The Blue House is now letting it be known that North Korea is not serious about denuclearization:
Libya’s process of denuclearization, in which rewards were provided after the regime made an instantaneous decision and completely dismantled its nuclear program, cannot be applied to resolving the North Korea nuclear issue, a Cheong Wa Dae official said Friday.
He hinted at solutions through phrased disarmament and verification, which is somewhat different from hard-line U.S. officials’ preference for a package settlement similar to the Libya disarmament process
Libya gave up its nuclear and other destructive weapons in 2003, in return for normalization of relations with the U.S. and easing of economic sanctions. Attention has grown over the Libyan case as the White House’s newly appointed national security adviser, John Bolton, has backed this model as a means to address North Korea.
“I believe it is impossible to apply the Libyan process to North Korea,” the senior official told reporters on condition of anonymity. [Korea Times]
This based off of Kim Jong-un’s comments during his trip to China that North Korea would only denuclearize on a step-by-step basis. In other words nothing has changed from past nuclear negotiations where the Kim regime seeks major concessions for little to nothing in return and then tear up the agreement at a time of their choosing. Some how I do not see the Trump administration signing up for any deal like that.
Here is what Chinese expert on North Korea, Yang Xiyu thinks about the possibility of Kim Jong-un denuclearizing:
Yang Xiyu
Yang Xiyu, one of China’s leading experts on North Korea, said that Mr. Kim was clearly trying to repair the North’s deeply strained relations with Beijing, its traditional ally and benefactor, while opening new ties with its enemy South Korea.
Even so, Mr. Yang said, that did not signal that Mr. Kim was willing to give up his nuclear arsenal, though he has told South Korean envoys that he was prepared to discuss the possibility.
“He is starting a new game where he could make concessions on denuclearization,” Mr. Yang said. “At most, he will cut the grass, but he will not pull out the roots.” [New York Times]
If Kim Jong-un meets with President Trump and does not make any serious offer to denuclearize than Kim better be ready for if the Trump administration decides to come back with a bottle of Roundup to kill the roots.
Here is the latest on Kim Jong-un’s trip to China this week:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing during an unannounced visit to the Chinese capital from Monday to Tuesday to discuss issues pertaining to the Korean Peninsula and bilateral relations. [YONHAP]North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made an unannounced visit to China from Monday to Tuesday on the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korea and China’s state news media confirmed Wednesday, an international diplomatic debut for a young leader who’s only weeks away from holding summits with Seoul and Washington.
It was Kim’s first known trip outside North Korea since he took power in December 2011 following his father’s death, and his first meeting with another government leader.
Rumors spread quickly Tuesday that either he or another high-level official from Pyongyang was in Beijing for talks with Xi, though neither the North Korean, Chinese or South Korean government gave any confirmation.
Photos uploaded online showed a vintage dark green North Korean train similar to the armored vehicle used by former North Korean leaders arriving in the Chinese capital.
Confirmation that Kim was in Beijing came only after he crossed back into North Korea on Wednesday morning. North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Kim, 34, departed the North on Sunday and arrived in Beijing on Monday.
Upon his arrival, Kim met with Xi in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where they “exchanged views on important matters including the development of DPRK-China friendly relations and the issue of handling the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” according to an English report from KCNA, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
On denuclearization, Kim was quoted by China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency as saying it was his “consistent stand to be committed to denuclearization on the peninsula, in accordance with the will” of his father, Kim Jong-il, and grandfather, Kim Il Sung, who founded North Korea. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Here is what will be the key to denuclearization talks, what will North Korea demand in return for giving up their nukes:
Neither KCNA nor Xinhua specified Kim’s definition of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, but North Korea watchers have long argued that Pyongyang’s meaning of the term would require Washington’s nuclear umbrella over South Korea and Japan to be removed and American soldiers stationed in the South withdrawn before it could consider giving up its nuclear arsenal.
This goes back to what I have long been saying, both the DPRK and China want to separate the US from the ROK and then eventually Japan. If the North Korean nuclear issue can do this, then this is in China’s interests as they seek region hegemony over Northeast Asia. That is likely why Chinese Premier Xi Jinping wanted to meet with Kim Jong-un to ensure Chinese interests are met during the upcoming negotiations with the ROK and the US and what rewards China would give to North Korea in return for advancing their interests.
According to the Korea Times’ intelligence sources, the North Korean train that traveled to China this week did in fact carry Kim Jong-un:
A train believed to be carrying North Korean leader Kim Jong-un leaves the Beijing Railway Station in Beijing, China, Tuesday / Reuters-Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during a two-day visit to Beijing that started Monday, according to intelligence sources Tuesday.
This is the first time that Kim has taken an overseas trip and held a summit with a leader from another country since assuming power in 2011.
