Tag: negotiations

Diplomat Says U.S. Ready to Be Flexible in Negotiations with North Korea

It is looking more and more like North Korea’s pressure campaign may be working to get the Trump administration to make concessions on sanctions:

This AFP photo shows U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Kelly Craft chairing a U.N. Security Council meeting on North Korea at the U.N. headquarters in New York on Dec. 11, 2019. (Yonhap)

The United States is ready to be flexible in negotiations with North Korea on dismantling the regime’s nuclear weapons program, the U.S. envoy to the United Nations said Wednesday, urging Pyongyang to refrain from provocations.

Ambassador Kelly Craft made the remarks at a U.N. Security Council session as Pyongyang’s year-end deadline for nuclear negotiations with Washington draws near.

Amid indications the North is preparing to launch a long-range missile, Craft warned that such activity will only complicate efforts to implement an agreement reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at their first summit in Singapore in June 2018.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

Is North Korea Using U.S. Political to Maximize Denuclearization Concessions?

This is like the North Korean version of a maximum pressure strategy and we will see in the coming months if it works:

U.S. negotiators tried to cast the impasse in the best light, stating that they’d raised “new initiatives” and describing the discussions as “good.” They noted that the United States and North Korea “will not overcome a legacy of 70 years of war and hostility on the Korean peninsula through the course of a single Saturday,” and that they sought “more intensive engagement” and another meeting in the optimistic Pompeoian time frame of a couple of weeks.

The North Korean delegation, however, appeared unwilling to enter into a substantive and structured diplomatic process, let alone technical conversations about dismantling the country’s nuclear program. Instead of presenting themselves as the empowered negotiators U.S. officials had hopedto finally confront after previous rounds of abortive working-level nuclear talks, the North Koreans seemed to once again be primarily in listening mode.

“Rather than the breakdown of talks, what we are seeing resembles classic North Korean negotiating tactics: demand more concessions, minimize denuclearization commitments, and figure out how to cheat,” Easley told me by email. “Kim Myong Gil does not have authority to compromise on anything until approved by Kim Jong Un. He probably went to Stockholm with talking points and instructions to receive the updated U.S. position before walking out to buy time and apply pressure.” (…..)

Now that the Democrats have launched an impeachment inquiry into the president’s efforts to pressure the Ukrainian government into investigating the Bidens ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, North Korean officials (who are known to closely follow U.S. politics) may be calculating that they are in a stronger negotiating position, and that Trump, a “self-advertised dealmaker” without many actual deals in foreign affairs, will be interested in “a distraction” from his domestic troubles in the form of a nuclear accord, Yun noted.

The Atlantic

You can read more at the link.

North Korea Agrees to Resume Working Level Nuclear Talks This Weekend

With former National Security Advisor John Bolton removed, the North Koreans now appear ready to talk:

North Korea and the United States agreed to resume their working-level nuclear talks this week, Pyongyang’s state media reported Tuesday, citing a statement from a senior diplomat.

First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui said that Washington and Pyongyang agreed to hold “preliminary contact on Oct. 4 and hold working-level negotiations on Oct. 5,” according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Choe did not mention the venue for the upcoming talks.

“The delegates of the DPRK side are ready to enter into the DPRK-U.S. working-level negotiations,” Choe said in a statement. DPRK stands for the North’s official name, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

South Korean Ambassador Says that North Korea Wants to Continue Talking with the US

Notice that the ROK ambassador said nothing about North Korea wanting to maintain momentum to denuclearize.  The Kim regime is of course willing to talk in hopes of gaining concessions for little to nothing in return:

South Korean Ambassador to the U.S. Cho Yoon-je (Yonhap)

North Korea remains determined to maintain the momentum of dialogue with the United States despite a recent hiccup, South Korea’s top envoy in Washington said Thursday.

Ambassador Cho Yoon-je dismissed a view that Pyongyang and Washington are shifting back to a confrontation after months of diplomatic engagement.

“North Korea’s intention of maintaining dialogue momentum is certain,” he told South Korea’s Washington, D.C. correspondents.

