The report doesn’t say whether the changes were made after or before the recent cross border incident that led to a negotiated settlement between the North and the South. If these changes were made afterwards maybe Kim Jong-un was not aware of the operation to plant landmines on the southern side of the DMZ? It seems unlikely to me though because that would be something pretty audacious for a military commander to think he could get away with doing something like that without consulting the regime inner circle first:
Kim Jong Un, the querulous North Korean leader, said the recent standoff with South Korea was resolved not through negotiation but “thanks to the tremendous military muscle” of the country’s nuclear weapons.
Some analysts have suggested that Pyongyang’s recent eagerness to hold talks with Seoul could be a sign of domestic vulnerability for Kim, whose official titles include first chairman of the National Defense Commission and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army.
But according to North Korea’s version of events, last weekend’s standoff with South Korea was a sign of the former’s strength.
“We protected the dignity and sovereignty of the country, the gains of the revolution and the happiness of the people by our own efforts amid the tempest of the history without anybody’s support and sympathy,” Kim told officials at a meeting to analyze and review the “revolutionary measures” the regime had taken over the past week, according to the country’s official Korean Central News Agency.
The news report, published Friday, also said that the 30-something leader had dismissed some members of the Central Military Commission, which is responsible for the Korean Workers’ Party’s military policies, and appointed new ones. But it did not say which officials had been replaced. The dismissals come after an extended period of sometimes-brutal personnel changes in North Korea, notably Kim’s execution of his defense minister this year. [Stars and Stripes]
Like I suspected the ROK offered the North Koreans some significant financial rewards if they apologized for the landmine attack. basically what his comes down to is that two ROK soldiers had to have their legs blown off so the ROK could pay off the North Koreans to apologize. This is another example of why the North Koreans commit provocations, because they work:
A landmark inter-Korean deal to resolve heightened cross-border tensions could give fresh momentum to bilateral economic cooperation that has been stalled due to strained relations between the archrivals, analysts said Tuesday.
The agreement, reached early Tuesday after marathon negotiations, defused the military standoff triggered by a land-mine explosion that maimed two South Korean soldiers on Aug. 4, and an artillery exchange on Thursday.
Excluding the joint industrial complex in Kaesong North Korea, inter-Korean economic projects have been in limbo since South Korea imposed a blanket ban on economic cooperation and personnel exchanges in March 2010, in retaliation for the North’s sinking of a South Korean naval vessel near the western maritime border.
Observers said the overnight breakthrough could make it possible for the two sides to restart negotiations on suspended economic cooperation projects and possibly lifting the sanctions.
The latest deal does not mention lifting Seoul’s comprehensive sanctions although it calls for high-level talks to take place as soon as possible which can touch on broader outstanding issues.
North Korea watchers speculated that Pyongyang raised the issue of lifting sanctions and the resumption of tours to the Mount Kumgang resort on its southeast coast, which were halted in July 2008 when a South Korean female tourist was shot dead by a North Korean soldier.
Seoul demanded Pyongyang allow a renewed on-site probe into the death of the tourist and take measures to ensure the safety of its citizens. Pyongyang, however, claimed it had done everything it could, including a verbal promise by then leader Kim Jong-il to make sure no such tragedy would happen again. [Yonhap]
South Korean President Park Geun-hye has dropped everything on her schedule to meet and encourage the ROK military in the wake of the recent exchange of fire on the DMZ with the North Koreans:
President Park Geun-hye, Defense Minister Han Min-koo (left) and National Security Office chief Kim Kwan-jin visit the headquarters of the Third Army in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, Friday. Cheong Wa Dae
Following the exchange of fire, Kim presided over an emergency meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Military Commission, instructing frontline units to switch to a “wartime state” and fully arm themselves starting from 5 p.m. on Thursday, state media said.
The North last made the “quasi-state of war” declaration in November 2010 when it shelled a South Korean border island in the West Sea.
“Military commanders were urgently appointed and dispatched for operations to strike the enemy’s means of psychological warfare and quell possible counteraction if it did not stop the propaganda broadcasts,” the official Korean Central Television reported.
President Park Geun-hye urged the South Korean military to stay ready to react immediately to any further provocation and blasted Pyongyang for churning out security threats during her visit to a field army command in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province.
The trip, which came after she shelved her scheduled tour to southern parts of the country, was designed to examine its readiness posture and encourage soldiers, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Min Kyung-wook said. She was briefed by commanders there on their plans to respond to potential attacks and the current movements by the North Korean military.
