I have been suspecting that once the US mid-term elections were over that the White House would begin taking a harder line on North Korea’s denuclearization. This meeting cancelation could be the first sign of it:
High-level talks between the U.S. and North Korea set for this week in New York have been postponed.
The U.S. State Department said Wednesday the meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the vice chairman of the North Korean ruling Workers’ Party Central Committee Kim Yong-chol on Thursday has been called off.
Without providing a reason, the department said the two sides will reconvene talks when their respective schedules permit, adding the U.S. remains focused on fulfilling the commitments agreed to by their leaders in June. [KBS World Radio]
It looks like Kim Jong-un is continuing his strategy of looking like a normal world leader by receiving presidents for state visits:
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un has received Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel with “magnificent” welcoming events, North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Monday, with Kim repeatedly stressing “the strategic and comradely friendship with Cuba.”
Diaz-Canel’s visit to North Korea marked the first by a Cuban president since former President Fidel Castro’s 1986 visit, though Diaz-Canel has traveled to North Korea before, meeting Kim Jong-un as Cuban vice president back in 2015.
According to the KCNA, Kim Jong-un and his wife Ri Sol-ju greeted Diaz-Canel and his wife Lis Cuesta Peraza at Pyongyang International Airport on Sunday.
Following a 21-gun salute from the Korean People’s Army, Kim and Diaz-Canel reviewed the honor guards of the KPA. The two leaders also took part in a car parade through the streets of Pyongyang to arrive at the Paekhwawon State Guest House, where the Cuban delegation would stay. [Korea Times]
I hope no one is surprised by this because the North Koreans have never really committed to giving up their nuclear weapons before or even after the dropping of sanctions:
North Korea has warned it could revive a state policy aimed at strengthening its nuclear arsenal if the United States does not lift economic sanctions against the country.
The statement released by the Foreign Ministry on Friday evening said North Korea could bring back its “pyongjin” policy of simultaneously advancing its nuclear force and economic development if the United States doesn’t change its stance. The North sopped short of threatening to abandon ongoing nuclear negotiations with Washington.
Still, it accused Washington of derailing commitments made by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump at their June summit in Singapore to work toward a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. It was the first time the North said it could potentially resume weapons tests and other development activities since Kim signaled a new state policy in April. (………..)
“The U.S. thinks that its oft-repeated ‘sanctions and pressure’ leads to ‘denuclearization.’ We cannot help laughing at such a foolish idea,” it said. The ministry described the lifting of U.S.-led sanctions as corresponding action to the North’s “proactive and good-will measures,” apparently referring to its unilateral suspension of nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests and closure of a nuclear testing ground. [Stars & Stripes]
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to any following the denuclearization negotiations that Moon Chung-in wants the US to drop sanctions for little or nothing in return from North Korea:
Moon Chung-in, a special presidential adviser for unification, diplomacy and national security affairs, speaks during an interview with The Korea Times at his office in Seoul last week. / Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul
Washington remains largely skeptical of the North Korean leader’s intention to denuclearize.
Amid these circumstances, a special adviser to the President stated a paradigm shift may be necessary.
“The U.S. views North Korea in the frame of crime and punishment ―- this is its social construct of reality that North Korea cheats and lies,” Moon Chung-in, a special presidential adviser for unification, diplomacy and national security affairs, told The Korea Times in an interview at his office last week.
“But if it only looks at Pyongyang through this frame there is no way out. There needs to be a more pragmatic, flexible approach to North Korea.”
Stalled talks
Moon attributes the stall in denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S. to differences surrounding when to lift sanctions.
“Basically the stance of the U.S. is that sanctions will be lifted when North Korea achieves complete denuclearization, which North Korea cannot accept,” he said.
He pointed out that while Pyongyang initially called only for a declaration ending the war, it is now stating this is not enough because Kim offered to permanently dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility in his third summit with Moon held in Pyongyang. The U.S., meanwhile, wants North Korea to disclose its nuclear arsenal and submit to inspections, the adviser said.
However, Pyongyang would be unwilling to report its entire nuclear inventory for two reasons, he said.
“First, why would North Korea hand over a list of its inventory while relations with the U.S. are still hostile? This would leave the regime defenseless,” Moon said.
The other reason is based on the inherent nature of declaring inventory.
“The U.S. states that North Korea has 60 to 65 nuclear warheads, but if it has less than this amount, the U.S. will never believe it even if Pyongyang makes a declaration. Washington will continue to call for additional reports and the process will fall through. This will leave North Korea in a worse situation than before making the report.”
This is why Pyongyang is calling for a trust relationship to be built first, he said.
“The North is seeking a non-aggression relationship through the declaration ending the war, and for the U.S. to take corresponding measures for the shutting down of the Yongbyon facility in a verifiable way ―- such as lifting sanctions,” he said. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but Moon Chung-in is the ROK administration’s trial balloon specialist to judge American reaction to proposed ideas. In the past year Moon Chung-in has stated his opposition to the THAAD battery in South Korea and has hinted at ending the US-ROK alliance. He has even said the US US should recognize North Korea as a nuclear power which is a curious position since he says North Korea is planning to supposedly denuclearize.
Here is the latest from the Trump administration on North Korea’s denuclearization:
South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, right, shakes hands with U.S. special representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun during a meeting to discuss North Korean nuclear issues at the Foreign Ministry in Seoul on Monday. [WOO SANG-JO]U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday during a campaign rally in Illinois that he doesn’t care how long North Korean denuclearization takes as long as there is no nuclear testing.
The remark was made as denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang remain deadlocked and a month after Trump said it “doesn’t matter” if it takes “two years, three years of five months” for the North to denuclearize.
Trump’s refusal to set a time frame seems to ignore North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s thinking on the issue. South Korean President Moon Jae-in said in September, shortly after his third summit with Kim, that Kim mentioned his regime was willing to give up its nuclear arsenal by the end of Trump’s term in January 2021.
“I don’t care,” Trump said during the Illinois rally. “I tell my people, I couldn’t care how long, as long as there’s no testing, as long as there’s no nuclear testing.”
Trump boasted of his “great relationship” with Kim and how both sides were happy with each other, rebuking critics who say his administration isn’t moving fast enough to get the denuclearization job done.
“North Korea’s going to be a great economic place,” Trump said, again painting a rosy future for the North if it gives up its nuclear weapons. “The location is so good between Russia and China and South Korea.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
I always figured that the Trump administration would try and keep the perception of progress going with North Korea up to the mid-term elections. Limiting damaging information leaks seems to be part of this strategy:
The Trump administration is drastically cutting back on who on Capitol Hill gets to see intelligence reports on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, according to multiple congressional sources.
Under the new rules, only each party’s House and Senate leaders, along with chairs and ranking members of foreign relations and intelligence committees, get direct access to the reports. It is a drastic change from previous distribution of North Korea related intelligence reports which, for the most part, gave access to the entire committees and the staffers on those committees.
The fear on Capitol Hill is that the limited distribution, which has been implemented over the past few weeks, will leave Congress largely in the dark when it comes to what U.S. intelligence has collected about North Korea’s motivations and nuclear developments. Some on the Hill, citing President Trump’s outreach to North Korea, worry that the White House is limiting the flow of information because the reports might indicate Pyongyang is accelerating its nuclear program. [CBS News]
