Is China the Real Problem?
It appears that the rapidly increasing opinion on the most recent North Korean nuclear crisis is that the real problem is not North Korea but China. First we have this article from the New York Times.
“If we cut off aid and the Koreas are unified on South Korean terms, that would be a big disaster for China,” one analyst said. “The U.S. would insist on basing its troops in the northern part of the peninsula, and China would have to consider that all of its efforts going back to the Korean War have been a waste.”
Other experts here look cynically on Washington’s insistence on Chinese leadership in the North Korean face-off, seeing it as part of a broader effort by the United States to entangle Beijing in a growing web of international arrangements, the better to limit Chinese influence.
A fresh example of the divisions between the United States and China was provided this week with confirmation that Tokyo is moving closer to Washington’s policy position that the status quo on Taiwan must be maintained. Chinese analysts often point out that having a friendly country tying up American troops on its northern border frees Beijing to focus its forces on other contingencies, notably the Taiwan question.
I think any Chinese worries about the US basing troops in North Korea after reunification are overstated. Currently the US appears to have little interest in basing troops in South Korea much less North Korea. After reunification an American presence in North Korea would give the southern government little credibility with the northerners. The northerners since the day they are born are taught the South Koreans are nothing but slaves to the evil Americans. American forces stationed in North Korea will only reinforce this perception. To secure North Korea and to build legitimacy for the southern government the ROK Army will have to be the force that secures the north not the US Army.
Keeping North Korea afloat to tie up US troops in Korea was once a valid strategy. With the transformation of USFK into a deployable force which was evident by last summers deployment of 2nd brigade to Iraq this strategy has little weight any more. If hostilities were to break out between China and Taiwan the US could deploy troops from the Korean peninsula with little impact on the security situation on the Korean peninsula due to the strength and modernization of the ROK Army to defend itself from North Korean aggression.
Now the real reason I think China is keeping North Korea afloat is first of all the refugee issue. If North Korea were to collapse China faces the possibility of being flooded by refugees which it does not want to deal with especially with the Olympics soon coming to Beijing. China is desperate to keep the status quo with North Korea until at least the Olympics pass. Beijing is desperate to make sure nothing spoils their Olympic moment. Beijing wants to use the Olympics to show case China as the world’s newest superpower. Waves of homeless refugees and refugee camps or the aftermath of a war on the Korean peninsula will take some of that luster from China’s Olympic spotlight. So the status quo is good for China until at least 2008.
Secondly one has to ask, what does China get out of reunification of the Korean peninsula? Really nothing accept a pat on the back from the international community. If I was a Chinese policy maker, I would hold on to the North Korean issue as a bargaining chip for the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China. If you look at the Taiwan issue it is the evil twin of the North Korean issue. With North Korea you have a democracy wanting to reunite with its communist little brother. With China you have a communist government trying to reunite with its democratic little brother. China will continue to pay lip service to the North Korean issue as long as Washington continues to give lip service to the Tawainese issue.
So it appears that the whole issue will stay at a deadlock for sometime unless there is regime change in China to. Here is this article provided via fellow Milblogger the Budaechigae.
Communist China’s opposition does not make North Korea’s liberation any less necessary or vital. In fact, Communist China’s continuing willingness to support Stalinist North Korea makes liberation ever more imperative. This leads to the heart of the issue: how does one “solve” the North Korean problem when Communist China is determined to prevent the solution from being implemented? If the Chinese Communist regime is determined to remain an obstacle to freedom in North Korea, then there is only one alternative: that regime must be removed as well. The policy for the United States is clear: to liberate northern Korea, one must work to liberate China as well.
I don’t think the US needs to implement regime change on China because it will eventually happen on its own given time. Once the Chinese become used to a modern and prosperous lifestyle and all the things that come with it, the people will eventually call for political reform as well, which means democracy. In Korea, Park Chung-hee was a dictator but people could live with the disadvantages of having a dicator ruling them at that time because he brought modernization and prosperity to the country. In the 1980’s the Korean people took their prosperity for granted and began to want more. They wanted political liberalization as well which eventually led to democracy in the 1990’s. The same thing will eventually unfold in China given time. But that is the current problem we have with North Korea. How much time do we really have?
