I am sure South Korea will assist with opening the Strait of Hormuz by writing strongly worded letters to Tehran:
South Korea is considering various options, including playing diplomatic, humanitarian or military roles, to contribute to international efforts to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a senior foreign ministry official said Tuesday.
You can read more at the link.
Despite Korea’s dependence on oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz I would be very surprised if Korea takes any leading role in an international force to police it:
President Lee Jae Myung will attend talks led by Britain and France this week over freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Cheong Wa Dae said Thursday.
The virtual gathering, to be hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer late Friday (Seoul time), aims to ensure free and safe passage through the crucial waterway.
“As the freedom and security of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz serve the interests of all parties and are vital to our national interests, we are continuing efforts to work in solidarity with countries that share similar positions,” a senior official told reporters.
Lee is preparing a message addressing energy supply chains, Seoul’s stance on the Middle East situation, and the importance of international solidarity to ensure free passage through the crucial shipping route, the official said.
You can read more at the link.
The best thing about this oil is that it will all be shipped to South Korea without having to transit the Strait of Hormuz:
South Korea has secured 273 million barrels of crude oil by the end of this year from four nations in the Middle East, presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik said Wednesday.
Kang, who returned home from his eight-day trip to Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kazakhstan, said the nation also secured 2.1 million tons of naphtha by the end of this year.
“The 273 million barrels of crude oil, based on last year’s consumption levels, are sufficient to sustain the economy for more than three months under normal operating conditions without the need for additional emergency measures,” Kang told reporters.
You can read more at the link.
An early sign that the blockade is already working:
South Korea has no plans to pay Iran to get its stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, its top diplomat said Wednesday, noting that it does not intend to take any action that would run counter to the U.S.-led blockade of the shipping lane.
Foreign Minister Cho Hyun made the remarks during a parliamentary session, in response to a lawmaker’s question about whether paying Iran a toll for transit would conflict with the U.S. Navy-led blockade aimed at preventing Tehran from taking control of the waterway.
“At this stage, we have no plans to pay Iran any form of compensation or to take any action that would run counter to what the United States has stated,” Cho told the National Assembly.
You can read more at the link.
This is something that should have been done from the start of the war, but the President decided to let Iran keep selling oil to keep prices down. This is one of those conflicts where you have to be all in or you don’t do it at all:
The United States began a naval blockade of Iranian ports on Monday, ratcheting up pressure on the Islamic Republic after Washington and Tehran failed to reach an agreement during their peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend.
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed during a press availability that the blockade was in progress, noting that Iran hopes to make a deal with the U.S. “very badly”, a remark that raised hopes for diplomatic efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
In an advisory, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a British entity, said that effective from 10 a.m. (Washington time), “maritime access restrictions” were being enforced for Iranian ports and coastal areas, including locations along the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.
The blockade in the strategically crucial strait appears aimed at putting pressure on Iran, as it could restrict Tehran’s ability to export oil, its key source of revenue. Iran has used the waterway as a vital source of strategic leverage to seek U.S. concessions during the war.
South Korea for their part has sent diplomats to Tehran trying to get a pledge from them to not attack their ships:
Seoul’s special envoy to Iran, Chung Byung-ha, has met senior officials in Tehran to discuss the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz — where South Korean vessels and seafarers remain stranded — as well as broader bilateral issues, a Korean Foreign Ministry official who requested anonymity said in an afternoon closed-door briefing.
Chung, who arrived over the weekend, is expected to convey Seoul’s position on ensuring the safety of South Korean nationals and securing passage through the strait, while holding consultations with Iranian counterparts. His meetings are likely to include talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, though details have not been disclosed.
“(Chung) will deliver our position on the bilateral relations with Iran, ensuring the safety of South Korean nationals in Iran and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, and consult with them on those matters,” the Foreign Ministry official said.
The fact that South Korea is not announcing the results of the consultations must mean that Iran has denied free passage of their ships. From Iran’s point of view South Korea is selling missile defense systems to the Gulf Arab states which effectively puts the ROK on the opposing side of this conflict.
If this toll through the Strait of Hormuz is allowed to stand it will set a precedent for other global strategic waterways. What is to stop the Houthis to next charge a toll to pass through the Red Sea? Malaysia and Indonesia could charge tolls to use the Strait of Malacca as well if this is the new precedent. The U.S. has long advocated for freedom of navigation and the Hormuz toll is a direct assault on this concept:
Iran has announced plans to impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire with the U.S., and the South Korean government has analyzed that this measure, if implemented, could raise domestic oil prices by approximately 0.5%. Yang Gi-wook, Director of the Industrial Resources Security Office at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources, stated during a briefing by the “Middle East War Response Headquarters” on the 9th, “If tolls are added to the current international oil price level of $90–100 per barrel, a rise of about 1% could occur. Considering that roughly half of domestic gasoline prices consist of taxes, the final consumer price is expected to increase by approximately 0.5%.” However, he added, “It is difficult to specify a response strategy as both the imposition of tolls and their method remain uncertain.”
You can read more at the link.
