Will Iran Transition Into a North Korea Like Military State?

I think the only way that Iran turns into a shattered Syria like state that Israel is pushing for is if the regime’s oil wealth is stopped. However, doing that would likely risk retaliation against the oil infrastructure of their Gulf neighbor countries. Would the U.S. risk the Gulf Arab oil infrastructure being destroyed to take down the regime? I guess we will see. However, if the oil is allowed to flow the IRGC will use the vast majority of those funds to rearm as quickly as possible:

As the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran prolongs, concerns are growing that Iran could transform into a “giant North Korea.” There are significant fears that Iran might transition into a closed military state centered around its military elite following a large-scale U.S. attack.

Foreign Policy (FP), a U.S. diplomatic and security-focused media outlet, recently highlighted this scenario in an article titled “Does Iran’s Future Look Like Cuba, Syria or North Korea?” FP noted, “Arab Gulf states are increasingly leaning toward effectively quarantining Iran until it becomes something akin to Cuba: diminished and rigid but contained.” In contrast, Israel aims to collapse the Iranian regime to eliminate its regional influence, making it resemble “civil-war era Syria,” according to FP’s analysis. However, concerns arise that Iran is heading toward the worst-case scenario: becoming a “North Korea-style state.” FP warned, “The reality, however, is that both approaches might not turn out the way their advocates hope,” adding, “There is a strong risk that Iran will end up not like Cuba or Syria, but instead like North Korea—a garrison state that survives by becoming more dangerous, not less.”

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but it appears the U.S. is going to adopt the lawnmower strategy Israel has used for years against Hamas and Hezbollah. Bomb Iran every few years to diminish their military capacity every time they rebuild it to a point they can threaten their neighbors. It won’t be popular having to continually go back and bomb them, but the only alternative is to allow them to reconstitute their drone and missile programs.

The IRGC has been attempting to build enough missiles and drones to hold its neighbors and Europe hostage in order to build a nuclear bomb. The attack on Diego Garcia shows they have developed a missile to attack Europe. Would the U.S. take action against Iran in the future if ballistic missiles are a threat to rain down on London, Paris, and Berlin along with Israel and the Gulf Arab nations?

This is essentially what the U.S. faced with North Korea in the 1990’s. Bill Clinton decided not to take military action to stop North Korea’s nuclear program because of the risk of an artillery attack on Seoul where millions of people and South Korea’s economy is centered around. We are now living with the consequences of that decision to this day.