Here is what a Professor John Mearsheimer at the University of Chicago has to say about the possibility of North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons:
There’s no way North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons because they have no reason to believe the United States will implement any denuclearization deal between them, John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago well known for his realist views on international politics, said Tuesday.
“North Korea is not going to give up its nuclear weapons and China will not push North Koreans to do so. The reason is that in international politics, you could never trust anybody because you cannot be certain of what their intentions are,” the professor said in a lecture hosted by the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies in Seoul.
“There’s no way North Koreans can trust the U.S. — they give up their nuclear weapons because the U.S. might welsh on the deal,” the professor said, referring to the U.S.’ unsuccessful denuclearization deals with former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and Iran. “If you were North Koreans, would you trust Donald Trump? Would you trust any American presidents?
“I can’t think of a country that needs nuclear weapons more than North Koreans because you all know that the U.S. is into a regime change. Donald Trump has been talking about a regime change in North Korea,” Mearsheimer said.
“Give up their nuclear weapons? I don’t think so, especially as security competition heats up in East Asia. You wanna hang on to those weapons.” [Yonhap]
I think an important distinction to draw here is that the nuclear weapons were likely not developed to protect the North Korean government from an American regime change attempt. North Korea’s conventional weapons have been able to prevent any regime change on the peninsula despite assassination attempts on ROK presidents, shooting down of a US aircraft, kidnappings, terrorist bombings, artillery shellings, etc. These past incidents would have led to a regime change war in most other areas in the world, but not with North Korea because of the cost of civilian casualties on Seoul.
If Muammar Gaddafi had the ability to kill millions of people in Rome for example with conventional weapons, his overthrow by international forces would have never happened. Unlike Gaddafi and other dictators that have been overthrown, geography has aided the North Koreans by having a huge metropolitan area within striking distance of their conventional artillery, they don’t need nukes to threaten Seoul, they do need them to threaten the United States.
The Kim regime’s nuclear weapons were likely developed to threaten US cities which then increases their bargaining position during negotiations. This is what appears to be happening now. I would say that at best North Korea may sign an agreement that stops development of new nuclear weapons, but lets them keep a few on hand. What I think the US would have more success on is having them scrap their ICBM program. Without an ICBM North Korea cannot threaten US cities.
Such an agreement would still leave the Kim regime a few nuclear weapons to protect them not from the US, but from any Chinese regime change attempts. There has long been a distrust of the Chinese by the Kim regime that stretches back to the Korean War. Nuclear weapons are the ultimate insurance policy against any Chinese adventurism against North Korea. The nuclear weapons also gives them an advantage over their South Korean rivals that they can continue to use as leverage during future provocation cycles and negotiations. So ultimately I agree with Professor Mearsheimer that North Korea is not going to give up their nuclear weapons, just for different reasons.
It appears the Kim regime plans to use these three Americans as bargaining chips as part of the upcoming negotiations before the Kim-Trump summit:
The release of three U.S. citizens held in North Korea should not be a condition for the planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Sweden’s foreign minister said on Monday.
The United States has no embassy in Pyongyang and relies on Sweden, the so-called U.S. protecting power there, to do consular work, especially to help Americans in trouble.
Asked about the three Americans, Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom said: “I don’t want to have those elements involved in all of this … this is not a time to put up a lot of conditions and preconditions.”
The State Department’s recently retired envoy for North Korea said on Thursday he had urged North Korea to send a positive signal by releasing Kim Dong Chul, Kim Hak Song and Kim Sang-duk before the summit. [Reuters]
South Korean media are reporting that the three Americans detained in North Korea will soon be released. Boy, I hope they're right. Here's the story I wrote about the three men: https://t.co/Kw3NOrzPVJpic.twitter.com/7LjgVa6dEd
Here is another article about the modern day comfort women that few in South Korea seem to care about:
North Korean women experience high levels of sexual violence in their country and in China, say women who have defected. File Photo by Andrew Wong/UPI
A defector who says she was raped in a North Korean prison camp and was a victim of human trafficking in China said most North Korean women who work with brokers have experienced some form of rape.
May Joo, 37, who resettled in the United States after leaving North Korea in 2005, told UPI on Monday that even rape victims do not know the act is categorically a crime.
“That’s because [North Koreans] do not have a concept of human rights,” Joo said. “The violation of women’s rights, they don’t know what that is.
“Rape victims just think, ‘Well, I guess that happened.’ It never occurs to them to speak up, or seek justice.”
In the era of a global #MeToo movement, where women are increasingly vocalizing their anger and naming perpetrators of sexual abuse, the lack of rights protection for North Korean women is a reminder the Kim Jong Unregime — which stunned the world by offering to talk with U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in — has yet to address what may be the most pressing issue in the country.
Yoonseo Lee, 32, whose hometown is in North Korea’s South Hwanghae Province, said sexual violence is a serious problem in North Korea, but incidents of rape are more common in China.
“Getting raped is preferable to arrest in China,” said Lee, who resettled in South Korea. “Because the minute you alert the authorities, you are arrested.” [UPI]
In just a week, the situation in Korea has made yet another U-turn. It is quite normal to wonder “why is all this happening?” The answer is simple: like it or not, "Maximum pressure" seems to have worked – at least for now https://t.co/5MxL2bJLTX
There is an interesting read in the Joong Ang Ilbo about how secret talks between the US and North Korea led by the CIA have been going on for months that combined with the US pressure campaign helped lead to the current Kim-Trump summit:
Since last year, the United States has been aware of North Korea’s intent to resolve the nuclear crisis through a summit, a diplomatic source told the JoongAng Ilbo on Monday, contradicting the idea that U.S. President Donald Trump impulsively decided to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
“Using its own channels between the United States and the North, Washington detected last year Pyongyang’s idea that only a summit can resolve the issues,” said the source. He added that the North was persistent with the idea of a “top-down” approach and the U.S. leadership, including Trump, was frequently briefed about the situation.
Washington, however, didn’t pursue the idea of a meeting because it was implementing its “maximum pressure” campaign and because it was unsure of Pyongyang’s authenticity. The United States, therefore, decided to wait until North Korea offered talks.
“The United States believed that the appropriate timing would come when the North felt unmanageable pressure,” he said.
After the North decided to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, Washington and Pyongyang began secret contacts, around Jan. 20, the source said.
The contacts became more active after the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) got information that the North wanted to have a meeting with Vice President Mike Pence on the sidelines of the opening ceremony in February. The State Department was completely excluded from the process, the source said. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but this helps explain why CIA Director Mike Pompeo was moved over to be the Secretary of State. The CIA has been the lead with ongoing secret negotiations with North Korea and moving Pompeo over to the State Department will bring them someone the Kim regime may already be comfortable interacting with prior to the summit.
