Holy-shit map of the day: China has area-denial capability over most of the South China Sea https://t.co/ZTBeexeKHs pic.twitter.com/jhxhcs3mky
— Max Fisher (@Max_Fisher) September 21, 2016
China says opposes 'unhelpful' unilateral North Korea sanctions | Reuters https://t.co/sfZrYldnYS
— S. Kleine-Ahlbrandt (@ska_kongshan) September 15, 2016
Fortunately the article that sparked the controversy was just a Chinese style Onion click bait site which I am not going to provide a link to. However, it shows the ridiculousness of China’s recent territorial claims that people were actually taking it seriously for a while:
Even though the map and article were someone’s attempt at a little fun, there is a larger point. China’s use of maps, passports and other mapfare-style methods of pushing a narrative of rightful territorial claims whether over Taiwan or the 9 or actually 10-dash-line in the South China Sea and others areas has been part of Beijing’s toolkit for sometime now. The fact that none of us at the conference were shocked speaks volumes to the now ingrained perception of China on the international stage as a power bent on changing the status-quo—no matter what the cost. A reputation as some sort of rogue state is a tough thing in international politics to change—and it’s something Beijing should bare in mind. [National Interest]
You can read more at the link.
I think this article makes a good point that the more the Chinese government complains, the more it creates a selling point for Lockheed Martin to other potential customers about how effective the THAAD system is:
According to The Wall Street Journal, 74% of South Koreans supported the installation of the THAAD missile shield, but there is opposition primarily focussed on strained relations with China, the South’s largest economic partner.
Other opposition is coming from areas where the THAAD system will be deployed and environmentalists concerned about health hazards and other environmental impacts.
Lockheed, however, may eventually benefit from North Korea’s latest launches if the South increases the size of its order or even if it can parlay China’s fears about the system into a selling point to other customers. [24/7 Wall Street]
You can read more at the link.
South Korean President Park Geun-hye (L) shakes hands with her Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping prior to their summit talks in Hangzhou, eastern China, on Sept. 5, 2016. The meeting came amid strains in their relations over the planned deployment of a U.S. anti-missile system, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, in South Korea. (Yonhap)
Via a reader tip comes this news of how the Chinese flew three aircraft into the ROK’s air defense identification zone:
South Korean forces scrambled fighter jets to escort three Chinese military planes after they entered an overlapping air defence zone. The Chinese aircraft are reported to have flown into the airspace on Thursday, 18 August near South Korea’s island of Jeju without alerting authorities in Seoul.
Beijing’s aircraft, which included a bomber, quickly left the airspace after South Korean authorities issued a warning and dispatched the fighter jets, a military source told South Korea’s Yonhap news agency. [IB Times]
You can read more at the link, but I agree with the article’s assessment that the Chinese are militarily showing their displeasure against the ROK’s decision to deploy THAAD to South Korea.
Via a reader tip comes an opinion piece from ROK Drop favorite Andrei Lankov in regards to why China is so vehemently opposed to the deployment of the THAAD battery to South Korea:
However, such a hard blow is unlikely to ever be delivered by China. This is because extreme pressure is more likely to bring about regime collapse than denuclearization, and regime collapse is not what the Chinese leaders want to see (an anarchy in a nuclear state nearby is not their idea of stability and success). And at any rate, the Chinese losses from such a scenario will be greater than the problems created by THAAD deployment. Minor pressure, however, is not going to solve the nuclear problem and hence it will not lead to THAAD re-deployment elsewhere.
In this context, China therefore acts reasonably: it does not increase its pressure on North Korea, but rather penalizes South Korea for THAAD deployment. Obviously, it is being done in expectation that a sufficiently persistent form of pressure will eventually make the South Korean government – well, perhaps, next one – re-consider its position on THAAD.
After all, being a democracy, South Korea is relatively susceptible to outside pressures. China looms large in the South Korean economy, so informal sanctions – which are very easy to introduce for the Chinese leaders – will have a noticeable impact on the lives of the common South Koreans who, unlike their northern brethren, can vote and who also have many other means to push the government in the direction they (rightly or wrongly) see as conducive to their interests. [NK News]
I recommend reading the whole thing at the link. Mr. Lankov is right about what he covers in his analysis. However, I think he did miss one thing. In my opinion the Chinese know very well that THAAD is not a risk to their strategic missile deterrent. Instead they see this an opportunity to create a wedge between the US and the ROK. A weakened US-ROK alliance is in China’s national interest which the reversing of course on THAAD has the potential of creating.
The Chinese government is opposing the UN condemning the recent North Korean missile launch because they also want the UN to condemn the South Koreans for taking measures to protect themselves from these missile launches with the deployment of the THAAD system:
The United Nations Security Council has been unable to condemn the launch of a missile by North Korea that landed near Japan because China wanted the statement to oppose the planned deployment of a US anti-missile defense system in South Korea. North Korea launched a ballistic missile last Wednesday that landed in or near Japanese-controlled waters for the first time, the latest in a series of launches by the isolated country in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.
The 15-member council held a closed-door meeting on the same day, but has been unable to agree on a US-drafted statement to condemn the launch, which was almost identical to two previous statements issued by the council on North Korea (DPRK). China proposed that the statement also say “all relevant parties shall avoid taking any actions which could provoke each other and escalate tensions, and shall not deploy any new anti-ballistic missile stronghold in Northeast Asia with an excuse of dealing with threats of the DPRK nuclear and missile programs.” [The Indian Express]
You can read more at the link, mean while the Chinese government has been releasing footage of their own missile defense tests used to protect their country.
If true this is all the more reason why South Koreans should want the THAAD battery if the intent of the Chinese missiles is to target US troops reinforcing the ROK during a crisis:
China is maintaining ballistic missile bases in its northeastern territories, all equipped with missiles capable of reaching U.S. bases in the Pacific including Okinawa, according to a report posted on the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) website.
The bases may explain Beijing’s strident opposition to the deployment of a U.S.-made anti-missile defense system in South Korea, as its presence could hamper China’s missile striking capabilities if conflict broke out on the Korean Peninsula.
The presence of the U.S.-operated Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) system in South Korea could thwart Beijing’s attempt to attack U.S. ships ferrying soldiers to the peninsula with long-range ballistic missiles, analysts say. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link.
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