Kim took a train for his Beijing visit, but no detailed travel arrangements have been confirmed so far. The sources said that Kim met with the Chinese president and high-ranking officials from the Communist Party of China on the Beijing visit. The South Korean and Chinese governments have not released any official statements on the rare trip by the North Korean leader.
The visit comes at a critical time when the reclusive regime remains under growing diplomatic pressure amid heightened international sanctions imposed for the regime’s continuous nuclear and missile threats. With China also joining the global drive, relations between Beijing and Pyongyang had reached a low ebb.
The unexpected meeting between the two leaders also came a month before a planned inter-Korean summit. The North Korean leader has in recent months showed a strong willingness to improve ties with the South. On the back of the rare peace momentum on the Korean Peninsula, Kim also expanded the dialogue signal by offering to hold a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but it makes sense that Kim Jong-un would meet with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping before the upcoming summits. China was one of the combatants of the Korean War and has significant interests on the Korean peninsula. China will want to have these interests addressed by North Korea prior to upcoming negotiations between the DPRK, ROK, and the US. China in turn could be influential in getting United Nations sanctions reduced since they are a member of the UN Security Council. The next few months are shaping up to be quite interesting for the Korean peninsula.
Mr. Bolton just needs to make sure that no one brings up what happened to Libya after the nuclear deal:
Washington’s newly appointed national security advisor John Bolton may seek a comprehensive denuclearization deal with North Korea as the U.S. used to disarm Libya in the early 2000s.
Bolton has referred to the Libya case as a means to denuclearize Pyongyang. The remark was made as leaders of North Korea and the U.S. are set to meet in May to discuss the North’s denuclearization.
In 2003, Libya agreed to destroy all of its chemical, nuclear and biological weapons stockpiles, and its nuclear weapons program equipment was shipped to Oak Ridge, Tennessee, in the U.S. the following year.
The dismantlement was made in exchange for the normalization of Libya’s relations with the U.S. and Europe and the easing of economic sanctions it had been under. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, however unlike Libya, if North Korea does give up its nuclear weapons they have a large enough conventional military capability to threaten Seoul that any future regime change attack is unlikely.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in (4th from L, front) and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (6th from L) of Abu Dhabi, join a group photo with South Korean officials and workers during a ceremony at a nuclear power station in Barakah, about 300 km west of the United Arab Emirates’ capital, on March 26, 2018, to mark the completion of a nuclear reactor built by South Korea. It is the first out of four reactors South Korea plans to provide the UAE under a 2009 deal that marked South Korea’s first exports of nuclear reactors. (Yonhap)
If this actually did happen the people who did it would make a much stronger statement if they were able to take pictures of the graffiti and smuggle it outside of the country for publication:
A North Korean resident recorded themselves defacing and burning images of Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Suk in February 2011. Image: Daily NK
The North Korean authorities have been put on high alert after discovering anti-Kim Jong Un graffiti defacing a major government building in the capital earlier this month.
“A person scribbled an anti-Kim Jong Un message on one of the outer walls of the ‘April 25 House of Culture’ in Pyongyang before dawn on March 1,” a resident of Pyongyang reported to Daily NK on March 19.
“The atmosphere is extremely tense now, with expectations that Kim Jong Un will soon personally hand down instructions over the matter.”
When asked what the exact words used in the anti-regime graffiti were, the source said he did not know, only that such graffiti appeared, and that in an attempt to track down the perpetrator, the authorities are conducting handwriting tests on residents and renewing scrutiny of the city’s non-official resident population.
Kim Jong Un has also reportedly ordered the country’s top intelligence agencies including the Ministry of State Security and Ministry of People’s Security to take part in a month-long emergency training course in response to the graffiti incident, likely in an attempt to strengthen the political and ideological resolve of its members. [Daily NK]
Newsweek seems to be seriously stretching what this means if they think suspending tunneling at Punggye-ri means the Kim regime is serious about giving up nuclear weapons:
WILL NORTH KOREA GIVE UP NUCLEAR WEAPONS? THESE PHOTOS SUGGEST KIM JONG UN MAY BE SERIOUS
North Korea has suspended activity at its main nuclear site, according to recent satellite imagery and expert analysis that appeared to support Pyongyang’s offers to solve the crisis on the Korean Peninsula diplomatically.
President Donald Trump’s decision to accept an unprecedented invitation to meet North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un came after South Korean officials assured the Republican leader that Kim was willing to denuclearize in exchange for peace. As suspicions arose as to what North Korea’s true intentions were, leading analysts Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu found a major slowdown at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in a report posted Friday to 38 North, a project of the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. [Newsweek]
38 North is pleased to work with @ISNJH on creating a panorama of the interior of the #DPRK's National Aerospace Development Administration's Control Room https://t.co/h5pJjl65nr