He was referring to “various speculations” driven by media after President Donald Trump called off Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s trip to Pyongyang this week.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

North Korea’s Denuclearization Rebuke Linked to Wanting US Troop Cuts in South Korea

The North Koreans have now said more about why they are unhappy about Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Pyongyang, they want US troops removed from the peninsula before they do anything:

The next line of the more than 1,200-word statement may have captured the central complaint: “The U.S. side never mentioned the issue of establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, which is essential for defusing tension and preventing a war,” an unidentified foreign ministry spokesman said.

The statement shows that Kim is willing to test Trump’s patience and not bargain away his arsenal without sufficient security guarantees. The regime’s belief that the weapons are needed to deter a U.S. attack dates back nearly 70 years to the still-unresolved Korean War, and will take more than a handshake to dispel.  (…….)

That’s why the vague 1-1/2 page agreement Kim signed with Trump on June 12 called for establishing a new relationship and a “lasting and stable peace regime.” The pledge to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” was listed third.

Practically, assuaging Kim’s security fears could require risky choices for the U.S. and its North Asian allies, such as rolling back America’s nuclear umbrella or pulling back its troops in South Korea. The desire for a broader security realignment explains why Kim agreed to “denuclearization” and not disarmament.

Trump has already faced criticism for being too quick to make security concessions to Kim, including his unilateral suspension of military exercises with South Korea. The North Korean statement indicated such gestures hadn’t gone far enough, saying the U.S. moves were “highly reversible” and left its military force intact “without scraping even a rifle.”  [Bloomberg]

You can read more at the link, but I am sure the Kim regime cares little about the irony of them complaining about “highly reversible” actions taken by the Trump administration when they have done the same thing.  There is not one thing the Kim regime has done as part of the ongoing nuclear negotiations that cannot be easily reversed if so desired.

With that said remember the North’s nuclear weapons has nothing to do with security guarantees as discussed in the article; the North’s conventional weapons have kept the US and South Korea in check for decades because of the threat to Seoul.  That is why you will not see the North Koreans push their artillery away from the DMZ despite ROK requests to do so.

The North’s nuclear weapons are linked to threatening the United States to get the US president to sign a peace treaty, withdraw troops, and remove the nuclear umbrella over South Korea.   Once this is done, then the next phase of establishing the peace regime can occur which is essentially a confederation of North and South Korea on North Korean terms.

Why is North Korea Calling Recent Talks with Mike Pompeo “Regrettable”?

The North Koreans are up to their old tricks:

Mike Pompeo in Pyongyang

North Korea says high-level talks with a U.S. delegation led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were “regrettable” and has accused Washington of trying to unilaterally pressure the country into abandoning its nukes.

The statement by an unnamed North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman on Saturday came hours after Pompeo concluded two days of talks with North Korean officials led by Kim Yong Chol.

The statement says that the United States betrayed the spirit of last month’s summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by making unilateral demands on “CVID,” or the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of North Korea.

It says the outcome of the follow-up talks was “very concerning” because it has led to a “dangerous phase that might rattle our willingness for denuclearization that had been firm.” [Associated Press]

You can read more at the link, but my best guess on what is going on is that North Korea wants some of the sanctions dropped for the little to nothing they have done to denuclearize.  This is their standard playbook from past negotiations.

The other thing that is in their playbook is using the remains of US servicemembers killed during the Korean War as bargaining chips.   When the return of 200 war remains was announced I was wondering what the cost would be?  Now we know they were just bargaining chips by the Kim regime to get sanctions dropped.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has wrapped up two days of talks with senior North Korean officials without meeting Kim Jong Un but with commitments for new discussions on denuclearization and the repatriation of the remains of American soldiers killed during the Korean War.

The Kim regime is only committing to further discussions on the return of the remains which proves they are simply bargaining chips to get what the Kim regime wants which is some of the sanctions dropped.  South Korean President Moon is ready to send the Kim regime cash and aid, but the sanctions are preventing him from doing so.

What will be important to watch now is if the Trump administration flinches and allows some of the sanctions to be dropped to keep the negotiations going.  If they do then truly nothing has changed, the Trump administration is just the latest government to be fooled by the Kim regime’s false promises to denuclearize.

Trump-Kim Summit May Still Occur After North Korea Backs Down and Takes Conciliatory Tone to Talks

As I said yesterday, the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit by President Trump was nothing more than part of the ongoing negotiations.  Well it looks like the Kim regime got the message from the Trump administration that the usual games they played during past negotiations will not be tolerated:

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump cancelling the June 12 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to discuss the regime’s denuclearization, it appears a meeting could take place not too far in the future, as both sides seem willing to engage in dialogue.

