Category: China

China’s AIIB and the US Reputation Risk http://t.co/tHLizY2tfg pic.twitter.com/VmBd0sNfgI

— The Diplomat (@Diplomat_APAC) April 16, 2015

Is China getting ready to pull off a “Crimea” like scenario in Asia?

https://twitter.com/ThielsChristian/status/586261219578904576

Chinese taxi drivers drank pesticide in a mass suicide attempt at a protest in Beijing.

That is what the below Diplomat article discusses which is based on a Chinese news media article:

During the Deng Xiaoping era, China’s foreign policy was characterized by the phrase “tao guang yang hui,” generally translated as “keeping a low profile.” In recent years, however, observers have begun to question whether this strategy still holds sway in Chinese diplomacy, particularly in light of Xi Jinping’s recent exhortation for China to practice “major power diplomacy.”

Chinese media just turned that debate over on its head, by positing that it’s Washington, rather than Beijing, that is entering a period of “low profile” foreign policy today.

An article in Xinhua, published online Wednesday, posits that the U.S. has turned inward and is entering its own period of tao guang yang hui. The article argues that America’s “confidence and power” to “interfere” in external affairs has weakened over the past six years, with President Barack Obama preoccupied with domestic economic development. The lede cites Obama’s philosophy of “don’t do stupid stuff” as evidence.

The piece interviews Chinese experts who agree, as Xinhua puts it, that the U.S. inward-focus is growing “more and more obvious” and that “for the last two years of Obama’s term, [the U.S.] may enter an American-style period of ‘keeping a low profile.’”

One of the experts who contributed to the debate is scholar Wang Jisi of Peking University, who notes that although the U.S. isn’t in an irreversible decline, “U.S. influence on global political affairs has obviously declined.” The reason for this, Wang says, is a combination of weakening influence and power among U.S. allies (notably in Europe and Japan) and the rise of developing countries like China. Wang and another expert, Xu Changyin of Xinhua’s own World Affairs Research Center, both argue that Obama will try to focus on internal economic issues for the remainder of his term.  [The Diplomat]

You can read the rest at the link, but one way to look at this is that the Chinese government knows that now is the time to push hard on issues of contention knowing the US will do little about it.  An example of this appears to be happening in the South China Sea where the Chinese continue to claim sovereignty over the entire sea while the US pushes allies in the region to do more.  The South China Sea issue is actually small compared to if China tries to use this time frame to push militarily on the Taiwan issue.  Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

Chinese netizens are rejoicing in the U.S. failure to stymie China’s new investment bank.

What the AIIB Means for the US-China Power Transition http://t.co/JEuazVGrxI pic.twitter.com/HbB8GTa4vN

— The Diplomat (@Diplomat_APAC) March 29, 2015

This is another example of the rise of China where they are continuing to get nations to join AIIB which is a competitor to the western led World Bank:

South Korea on Thursday became the latest American ally to announce its intention to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank despite Washington’s qualms about the Chinese-led regional development bank.

The South Korean Ministry of Strategy and Finance said in a statement that Asia needed a new regional source of development money like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank because the existing multilateral lenders, like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, could not meet the demand for infrastructure investment funds in the region.

The United States has expressed misgivings about the proposed regional lender, which it sees as a threat to the Washington-led World Bank. American officials have also worried that the new bank would lack governance and transparency in enforcing lending, environmental and labor standards.

But in its statement, the South Korean ministry said a founding membership in the regional bank would help expand the country’s influence in the international banking sector. It also said membership would help its companies win deals in large-scale construction, telecommunications, transportation and other development projects in the region.

“Our government, together with its allies, has been urging China to improve its plans for the bank so that its governing structure and safeguards will meet international standards,” the ministry said. “We have seen significant progress in that regard.”  [New York Times via the Marmot’s Hole]

You can read the rest at the link, but this is also another example of how South Korea’s balances their relationship with China and the US. They prioritize economic issues with the Chinese and security issues with the US.

That is what the Hankyoreh is claiming that Chinese military planners are planning for:

China is ratcheting up the tenor of its opposition to the possible deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the Korean peninsula in the wake of a recent visit by Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Liu Jianchao. Meanwhile, South Korea and the US are responding on increasingly firm notes. After previously sending the cautious message that nothing had been decided or discussed, they are now bluntly insisting that Beijing keep out the matter. US Forces Korea also looks to be speeding up its preparations, delivering its first confirmation of recent surveys of THAAD candidate sites. It is still too early to tell what the specifics of Beijing’s response will be. But it appears unlikely to remain passive if the US deploys THAAD, a missile interception system, on the Korean Peninsula, as China sees it as a threat to key military security interests.

Beijing has yet to speak publicly about the specific reasons for its opposition. But its concern appears to be that the USFK system is a response to its own A2/AD strategy for preventing the introduction of US troops in the event of an emergency. A2/AD, which stands for “anti-access/area denial,” is a strategy for preventing US troops from accessing sites like Taiwan or the Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu in China) under an emergency scenario (anti-access) and preventing effective mobile operations by US forces (area denial). As part of the strategy, China has reportedly developed and deployed the Dong-Feng 21 (DF-21) ballistic missile, new anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), and nuclear-power submarines and drafted scenarios for preventing US naval and air forces from reaching a second island chain (maritime defense line) and first island chain.

The focus of attention for many is the inclusion of both US bases in South Korea and Japan as targets for A2/AD strikes. China is also reportedly working on a strategy for potentially ambushing and knocking out Air Force bases in Osan, Gyeonggi Province and Gunsan, North Jeolla Province, which it fears could be used as scrambling bases for US aircrafts. China’s concern has long been that USFK bases could be used against it, rather than simply as deterrents against North Korea. Its fears were fanned after South Korea and the US reached a “strategic flexibility” agreement in Jan. 2006 that guaranteed free access to the peninsula for USFK. The move was an official signal that USFK was not just a fixture of the peninsula, but a force that could be deployed anywhere to suit US needs.  [Hankyoreh]

You can read more at the link, but if China is planning to attack USFK bases in a Taiwan contingency it seems it would further justify why additional missile defense assets are needed on the peninsula, not less.

The U.S. once led the world in the #rareearth industry, but now every country in the world is reliant upon China in some way for rare earths

— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) March 22, 2015