Category: China

Via a reader tip comes an opinion piece from ROK Drop favorite Andrei Lankov in regards to why China is so vehemently opposed to the deployment of the THAAD battery to South Korea:

However, such a hard blow is unlikely to ever be delivered by China. This is because extreme pressure is more likely to bring about regime collapse than denuclearization, and regime collapse is not what the Chinese leaders want to see (an anarchy in a nuclear state nearby is not their idea of stability and success). And at any rate, the Chinese losses from such a scenario will be greater than the problems created by THAAD deployment. Minor pressure, however, is not going to solve the nuclear problem and hence it will not lead to THAAD re-deployment elsewhere.

In this context, China therefore acts reasonably: it does not increase its pressure on North Korea, but rather penalizes South Korea for THAAD deployment. Obviously, it is being done in expectation that a sufficiently persistent form of pressure will eventually make the South Korean government – well, perhaps, next one – re-consider its position on THAAD.

After all, being a democracy, South Korea is relatively susceptible to outside pressures. China looms large in the South Korean economy, so informal sanctions – which  are very easy to introduce for the Chinese leaders – will have a noticeable impact on the lives of the common South Koreans who, unlike their northern brethren, can vote and who also have many other means to push the government in the direction they (rightly or wrongly) see as conducive to their interests.  [NK News]

I recommend reading the whole thing at the link.  Mr. Lankov is right about what he covers in his analysis.  However, I think he did miss one thing.  In my opinion the Chinese know very well that THAAD is not a risk to their strategic missile deterrent. Instead they see this an opportunity to create a wedge between the US and the ROK.  A weakened US-ROK alliance is in China’s national interest which the reversing of course on THAAD has the potential of creating.

The Chinese government is opposing the UN condemning the recent North Korean missile launch because they also want the UN to condemn the South Koreans for taking measures to protect themselves from these missile launches with the deployment of the THAAD system:

The United Nations Security Council has been unable to condemn the launch of a missile by North Korea that landed near Japan because China wanted the statement to oppose the planned deployment of a US anti-missile defense system in South Korea. North Korea launched a ballistic missile last Wednesday that landed in or near Japanese-controlled waters for the first time, the latest in a series of launches by the isolated country in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.

The 15-member council held a closed-door meeting on the same day, but has been unable to agree on a US-drafted statement to condemn the launch, which was almost identical to two previous statements issued by the council on North Korea (DPRK). China proposed that the statement also say “all relevant parties shall avoid taking any actions which could provoke each other and escalate tensions, and shall not deploy any new anti-ballistic missile stronghold in Northeast Asia with an excuse of dealing with threats of the DPRK nuclear and missile programs.”  [The Indian Express]

You can read more at the link, mean while the Chinese government has been releasing footage of their own missile defense tests used to protect their country.

If true this is all the more reason why South Koreans should want the THAAD battery if the intent of the Chinese missiles is to target US troops reinforcing the ROK during a crisis:

China is maintaining ballistic missile bases in its northeastern territories, all equipped with missiles capable of reaching U.S. bases in the Pacific including Okinawa, according to a report posted on the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) website.

The bases may explain Beijing’s strident opposition to the deployment of a U.S.-made anti-missile defense system in South Korea, as its presence could hamper China’s missile striking capabilities if conflict broke out on the Korean Peninsula.

The presence of the U.S.-operated Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) system in South Korea could thwart Beijing’s attempt to attack U.S. ships ferrying soldiers to the peninsula with long-range ballistic missiles, analysts say.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

https://twitter.com/GlobalAsianista/status/761665517258018816

This will probably be one of a few areas that the Chinese will retaliate against the ROK for the decision to deploy THAAD:

Speculation is rife that China will target K-pop stars in retaliation against Seoul’s decision to install an American-made missile defense system on the Korean peninsula.  K-pop stars could be the unlikely first casualties of Seoul’s decision to deploy a U.S.-made missile defense system on the Korean peninsula, despite vocal opposition from China.

Speculation is rife that China will retaliate by limiting South Korean media and stars from its huge entertainment market.

According to two sources cited by the South China Morning Post, China’s national media regulator informed TV stations in Guangdong Province that TV shows featuring South Korean pop stars would not be granted approval to air “in the near future.”

Meanwhile, shares in South Korean entertainment companies took a dive Tuesday as investors bet that the firms would be hit by impending restrictions from China. SM Entertainment Co., known for such K-pop super-groups as Girls’ Generation, closed down 5.3 percent, according to Bloomberg. YG Entertainment Corp., the company known for producing Psy, fell 8 percent.  [Hollywood Reporter]

You can read more at the link, but the ROK has been through this before with China retaliating against them with trade restrictions such as during the Great Kimchi War of 2005.

