Category: China

A couple of questions to think about is would the Chinese go to war to stop Taiwan from moving towards formal independence and if so should the US go all in to defeat a Chinese attack?:

China’s President Xi Jinping has pledged to contain any moves by Taiwan toward formal independence in his first public remarks on the issue since the self-governing island democracy elected a president and legislature from the independence-leaning party in January.

Speaking to delegates to the annual meeting of China’s ceremonial parliament, Xi said China won’t budge in its insistence that Taiwan recognize it is part of China, regardless of political changes on the island of 23 million.

“We will resolutely contain Taiwan independence secessionist activities in any form,” Xi was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua News Agency at their meeting Saturday. “We will safeguard the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and never allow the historical tragedy of national secession to happen again.”

The landslide election of Tsai Ing-wen as president, along with a legislative majority for her Democratic Progressive Party, has thrown a question mark over the future of relations between the sides.

Tsai, who won’t be inaugurated until May, takes over from China-friendly Nationalist Party President Ma Ying-jeou, who oversaw the signing of a series of agreements during his eight years in power establishing closer economic ties between the sides.  [Washington Post]

You can read more at the link.

I wonder what China would be saying if another country threatened to nuke Beijing?

BEIJING, March 4 (Yonhap) — China called for calm and restraint on Friday after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered his military to be ready to use its atomic weapons at any time.
The order by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un marked a further escalation of tensions, a day after the North fired short-range projectiles into the East Sea in an apparent show of defiance following the U.N. Security Council’s adoption of new sanctions against Pyongyang over its fourth nuclear test and rocket launch.

“We hope that relevant countries can exercise restraint, speak and act prudently,” China’s foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said. [Yonhap]

Chinese banks halt transfer of yuan currency to N. Korean banks https://t.co/w2z0798wqr

— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) March 2, 2016

China's ambassador to South Korea says THAAD could destroy their ties "in an instant." What is THAAD? https://t.co/s6vjvDSwla

— The Diplomat (@Diplomat_APAC) February 26, 2016

Call me skeptical that the Chinese will actually inspect all cargo cross their border into North Korea and enforce these sanctions:

The United States presented a draft resolution on North Korea to the United Nations Security Council on Thursday. The resolution, which would tighten sanctions on Pyongyang, represents the culmination of nearly two months of negotiations between the United States and China, beginning just after North Korea’s nuclear test on January 6. As The Diplomat reported previously, final agreement on the resolution came during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s trip to Washington, D.C. this week, where he met with Secretary of State John Kerry, National Security Advisor Susan Rice, and President Barack Obama.

Reuters has details on the new draft, which is expected to go to a vote this weekend. Notably, the new draft would require mandatory inspections of all cargo en route to or from North Korea; ban all military sales to Pyongyang (including both weapons and items with dual-use potential); and ban the sale of aviation or rocket fuel to North Korea.

However, David Feith, writing in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, points out that Beijing’s agreeing to the sanctions doesn’t necessarily mean much. After all, China doesn’t have a good track record of actually enforcing UN sanctions.  [The Diplomat]

You can read more at the link.

Shortly after SAM deployment, fighter jets seen on disputed Woody Island in South China Seahttps://t.co/yntdmC6HnQ pic.twitter.com/YGzeMIUYHI

— Voice of America (@VOANews) February 24, 2016

China issues instructions on urban planning, buildings should be fitting, economical, environment-friendly, artistic pic.twitter.com/jSDjIksg20

— CGTN (@CGTNOfficial) February 21, 2016

I would also not be surprised if in the future the Chinese use large “fishing boats” as well to try and block US Navy ships from moving through contested areas in the South China Sea.  The Chinese would love nothing more to have a “fishing boat” sunk to portray the US as the aggressors in the South China Sea and to rally domestic support.  The US Navy is going to have to really think through procedures to deal with being blocked and rammed by Chinese ships in the South China Sea:

China has announced its intention to build a massive new coast guard ship ostensibly to patrol its territorial waters, protect its fisheries, and uphold its laws. This is a huge ship and its physical characteristics fall far outside the norms associated with the coast guard mission. For instance, the U.S. Coast Guard’s Legend-class national security cutter is 418 feet long and displaces 4,500 tons of water. The Chinese cutter will be over 500 feet long and displace more than 10,000 tons. The ship will be lightly armed, with two 76mm guns and other small arms, but these are not important to its true mission. This ship and its follow-on sister ships are built for one purpose: to move other ships out of the way.  [Defense One]

You can read the rest at the link.

https://twitter.com/isaacstonefish/status/699970659141754881

I guess the US has to go through the motions of telling the Chinese that the THAAD missile defense system is of no threat to them.  However, I have to guess that US officials know that the Chinese already know it is not a threat and instead are in my opinion using the issue to try and create a wedge between the US and the ROK:

The United States and China have been in discussions about the possible deployment of an advanced American missile defense system in South Korea, a diplomatic source with knowledge of the matter said Monday.

The discussions are aimed at seeking China’s understanding that the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea is not aimed at undermining China’s security interests, the source said on the condition of anonymity.

While the U.S. is trying to explain technical details on why the THAAD is not targeting China, the Chinese side has not actively listened to the explanation from the U.S. side, the source said.

“The Chinese side has been opposed to the THAAD with incorrect information and the discussions are aimed at changing China’s view about the issue,” the source said.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.