Lankov on Possible Chinese Annexation of North Korea
Andrei Lankov has another great piece about curent events in North Korea:
However, more sinister scenarios are being discussed in Seoul these days. There are growing worries that Chinese involvement will not be limited to just shipping trainloads of grain and fertilizer to prevent the North Korean government from collapsing. More direct involvement in the event of a crisis is possible, up to the point of installing a pro-Chinese government in Pyongyang, according to some observers. These fears are not necessarily paranoid: if anything, South Korean public opinion is rather pro-Chinese these days.
The “Chinese solution” might be welcomed by the North Korean elite, which is cornered, and aware of its own embattled situation. Unlike the rulers of the former Soviet Union, China or most East European countries, the North Korean apparatchiks cannot reinvent themselves as successful capitalist entrepreneurs.
The existence of prosperous and democratic South Korea means that a complete collapse of the North Korean system will probably lead to a German-style unification. If this were to happen, the people who run the North now will have no chance of keeping their privileges, and perhaps have reasons to worry about their lives.
The question I am wondering is South Korea willing to go to war against China if the Chinese annex North Korea after a regime collapse. It might be a good thing to keep the Uncle Sam on your good side if you are concerned this might happen.
Hat tip: Marmot
