33-year-old leader of the DPRK?” said Madden, referring to North Korea’s official title: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Trump hailed Kim’s “very wise and well-reasoned decision” in a tweet Wednesday, but Town and Madden agree that Kim has come out stronger from the latest crisis. While Trump fired off a number of statements that were widely challenged at home—including the claim that he had improved the country’s nuclear arsenal and that U.S. missiles were “locked and loaded”—Kim remained largely silent and delegated his words to lower-level outlets of his government’s propaganda, allowing ample room for de-escalation. Even his strategic missile force’s Guam attack plan included language that offered North Korea a way out from actually going through with it.

“Kim has been very careful with his words as not to back himself into a corner by shooting from the hip, like the Trump administration,” Town says.  [Newsweek]

You can read the rest at the link.