China has a long ways to go to restore their “Shang Guo” status in South Korea if they continue to be viewed as regional bullies which is once again how they appear with their recent reactions to both the South China Sea International Court ruling and the decision to deploy THAAD to South Korea:

In the past, China was both “da guo” and “shang guo” to Koreans. China was a powerful and highly civilized nation that smaller neighboring countries admired. This involved a historical mentality of respect that Koreans attached in reverence to a big and powerful country. But not anymore. The Chinese authors conclude: “For South Koreans, today’s ‘shang guo’ is the United States, not China” (p. 179).

The authors call on China to reclaim its high position that commands respect from Koreans by establishing superiority.

“Therefore, until the time when China completely establishes its superiority to South Korea, the (negative) image South Koreans have about China will not likely have a fundamental shift.” (p. 186–87).

Since the Chinese authors did not elaborate on it further, there is no way to know what they meant by “establishing superiority to South Korea.” This could mean that China would need to upgrade its soft-power leverage toward South Korea. This could also indicate China’s determination to outstrip South Korea in terms of economic, political and cultural prowess, a position that would make South Koreans feel overwhelmed, like in the old days. Or, it may refer to its willingness to use physical means to subjugate South Korea. The interpretation is open, debatable and includes uncertainty. This ambiguity is unhelpful as it generates uneasiness in the minds of South Koreans toward China’s future power projections.

Overall, the book reads very much like a self-conscious image-journal of China, baffled by why South Korea, its former tributary, does not revere the Middle Kingdom emperor anymore. I think this is a loaded question that the Chinese already know the answer to. Just look at the widespread panic in South Korea regarding China’s “imminent” retaliation over THAAD. [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but the way the ruling communist party has promoted nationalism to cement their legitimacy they can’t afford to be malevolent towards South Korea.

And by BREAKING, they mean "something China has said over and over since at least 2015." https://t.co/eNGwMXWaUy

— Erik Slavin (@eslavin_stripes) July 13, 2016

There may be tensions between the countries in the Pacific region with China due to their territorial grab in the South China Sea, but those tensions are being put aside in order to work together during the 2016 RIMPAC exercise kicking off in Hawaii:

The hot topic for the Rim of the Pacific remains unchanged from the last version of the maritime exercise in 2014: China.

This marks the second time China has been a full participant in RIMPAC, bringing five ships compared with two in 2014, and the country will play a much larger role.

During a Tuesday news conference kicking off the six-week exercise — the largest so far — Pacific Fleet commander Adm. Scott Swift was flanked by top commanders from many of the 26 participating nations. Beside him was Vice Adm. Nora Tyson, commander of the U.S. Third Fleet, who is heading the exercise’s combined task force.

Swift’s opening remarks didn’t mention China by name, but his first talking point echoed repeated calls by U.S. civilian and military officials to maintain the U.S.-led status quo in the Pacific region in response to ever-greater Chinese military might.

“[RIMPAC] brings together 26 nations from North and South America, Europe, Asia and Oceania,” Swift said. “This is what the international maritime community does in ensuring the norms, standards, rules and laws that have provided the great stability and security — the foundation for prosperity — that we’ve all enjoyed over the last 70 years.”

The biennial exercise is “a recurring answer to the divisive angst and tensions that put security and stability at risk in this region,” he said.  [Stars & Stripes]

This is what the Chinese Navy will be training with the US on during RIMPAC:

As it did in 2014, China sent the hospital ship Peace Ark, along with the guided missile destroy Xian, guided-missile frigate Hengshui, fleet oiler Gaoyouhui and the submarine logistics vessel Changxingdao.

China will participate in a new submarine rescue scenario, among other drills.

“For any country that has submarines, submarine rescue is very important,” Tyson told reporters. “I think it’s great we’re bringing these submarine rescue capabilities together so that we understand what is available in case we have an emergency with a submarine. There is a global system that will respond if any of us were to have an emergency with a submarine.”

You can read more at the link, but something of interests is that all surface vessels during the exercise are required to “Go Green” and use biofuels to power their ships.

Kim Jong-un is not only using the Chinese fishing boats as part of a asymmetric warfare strategy, but he is also making money at the expense of food for his own people:

– North Korea‘s latest policies might be behind the increased presence of Chinese boats in or near South Korean waters.

The cash-strapped Pyongyang regime, under heavy international sanctions in 2016, sold $30 million worth of fishing rights to more than a 1,000 Chinese vessels, The Korea Herald reported Friday.

The number of licenses issued has tripled from previous years, said Lee Wan-young, a South Korean lawmaker of the ruling Saenuri party, after a meeting with the National Intelligence Service.

“North Korean people, too, are unhappy because it has shrunk the catch and caused common complaints with their southern counterparts regarding worsening environmental damage such as from fuel oil sludge at sea,” Lee said.  [UPI]

You can read more at the link, but so much for China supposedly aggressively applying financial sanctions on North Korea.

Is China secretly punishing Kim Jong Un for his nuclear mischief? https://t.co/rdtpljd8bH by me @PostOpinions

— Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) July 1, 2016