Tag: NATO

I learned something new today that Hawaii and Guam are not covered by the NATO alliance simply because none of their landmasses touch the Atlantic Ocean:

Sweden became the newest member of NATO earlier this month, joining 31 nations in the security alliance, including the United States. Well, make that 49 of the 50 United States.

Because in a quirk of geography and history, Hawaii is not technically covered by the NATO pact.

If a foreign power attacked Hawaii – say the US Navy’s base at Pearl Harbor or the headquarters of the Indo-Pacific Command northwest of Honolulu – the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would not be obligated to rise to the Aloha State’s defense.

CNN

Here is why Hawaii and Guam being left out is significant:

John Hemmings, senior director of the Indo-Pacific Foreign and Security Policy Program at the Pacific Forum, says Hawaii’s exclusion from NATO removes “an element of deterrence” when it comes to the possibility of a Chinese strike on Hawaii in support of any potential Taiwan campaign.

Leaving Hawaii out lets Beijing know that NATO’s European members potentially have a bit of an “escape clause” when it comes to defending US territory in such a hypothetical situation, he says. (……)

Hemmings also makes an argument for Guam, the US Pacific island territory some 3,000 miles farther west than Hawaii, to be included in NATO’s umbrella.

The island, which has long been a focal point of North Korean saber rattling, is home to Andersen Air Force Base, from which the US can launch its B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers across the Indo-Pacific.

Hemmings likens Guam’s exclusion from NATO to how the US left the Korean Peninsula outside of a line it drew across the Pacific to deter the Soviet Union and China from spreading communism in January 1950. Five months after the so-called Acheson Line was drawn, the Korean War began.

“The adversary feels emboldened to carry out military conflict and you end up having a war anyway,” Hemmings says.

You can read more at the link, but is anyone confident that NATO would respond for example to a Chinese attack on Guam in response to a Taiwan contingency? Other than the UK and likely Canada who else in NATO could be trusted to deploy troops to the Pacific to support such a conflict?

Over time this makes me wonder if NATO will become more of a factor for security on the Korean peninsula than the United Nations? With Russia and China on the UN Security Council any attempt to assist South Korea to repel North Korean aggression would likely get vetoed. It makes sense that President Yoon would pursue cooperation with an alternate security organization:

President Yoon Suk Yeol and North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg hold Individually Tailored Partnership Programs signed by the two sides during a meeting at the Lithuanian Exhibition and Congress Center in Vilnius, Lithuania, Tuesday (local time). Yonhap

South Korea and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) signed a new partnership agreement composed of 11 documents, called Individually Tailored Partnership Programs (ITPPs), which will cover bilateral cooperation in new sectors such as cybersecurity, new technologies, climate change and the defense industry.

The agreement was signed at a meeting between President Yoon Suk Yeol and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Vilnius, Lithuania, Tuesday (local time). Yoon is currently visiting the Baltic country to attend the 2023 NATO summit.

“This year’s participation in the NATO summit is aimed at institutionalizing the framework of cooperation between South Korea and NATO through ITPPs and discuss cooperation in military intelligence and cybersecurity,” Yoon said during the meeting.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Here is an interesting diplomatic development for South Korea since it shows that NATO countries recognize the ROK’s military capabilities as an alliance partner:

South Korea has decided to establish a mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels, a presidential official said Wednesday ahead of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s participation in a NATO summit next week.

Yoon will attend the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, on June 29 and 30, on his first overseas trip as president, National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han said during a press briefing.

South Korea is not a member of the military alliance but has been invited as a partner nation, along with countries, such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

The new NATO mission will be headed by the South Korean ambassador to Belgium, who currently also doubles as the ambassador to the European Union, a second presidential official said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

The fact that Europe is within ICBM range means that any NATO country that to comes to the aid of South Korea during a crisis puts them at risk of nuclear retaliation.  Will any NATO countries risk nuclear retaliation to help the ROK?:

North Korea responded Wednesday to European concerns about being in the path of Pyongyang’s potentially nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by assuring the leader of Western military alliance NATO that such weapons were only intended for the U.S.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said during an interview last week with Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun that “Europe has also entered the [North Korean] missile range, and NATO member states are already in danger.” North Korea’s ruling party-run Rodong Shinmun newspaper countered these claims, calling Stoltenberg’s remarks “false and groundless” because, although European states are indeed in North Korea’s missile range, Pyongyang has no intention of pulling the trigger.

“The DPRK’s ballistic rockets are for deterring the U.S. nuclear war hysterics and ensuring peace and security on the Korean peninsula and the region. They are not for threatening Europe and the world,” the commentary read, according to the official Korea Central News Agency, referring to the country’s official title: The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.  [Newsweek]

You can read more at the link, but this is just another example of how their nuclear and ICBM programs are about more than regime survival.  They also are being developed to isolate the ROK from its allies and ultimately separate the ROK from the US.

It is telling that Secretary of Defense James Mattis gave no warnings to South Korea or Japan during his recent visit to the area, but did gave a warning to NATO to increase spending:

SecDef Mattis, in Brussels, warns @NATO allies they have to increase their defense spending this year or US "will moderate its commitment."

— Steve Herman (@W7VOA) February 15, 2017

The Donald has once again put allies on notice that they better be ready to pay up in a Trump Presidency:

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said Friday he will continue to defend South Korea, but wants the Asian ally to pay more for American defense support.

Speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Trump also said that he’s willing to hold talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, but won’t go to the communist nation.

“As far as Japan and South Korea are concerned, all I’m saying is we defend them. They are paying us a tiny fraction of what it’s costing. I want them to pay,” Trump said. “I would love to continue to defend Japan. I would love to continue to defend South Korea. We have 28,000 soldiers on the line between North and South Korea right now.”

Trump has unnerved foreign countries, especially such allies as South Korea and Japan, as he has displayed deeply negative views of U.S. security commitments overseas, contending the U.S. should stop being the policeman of the world.

The real-estate tycoon has said that the U.S. should be prepared to end protection of allies unless they pay more. He even suggested allowing South Korea and Japan to develop their own nuclear weapons for self-defense so as to reduce U.S. security burdens.

“We are not a country that can afford to defend Saudi Arabia, Germany, the NATO nations, 28 NATO nations, many of which are not paying us and they’re not living up to their agreement,” Trump said on MSNBC. “Japan, South Korea, nobody, we’re like the dummies that protect everybody. All I’m saying is, we have to get reimbursed because we can’t afford it.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but I was glad to see Trump finally put some focus on Middle Eastern and European nations instead of just Korea and Japan.