How Will China React To A North Korean Nuclear or Rocket Test?

The Chinese may act angrily and say all the right things to the international community, but the Kim regime is counting on that they won’t do anything that would threaten to destabilize the regime.  This is because the Chinese likely fear a collapsed North Korean state more than they do the backlash from North Korean provocations:

If North Korea launches a rocket into space or conducts a nuclear test in the coming weeks, as observers suspect it may, China is certain to respond angrily, and perhaps with an unprecedented level of economic punishment. The question is whether North Korea can be swayed even by its most important ally.  (…………………)

China’s response to North Korea’s last declared nuclear test, in the spring of 2013, was considered something of a watershed in degree of harshness. China swiftly joined the international community in condemning the action, called in the North Korean ambassador to protest, and, according to some indications, slowed the flow of goods across their border.

A new nuclear test or rocket firing could lead China to enforce existing and future sanctions more vigorously.

“China will strongly oppose (a test or launch) and will be sure to implement future United Nations resolutions even more resolutely,” said Zhang Liangui, a North Korea expert with the ruling Communist Party’s main research and training institute in Beijing.

China may also take unilateral steps such as cutting back on cross-border trade, Chinese experts say. Such measures could target the industrial commodities and luxury goods Kim needs to keep the moribund North Korean economy ticking over and ensure the loyalty of regime supporters.  [Associated Press]

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