Presiding over a video conference with operational commanders later in the day, Defense Minister Han Min-koo also called for airtight readiness and effective situation management, saying that after the deadline the North may stage a provocation “in any way.” [Korea Herald]
The ROK has no plans to give into North Korean demands which the Kim regime assuredly knew they would not. The demand is just being made to justify a future provocation. It appears the leading theory is that they will fire missiles into the Sea of Japan or a cyberattack of some kind in the near term. It will probably be both since it appears the North Koreans are already gearing up to fire missiles:
Separately, North Korea seems to be gearing up to fire missiles, an official said, a move that could be seen as a show of force against South Korea amid escalating tensions.
“The North is showing signs of shooting off a Scud missile near Wonsan and a Rodong missile in North Pyongan Province,” the official said, citing detection results of its joint radar system with the United States. [Yonhap]
Besides launching another DMZ provocation, a naval engagement in the Yellow Sea is always a possibility, but I don’t think they would try this now because the ROK military’s guard is way up right now. However, they could try and fire an anti-ship missile from their mainland somewhere into the Yellow Sea near at ROK vessel. I don’t think they would actually try and sink a ROK ship like they did the Cheonan because it would be too easy to pin the blame on them. Remember they have never admitted to sinking the Cheonan. They have fired these anti-ship missiles into the Sea of Japan before so firing them into the congested waters of the Yellow Sea would be a pretty good provocation. Another, but unlikely provocation is to detain someone at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They have done this before and have set conditions to do it again, but I think at this point another provocation using Kaesong would probably lead to its closure which has been a cash cow for the Kim regime:
Meanwhile, South Korea said it has measures to ensure the safety of its nationals who are temporarily staying in the North.
It said it has put a partial ban on the entry of its nationals into an inter-Korean joint factory park in the North’s western border city of Kaesong.
The factory park, the last remaining symbol of inter-Korean cooperation, is home to 120 small South Korean factories producing garments, shoes, watches and other labor-intensive goods. More than 54,000 North Koreans work in the complex. [Yonhap]
I think this is all leading to the bigger provocation coming up which is when they try and do their expected October space launch. The launch would once again violate United Nations sanctions and be a major media event where once again North Korea will be dominating the headlines. The bottom line is that I don’t expect to see North Korea out of the news anytime soon; what they plan to do to dominate the headlines is still open to debate.
What does everyone else think the Kim regime will try to do in the coming weeks?
According to the below article there is not much that the South Koreans can do in regards to the recent mine attack that wounded two South Korean troops. I disagree, just for starters the ROK government should have Park Sang-hak and his team on speed dial to go launch some of their propaganda balloons with DVDs of “The Interview” on them. Announcing government funding for defector radio stations is another option. The biggest trump card the ROK government has is to end the near-slave labor operation going on at Kaesong that is a major Kim regime cash cow:
South Korea announced a series of measures this week aimed at deterring another North Korean land mine attack, from broadcasting anti-Pyongyang messages across the Demilitarized Zone to changing patrol times for its soldiers.
But in a climate where military officials fear that even the smallest exchange of fire could escalate into a full-blown conflict, there might be little Seoul will do to punish the North or discourage further provocations, some experts say.
Two South Korean soldiers were maimed Aug. 4 after triggering several recently planted land mines during a routine morning patrol at the DMZ, near Paju. The blasts happened about 1,440 feet south of the Military Demarcation Line, which marks the actual border between the two Koreas. One of the soldiers lost his legs, and the other lost a foot.
The land mine attack, while tragic, is a relatively minor incident in the larger picture of inter-Korean relations, and the appropriate response for Seoul is unclear, said Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.
“It’s this real kind of gray area that doesn’t rise to the level of triggering some kind of military counter attack,” he said.
South Korean forces will vary patrol times so they cannot be tracked by North Korea, and will increase the number of search and reconnaissance missions along the DMZ. Troops will also conduct a sweep for additional land mines this month, and will toughen engagement rules for North Korean troops who cross into the South’s territory, according to South Korean media reports Tuesday. [Stars & Stripes]
You expect something wacky like creating your own timezone from the North Koreans, but the fact that politicians in South Korea want to inconvenience their own citizens just to stick it to Japan is even wackier in my opinion:
North Korea is its own world in many ways. Now, it is getting its own time zone to match.State news agency, KCNA, has announced that North Korea will set its clocks back by 30 minutes to “Pyongyang time” on August 15–the 70th anniversary of liberation from Japan.That will reset the time to GMT+08:30, as it was before Japanese colonization.