North Korea, unlike its usual hard-line stance, expressed regret over the cancellation and said it is open to talks at anytime, so the ball is again in the U.S.’s court.

After Trump’s announcement late Thursday, North Korea stated that it had a “willingness to resolve issues through dialogue, whenever and through whatever means.” The statement was made by North Korea’s First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan, reported by the Korean Central News Agency the following morning.  [Korea Times]

Who can remember a time when the Kim regime has been this conciliatory for talks?  The only time that comes to mind was during the Banco Delta Asia incident where they were desperate to get the millions of dollars frozen by the US Treasury Department back.  The Kim regime played nice until they got what they wanted and then eventually returned to conducting provocations.

It is pretty clear the Trump administration is trying to change this dynamic and the President today is signaling that the summit can still happen if North Korea changes its tone:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday his planned meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could still take place June 12, after cancelling the summit a day earlier.

“We’re going to see what happens. We’re talking to them right now. It could even be the 12th,” Trump told reporters before departing the White House.  (….)

“Very good news to receive the warm and productive statement from North Korea,” he wrote. “We will soon see where it will lead, hopefully to long and enduring prosperity and peace. Only time (and talent) will tell!”  [Yonhap]

I guess we will see what happens, but it is good to see the Kim regime for once on the defensive when it comes to negotiations.

Trump-Kim Summit Reportedly Will Be Held In Singapore

If this report is true this is an interesting location for a summit considering that Singapore is a friendly US ally.  I would have thought Beijing would have been a better third nation location from the North Korean perspective:

Singapore has emerged as the most likely venue for the planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, according to multiple diplomatic sources, Monday.

The sources said the historic summit will likely take place between June 9 and 15, after Trump attends the G-7 Summit slated for June 8 to 9 in Quebec, Canada.

This suggests the White House is losing interest in the truce village of Panmunjeom, although Trump proposed both the Peace House and Freedom House as possible venues for the summit.  (……)

The sources said the White House is leaning toward Singapore over Panmunjeom for “practical reasons.”

A source pointed out that officials of the U.S. and North Korea have held talks several times in Singapore and it is an excellent neutral location for both sides.

A different source said Singapore has a history of hosting summits for leaders of third countries, including that of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou in 2015.

Both the U.S. and North Korea have embassies in Singapore, making it easier for their officials to prepare for the summit.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Venue for Kim-Trump Summit is the First Major Negotiating Sticking Point

Here is the first major issue the US and the North Korea need to work out:

The North Koreans, in unpublicised meetings with the Americans, are saying they want Trump to see Kim in Pyongyang. The Americans, of course, do not want Trump visiting North Korea, where Kim would be in the role of a head of state receiving the American guest as a supplicant seeking his approval.

Instead, in conversations via the CIA, the Americans are pressing for the talks to be held in the capital of a third country or in the truce village of Panmunjom on the North-South line, 60km north of Seoul. That’s where South Korean President Moon Jae-in is due to meet Kim on April 27, and the Americans see no reason why Kim cannot go to Panmunjom for his summit with Trump, tentatively agreed upon to take place in May.

The Americans see the idea of Trump going to Pyongyang as another attempt on the part of Kim and his team of strategists to create obstructions to any serious attempt at negotiating an end to the North’s nuclear programme. It might seem inconceivable that Trump would go to Pyongyang to meet Kim, but what if North Korea refused to budge?

Would the result be no summit – and North and South Korea both blaming the US for refusing to accommodate North Korea’s demands? Or would North Korea, if sincerely interested in a summit, accept other suggestions?  [South China Morning Post]

You can read more at the link, but I think the North Koreans are refusing to budge from holding the summit in Pyongyang because they want to first see what the Americans have to offer.  If prior negotiations show the US not willing to make the concessions they want, the Kim regime can continue to demand that Pyongyang be the location of the summit in order to kill it and then blame the Americans for its failure.

If the Kim regime does continue to demand to hold the summit at Pyongyang, then I think President Trump should fly to South Korea and visit Panmunjom and tell Kim Jong-un when he will be there to put the onus back on him for not meeting him.