South Korea is definitely in a tough spot and how they maneuver through it should be done in close coordination with Japan to create a more united front with another key U.S. ally:
Victor Cha
U.S. President Donald Trump could hit back at Korea by imposing more tariffs if Seoul secures an exemption from Iran for its ships’ transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. expert said Wednesday.
Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made the remarks at a forum, noting that Seoul is faced with having to make the “least bad choice” among difficult options regarding its vessels stranded in shipping routes effectively blocked by Tehran.
Cha noted that Seoul engaging with Tehran to get its vessels through the waterway would be one of the less favorable options, a move that could “risk upsetting” Trump.
You can read more at the link.
I think the only way that Iran turns into a shattered Syria like state that Israel is pushing for is if the regime’s oil wealth is stopped. However, doing that would likely risk retaliation against the oil infrastructure of their Gulf neighbor countries. Would the U.S. risk the Gulf Arab oil infrastructure being destroyed to take down the regime? I guess we will see. However, if the oil is allowed to flow the IRGC will use the vast majority of those funds to rearm as quickly as possible:
As the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran prolongs, concerns are growing that Iran could transform into a “giant North Korea.” There are significant fears that Iran might transition into a closed military state centered around its military elite following a large-scale U.S. attack.
Foreign Policy (FP), a U.S. diplomatic and security-focused media outlet, recently highlighted this scenario in an article titled “Does Iran’s Future Look Like Cuba, Syria or North Korea?” FP noted, “Arab Gulf states are increasingly leaning toward effectively quarantining Iran until it becomes something akin to Cuba: diminished and rigid but contained.” In contrast, Israel aims to collapse the Iranian regime to eliminate its regional influence, making it resemble “civil-war era Syria,” according to FP’s analysis. However, concerns arise that Iran is heading toward the worst-case scenario: becoming a “North Korea-style state.” FP warned, “The reality, however, is that both approaches might not turn out the way their advocates hope,” adding, “There is a strong risk that Iran will end up not like Cuba or Syria, but instead like North Korea—a garrison state that survives by becoming more dangerous, not less.”
You can read more at the link, but it appears the U.S. is going to adopt the lawnmower strategy Israel has used for years against Hamas and Hezbollah. Bomb Iran every few years to diminish their military capacity every time they rebuild it to a point they can threaten their neighbors. It won’t be popular having to continually go back and bomb them, but the only alternative is to allow them to reconstitute their drone and missile programs.
The IRGC has been attempting to build enough missiles and drones to hold its neighbors and Europe hostage in order to build a nuclear bomb. The attack on Diego Garcia shows they have developed a missile to attack Europe. Would the U.S. take action against Iran in the future if ballistic missiles are a threat to rain down on London, Paris, and Berlin along with Israel and the Gulf Arab nations?
This is essentially what the U.S. faced with North Korea in the 1990’s. Bill Clinton decided not to take military action to stop North Korea’s nuclear program because of the risk of an artillery attack on Seoul where millions of people and South Korea’s economy is centered around. We are now living with the consequences of that decision to this day.
If birth right citizenship gets overturned it would probably be the singularly most important way to greatly reduce illegal immigration into the U.S. This is because it would end a major incentive illegal immigrants have to come to America to include Koreans looking to have their kids avoid mandatory military service with American citizenship:
With President Donald Trump attending, the Supreme Court on Wednesday heard arguments over the legality of his directive to restrict birthright citizenship in the U.S., a contentious part of his efforts to curb immigration that would upend long-held understanding of a key constitutional provision.
Some of the justices including conservative Chief Justice John Roberts asked tough questions of the Justice Department lawyer defending Trump’s action.
The justices were hearing the Trump administration’s appeal of a lower court’s decision that blocked his executive order directing U.S. agencies not to recognize the citizenship of children born in the United States if neither parent is an American citizen or legal permanent resident, also called a “green card” holder.
You can read more at the link.
If you believe what President Trump is saying, it is looking more and more like the U.S. will end the war without re-opening the Strait of Hormuz:
U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that South Korea was “not helpful” to the United States, noting the presence of American troops “in harm’s way” in the Asian country “right next to a nuclear force,” as he highlighted the need for countries to secure the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Trump made the remarks during an annual Easter luncheon at the White House, singling out South Korea, China, Japan and France as he reiterated that those countries that rely on the strait for energy imports should act to help reopen the waterway, a crucial oil shipping route.
“Let the European countries do it. Let South Korea, who was not helpful to us, by the way. … You know, we only have 45,000 soldiers in harm’s way over there, right next to a nuclear force. Let South Korea do it,” he said, referring to the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea and North Korea’s nuclear force.
“Let Japan do it. They get 90 percent of the oil from the strait. Let China do it. Let them all do it,” he added.
You can read more at the link, but if I had to guess the U.S. casualty projections to re-open the Strait are not worth it to Trump in a mid-term election year. Due to the U.S.’s ample energy supplies, Americans are not going to experience fuel shortages like much of the rest of the world and this gives Trump the opportunity to push the problem on to nations reliant on Gulf energy sources to solve.