“The wicked Japanese imperialists committed such unpardonable crimes as depriving Korea of even its standard time while mercilessly trampling down its land with 5 000 year-long history and culture and pursuing the unheard-of policy of obliterating the Korean nation,” KCNA reported on Friday.North Koreans already have their own calendar. Instead of counting from the birth of Christ, they count from the birth of founding leader, Kim Il Sung. Kim was born in 1912 — known in North Korea as Juche 1, making this year Juche 104.The new time will put Pyongyang half an hour behind Tokyo and Seoul. (………………….)
South Korea has made similar moves in the past. Its time zone was set at GMT+08:30 — the new Pyongyang time — between 1954 and 1961.There have been proposals to move it back again over the past few years — most recently in 2013.Defector-turned-ruling-party politician, Cho Myung-chol, introduced a bill in parliament to make the change.He told CNN resetting the time zone is part of regaining South Korea’s sovereignty and getting rid of the remaining vestiges of Japanese imperialism. [CNN via reader tip]
You know the propaganda balloon campaign continues to be effective when the group continues to get this kind of reaction from the Kim regime:
North Korea threatened to attack South Korean activists, Monday, for sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets over the inter-Korean border.
The threat by the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea (CPRK) came three days after a conservative civic group flew about 10,000 leaflets to the North from Cheorwon, Gangwon Province, located close to the border.
The leaflets featured an “execution list after Korean unification” that included North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the North’s party officials and military brass, along with Kim’s wife, Ri Sol-ju.
“We regard the leaflet distribution as an apparent act of war and are running out of patience with it. Such a small action can lead to the destruction of the group,” the CPRK said.
“The leaflets carry unacceptable and offensive crap. It is another military provocation.” [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but these balloon launches are one of the few ways that the South Koreans are able to get through the information blockade that insulates much of the interior of North Korea. The border area have long been the source of the majority of the refugees due to the proximity of the border and the fact that outside information from China is available via radio and cell phone towers.
Instead of trying to use claims of setting up a Social Security system for the Kaesong workers, the North Korean negotiators now appear to be trying to make use of the minimum wage fight in the US and claim it is their sovereign right to wage the minimum wage for Kaesong workers:
The two Koreas are holding talks to settle the dispute over the wages of North Korean workers employed at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex in the North.
The sixth round of talks of a joint inter-Korean committee in charge of running the complex is under way at the complex in the North Korean border city.
During a plenary session Thursday morning, the two Koreas exchanged opinions on the wage dispute, issues concerning border passage, customs and communications as well as improving working conditions at the factory zone.
In the afternoon, Lee Sang-min from the Unification Ministry, heading the talks, and his North Korean counterpart Pak Chol-su, a vice director of the North’s special economic zone development department, held two chief delegates’ meetings and discussed the wage concern.
A Unification Ministry official in Seoul said the mood in the talks was not bad, but results of the meeting are not yet known.
Before the morning session began Thursday, Lee welcomed news of Pak expressing hope that the day’s meeting would serve as “welcome rain” for cross-border relations.
The North Korean official went on to metaphorically say that recent downpours have in fact considerably helped harvest conditions in the North.
He said that he believes the latest talks can produce good results just like a long awaited rain after a drought for business people hoping for the success of the complex and all Koreans longing to see inter-Korean relations improve.
The Thursday talks are known to have particularly focused on the contentious issue of revising labor regulations including a five percent cap on minimum wage growth.
North Korea contends setting the minimum wage is a sovereign right while the South calls for an inter-Korean agreement on the issue per the previous rule. [KBS World Radio]
I guess we will see if this inter-Korean project will end up just like all the other ones, as a negotiating chip to increase the wealth of the Kim regime while doing little to nothing for average North Koreans:
South Korea’s unification minister expressed hope on Sunday that the reconnection of the railway linking Seoul and the North Korean city of Wonsan will be a “starting point” for inter-Korean cooperation down the road.
The 223.7-km-long railway was built in 1914 and served as a major supply route from Seoul to Wonsan before it was severed during the 1950-53 Korean War.
The Seoul government earlier said that it will start construction of the 11.7-km-long section of the railway running through Gangwon Province next month in commemoration of the 70th anniversary of its independence from Japan.
“I want to see the railways between the two Koreas be reconnected as quickly as possible,” Unification Minister Hong was quoted as saying during his visit to the area. “I want it to be a major starting point.”
“Railways are actual linking channels for the two Koreas and I wish to discuss many other issues and cooperative projects based on this railway reconnection business,” he said. [Yonhap]
